Elite Panel Assesses Mid-East Conflicts

Introducing Panel Members

The Council on Foreign Relations is an elite, non-profit think tank located in Washington, D.C. It produces the eminent Foreign Affairs magazine which is about U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. The CFR holds many panel forums open to the public, as they did Tuesday on Mid-East conflicts, especially those involving Israel. This panel discussion included host Vivian Salama posing questions to Senior Fellow Linda Robinson at CFR, Mid-East expert Suzanne Maloney at the Brookings Institution Center, Dr. Shibley Telhani at the University of Maryland, and Senior Fellow Steven F. Cook at CFR.

My Interest in U.S. Mid-East Policy

My interest in this one-hour panel discussion with Q&A from the online audience was because I’ve been a serious observer of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the 1973 War. I wrote a book on this conflict from the perspective of biblical eschatology, one of my two specialities in biblical studies, entitled Palestine Is Coming: The Revival of Ancient Philistia. Ever since this book was published, in 1990, events have been moving in the direction of a future scenario I lay out in the book. That is, according to certain biblical prophecies, there will be a Palestinian state, it will be located only in the coastal plain as a very expanded Gaza Strip, and Israel will annex all of the West Bank.

Panel Discussion Begins

Host Vivian Salama started the panel discussion by asking Linda Robinson to comment of the current status of the turmoil in the West Bank which has been exacerbated due to the horrific Hamas attack on far western Israel a year ago, on October 7, 2023, which resulted in about 1,200 Israeli Jews killed and 240 prisoners taken to the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) then began retaliation by invading Gaza in an ongoing war.

(Israel controls the West Bank, an “occupied territory” designated by the UN, with 2 million Palestinians living there and nearly a half million Jewish settlers living there in about 150 settlements.)

West Bank Status Since Hamas Attack on Israel

Ms. Robinson said that since the Hamas attack a year ago, Jewish settlers and IDF soldiers in the West Bank have increased hostilities in the West Bank resulting in 900 Palestinians killed there and 15,000 Palestinians injured. She added there have been 1,400 settler attacks there in 2024 and 5,000 displaced Palestinians. She concluded that “the ability to form a Palestinian state is almost impossible if Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues with his plans.” She said that because of this war in Gaza, which has resulted in almost 40,000 Palestinians killed, “U.S. relations are now at rock bottom.” President Joe Biden has been frustrated that Netanyahu refuses to follow his advice, even enlarging the war by attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Robinson therefore concluded that due to Israel’s resistance to U.S. overtures, in the future the U.S. will be forced to reevaluate its relationship with Israel.

Knesset Rejects Traditional Two-State Solution

Ms. Robinson also mentioned that recently The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, voted overwhelmingly against a two-state solution. However, I maintain in my book, published 34 years ago, that traditional two-state solution—with a Palestinian state being located in the two separated territories of the Gaza Strip and West Bank—has always been a non-starter based only on demographics and therefore there needs to be an alternative two-state solution, which I present in my book.

Ms. Salama then invited Dr. Shibley Telhani to speak on this subject. He laid out Israel’s overall military strategy in war. It is to avoid wars of attrition with a quick force military doctrine that was witnessed in Israel’s two victories over it Arab neighbors in the Six-Day War of 1967 and the War of 1973 that lasted three weeks. Thus, he said Israel current war against Hamas in Gaza is a departure from Israel’s military doctrine. He mentioned that the Netanyahu administration is now more right wing and thus even more opposed to a two-state solution and that wants to unilaterally annex at least the Jewish settlements in the West Bank to Israel. Telhani then posed the question everyone has been asking about “The Day After,” referring to what will happen to Gaza after this war since Israel has not addressed this question.

Ms. Salama then asked Steven Cook how the U.S. presidential election scheduled for this coming November 5th will affect this Mid-East conflict. Cook answered by saying both Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Kamala Harris, who are campaigning against each other for the presidency, have said they advocate a two-state solution. Cook said that although President Trump pulled the U.S. out of its agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, Trump was not otherwise tough on Iran, even regarding sanctions.

Suzanne Maloney then spoke, saying Harris will not differ from Biden’s Mid-East policies.

Ms. Robinson then said Vice-President Harris, not President Biden, was the first to call for a cease fire in Gaza. She added that it would be a huge mistake for Israel to re-occupy the Gaza Strip after the war there. Many experts have agreed with that.

Telhani Said Biden’s Israel Policy “Ineffective”

Mr. Telhani then alleged that President Biden has been “very ineffective” with his Mid-East policy. He said the Biden administration has refused to use leverage against Israel by threatening to uphold weapons delivered to it. The U.S. has notoriously armed Israel through the decades as its #1 ally, providing $3 billion per year or more in foreign aid, which now represents 15% of U.S. foreign aid.

Mr. Cook added that if Trump is reelected U.S. president, Israel’s right wing government will unilaterally annex at least 30% of the West Bank at Trump’s approval. He added that the U.S. does not possess political leverage against Israel because the Congress will not restrict arms with which it supplies Israel.

Questions and Answers

Ms. Salama then opened it up to Questions and Answers from the online audience. Mr. Telhani then responded to a question by saying the Palestinian Authority, which governs Palestinians in the West Bank, has lost its legitimacy, which is quite well known, especially among young Palestinians. The PA has long been accused of being financially corrupt. Telhani also said there is no path forward in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I maintain all the more that this shows there needs to be an alternative two-state solution.

One questioner asked, “What if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities?” That would certainly be against U.S. direction. No good answer was forthcoming to this question.

Ms. Maloney, however, replied by saying it would not set back Iran’s nuclear progress that much, maybe two years at the most. And she said there is no possibility of a political change in Iran with the current leadership. Thus, Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon cannot be stopped. She said the U.S. needs to focus on trying to cause a regime change in Iran. But I think doing that invites big problems.

Mr. Cook said the U.S. does not have a “normal relationship” with Israel, thus insinuating that the U.S. is partial to Israel compared to all other foreign countries. I agree with this and believe it is not healthy. I’ve maintained for a long time that the U.S. should have pressured Israel to prevent illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank by threatening to withhold foreign aid.

Mr. Telhani said “Biden’s failure,” that is, his preferential treatment of Israel, “has been personal.” He showed that by going to Israel last year, soon after the Hamas attack against Israel, and hugging Netanyahu. Telhani said Biden has often rejected advice from his advisors, such as Jewish Secretary of State Antony Blinken, regarding Israel.

Ms. Robinson said, “we should not assume Harris will follow Biden policy” in the Mid-East, that is, if she wins the election. She then said she does not agree with Mr. Cook about the U.S. not having leverage with Israel, asserting that this cannot be known since President Biden did not try to do so with Congress.

Ms. Maloney then made the last comment by saying the U.S. “will have to shift its policy toward Israel” due to U.S. important relationships in the rest of the world.

Ms. Salama closed the panel discussion by announcing that 2,700 people had been viewing this online discussion, which is a large number for CFR’s many such panel discussions that it hosts.