I had a conversation today with Lukas, my son, about polls. I have only one principle: use the most reliable or accurate poll in the previous elections. As a result, from what I’ve seen, the Rasmussen and Pew polls have been the most accurate. So I tend to look to see where they are on the swing states. Which informs us that the election is up for grabs. My son has another principle, or poll: Nate Silver. Now I’m aware... Read more