Likelihood #2: Election Night Could Look Like “Victory” For One Side Or the Other . . . When It Isn’t
It is possible that there will be such a landslide for one side or the other that the Election Night results won’t change due to absentee ballots. But . . . well . . . #2020, right? And a reversal could play out on either side of the aisle. I’ll share the most likely version, first.
Polls consistently show that Biden voters are more likely to stay away from the polls than Trump voters, and vote absentee instead. So, November 3 vote tallies could easily show what appears to be a decisive Trump victory—when in fact a winning number of Biden votes are sitting on millions of paper ballots in election facilities. Days or weeks later, when those are counted, what will Trump voters think when suddenly their perception that “President Trump wins!” is changed to “Wait—what do you mean, Biden wins?”
Will ardent Trump supporters go “Oh, okay then”? Or will they get furious because they simply weren’t aware of or prepared for that possibility? Will it look like voter fraud, even if it is shown to be due to an expected surge in absentee balloting?
Similarly, what happens if (for example) a very high proportion of elderly Republican absentee voters vote absentee due to COVID-19, and election night looks like a victory for Biden, but millions of Trump votes on paper eventually turn the outcome? How are elated Biden-supporting (and, often, Trump-hating) voters going to respond if suddenly Trump secures enough absentee votes to win the election after all?
What happens if people don’t prepare themselves, their congregations or community, and their friends and family for the idea that overturning the seeming Election Night “victor” is not just a remote possibility but actually likely?
More worrisome—what happens if the final outcome is not viewed as legitimate?
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