The God Gap

Yesterday we posted about what some observers–including liberal Democrats–are calling a “great realignment” in American politics, as Democrats become the party of the affluent white middle class and Republicans become the party of the working class.

We discussed an article by David French, who goes over the analysis of two progressive political experts, who conclude that the culture war issues that consume white progressives–transgenderism, critical race theory, gun control, abortion, etc.–have little traction with the old Democratic base, including racial minorities. Wealthy Democrats, who are dominating the party, have the luxury to be concerned with such things, but voters with less money are struggling to survive the soaring inflation, so economic issues are what they care about most. But it isn’t just the economy–working class voters of all races, especially Hispanics, just don’t agree with the woke ideology pushed by white progressives.

French then argues that these experts, while making valid observations, are missing the biggest reason for the growing chasm between white progressives and minority voters: religion.

In his essay The God Gap Helps Explain a ‘Seismic Shift’ in American Politics, French cites a 2018 survey that found that the religious belief of non-white Democrats are closer to those of Republicans than they are to white Democrats. Specifically, 61% of nonwhite Democrats “believe in God as described in the Bible.” Only 32% of white Democrats have that belief. This is more in line with the 72% of white Republicans and the 60% of nonwhite Republicans who believe in the God of the Bible.

Since that study four years ago, the Democratic party has gone even further in staking positions that are far from traditional Christianity. Comments French,

We would be foolish to believe that religious differences this immense would not eventually manifest themselves in different political values. Ever since I first set foot on Harvard Law Schools’ campus more than 30 years ago, I’ve seen with my own eyes how utterly scornful many powerful white progressives are towards traditional Christianity.

Yet in scorning traditional or orthodox religious beliefs, secular progressives are often scorning indispensable members of their own coalition.

He quotes Yale law professor Stephen Carter (who is black):

Overall, people of color are more likely than whites to be Christians — and pretty devout Christians at that. Some 83 percent of all black Americans are absolutely certain that God exists. No other group comes close to this figure. Black Christians are far more likely than white Christians (84 percent to 64 percent) to describe religion as very important in their lives. Of all ethnic groups, black Christians are the most likely to attend services, pray frequently and read the Bible regularly. They are also — here’s the kicker — most likely to believe that their faith is the place to look for answers to questions about right and wrong. And they are, by large margins, the most likely to believe that the Bible is the literally inerrant word of God. In short, if you find Christian traditionalism creepy, it’s black people you’re talking about.

The same can be said of Hispanics, most of whom are strong Catholics and many of whom are evangelicals. French quotes a report that concluded, “Hispanic evangelicals identify as religious first and foremost.”

Yes. Absolutely. That’s exactly why a politics focused on mobilizing by race/ethnicity will not reach them, especially when identity politics is paired with hard-left cultural positions and hostility for traditional religion. Hispanic voters will find a religious connection with many, many white Republicans, and that religious connection can prove far more culturally and politically consequential than any effort to create a politics based on ethnic or racial identity.

Photo: “Pentecostal Gospel Service” by Tim Dennell viz Flickr CC 2.0