Religious organizations that oppose gay marriage may lose tax exemption?

An exchange between a Supreme Court Justice and the Solicitor General:

Justice Alito: In the Bob Jones case, the [Supreme] Court held that a college was not entitled to tax-exempt status if it opposed interracial marriage or interracial dating. So would the same apply to a university or a college if it opposed same-sex marriage?

Donald Verrilli: It’s certainly going to be an issue. I don’t deny that. I don’t deny that, Justice Alito. It is — it is going to be an issue.

From Michael Avramovich,  Verrilli Spills The Beans – Mere Comments:

Mr. Verrilli, three times, did not deny that opposition to homosexual “marriage” will lead to tax-exempt status revocation for Christian entities, charities, schools, and universities that hold to traditional views on marriage if and when homosexual “marriages” are nationalized. . . .

Mr. Verrilli’s startling admission portends that churches, denominations, Christian hospitals, schools and universities, or any other Christian charity, that refuse to bend their knee to the homosexualist agenda, must be made to pay.

As you may recall, the Obama administration used the IRS to target conservative political groups, and so another Lois Lerner-wannabe may happily target Christian organizations with audits and other IRS mischief. (Incidentally, the traditional view of marriage is the same view held by both Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton a few years ago before they “evolved.”) Under Mr. Verrilli’s authoritarian application of the Bob Jones holding, federal (and local) governments could logically punish any non-sanctioned viewpoint.

The issue is not whether religious non-profits, including churches, should pay taxes.  Being entities that don’t have profits, their taxes would seldom be that high.  But they depend on donors.  The impact of losing non-profit tax status would come from donors being unable to deduct their gifts from their income taxes.  If donations slow down, many of these organizations couldn’t stay in operation.

I suspect that giving to churches would mostly continue, even despite the loss of the tax break.  I’m not sure about giving to other ministries and organizations.   What do you think about that?

And what do you think about the consequences should the government start to punish dissent over gay marriage in this way?  What percentage of churches and other religious groups would change their stance, and how many would hold on to their beliefs despite the consequences?