An unlikely question

This weekend I canvassed myself. (That sounds dirty, perhaps even illegal, but it's not.)

Eighteen months ago I moved about four blocks. I got to keep my home phone number, but I also crossed over into a new precinct. Thus my name turned up on a list of "infrequent voters."

A good chunk of my neighbors in the building also turned up on that list. Most of them seem, like me, to be frequent, habitual, dedicated voters — but also frequent movers.

This got me wondering about the polling data we're seeing and particularly about the categories of "likely" and "unlikely" voters.

Renters, it seems, are more likely to be considered unlikely votes because we tend to change addresses more often and thus not to create long histories of consistent voting in one location.

I'm just speculating here, but it seems that polls of "likely" voters may underrepresent the opinions of those of us who rent our homes. If this is the case, consider also that renters tend to be urban wage-earners. I would guess, then, that the majority of renters would tend to vote democratic.

In other words, it may be that polls of "likely voters" understate support for John Kerry.

We won't know until after the election, when we may just see a surprising number of these supposedly unlikely voters turn out. Or this may be wishful thinking.

In any case though, as I told myself last weekend when I knocked on my own door, the important thing is to get out and vote on Nov. 2.