Despite what conservative pundits, pollsters, and even Democrats were predicting, there was no red wave. More of a red ripple. Or a red droplet. Or maybe just a red fantasy.
The results are not all in yet, as of this writing, and they may not be for weeks, but there is still a path for Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives–which is still quite likely–though any majority will be razor thin. And there is still a path for Republicans to gain control of the Senate.
There are three remaining races still to be determined: in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada. Republicans need two of the three. It may well be that control of the Senate hinges once again on Georgia. But neither Republican Herschel Walker nor Democrat Raphael Warnock won a clear majority, which means, according to state law, that they will have to face each other in a run-off, with the Libertarian candidate who got 2% of the vote dropping out. But the runoff election will take on December 6! So we may not know which party will control the Senate until next month!
Here are some thoughts about the election:
• Why would we conservatives and Christians think we are in the majority? I think every political side just assumes that most people, if they only knew, would agree with them. But most Americans seem to be more progressive than we realize. I’m thinking that conservatives and Christians should start thinking of themselves as a minority group, and then plan how they might leverage that status.
• There are, however, conservative strongholds, with lots of electoral votes. In addition to Texas, which stayed red, we can add Florida, which used to be a “battleground state.” But in this election there actually was a red wave that, like the tidal surges of Hurricane Ian, struck Florida. Ron DeSantis not only won re-election as governor by a large margin (as contrasted with the first time he ran for that office, in which we won by a tiny margin), he even won in Democratic precincts, including Miami-Dade County! That takes political and governing skill, which will make him the hope of Republicans.
• Donald Trump’s stock has gone down. There apparently is not a vast horde of Americans so angry about inflation, crime, and President Biden and so large in number that they could put him back in the White House. A red wave would have indicated that this is a possibility. But if Americans will stick with Democrats despite all of these problems, which would usually mean a repudiation of the ruling party, they will surely not re-elect Trump. I’m seeing that some of his biggest supporters–see, for example, this at RedState–are starting to realize this. I read that only 15% of Americans consider themselves to be “MAGA Republicans.” That’s only one-third of Republicans. They are passionate and committed and can perhaps win primaries, but there is not enough of them to win elections.
• Can Republicans stop pushing celebrity candidates? Herschel Walker was a great running back, but what qualifies him for the Senate? Dr. Oz was a TV doctor, but what about that resume would make anything think he would be a good senator? I’m all for them, for national reasons, but they have no experience in running for office or for governing, and it shows. I am aware that those well-qualified for their offices, such as President Joe Biden, are not doing a good job either. But still.
What else? Give your analysis and observations in the comments.
Photo: A drop of red dye mixing with water by Eric Bégin via Flickr, CC 2.0.
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