OH WON’T YOU STAY JUST ALITO BIT LONGER (…sorry): David Wagner on Aaaaaaaaaaalito: “If the legislature is sane, the court should refrain!”

And Balkinization has a very interesting post:

If successful, Alito’s nomination will make Anthony Kennedy the median or swing Justice on the U.S. Supreme Court. In the past, Sandra Day O’Connor had held that powerful position, only occasionally displaced by Kennedy. Now it is largely Kennedy’s, with occasional displacements by Breyer.

Put another way, to understand what Alito’s appointment means for constitutional doctrine, instead of focusing on Alito’s views (which one assumes are reliably conservative), one needs to focus on Kennedy’s. We know that the new median Justice supports abortion rights claims a little less than O’Connor (Kennedy voted to uphold restrictions on partial birth abortion), supports gay rights claims a bit more than O’Connor (Kennedy wrote the opinion in Lawrence), thinks affirmative action is largely unconstitutional (Kennedy dissented in Grutter), thinks most campaign finance regulation is unconstitutional (Kennedy dissented (in part) in McConnell) and has been more likely to permit government endorsements of religion and state financial support for religion than O’Connor (Kennedy dissented in Mccreary County v. ACLU and joined Mitchell v. Helms). On federalism, it’s a mixed bag: Kennedy joined Raich v. Ashcroft but dissented in the two most recent section five cases, Tennesee v. Lane and Hibbs. On Presidential power, the position of the new median justice, interestingly enough, appears to be unchanged. Although Rehnquist and O’Connor and Rehnquist are gone, the Administration would still have lost Hamdi, because its position was opposed by Kennedy, Scalia, Stevens, Breyer, Souter, and Ginsburg.

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