Last year about this time, we made our Predictions for 2022. Now that year is fading into history, so we can check to see who was right and who was wrong. And who wins the coveted Gluten Free Award, named after the reader who actually predicted COVID.
Our predictions were quite good this year. Many of them I would characterize as half right. Consider mine. I predicted that Donal Trump would lose his political clout (the jury is still out, but as of right now, I would say this is correct) and that he wouldn’t run for president (wrong). I said hot wars would develop with Russia invading Ukraine (that happened) and China invading Taiwan (that didn’t). I said that we would see a revival of Islamic terrorism and a major attack on the United States (didn’t happen, as far as I know, though I have heard that Al-Qaeda and ISIS are regrouping). I predicted that in the midterm elections Republicans would take over the House (that was right) and the Senate (that was wrong). So I would grade my predictions half right
Most who mentioned it predicted that Russia would not invade Ukraine. (Putin was rattling his saber when the predictions were made at the end of December, but he didn’t launch the invasion until Febrary 24.) But, again, some of you were half right.
Joe said that Russia would not invade (wrong) because they knew that the Ukrainians would fight hard (right). He cited the Slavic fatalism that would manifest itself in fierce fighting, even though they knew they would lose. He even quoted a Ukrainian poem to that effect. Joe was wrong that Russia wouldn’t risk its own fatalities and that the Ukrainians would lose. But he was right about the ferocity of the resistance. Again, half right.
Mark B predicted that inflation would soar (right) and that it would “be worse than seen under Jimmy Carter” (wrong). In Carter’s term, inflation reached 13.3% in 1979. In Biden’s term, inflation reached 7.1%, which was the worst since the Carter administration. Again, half right.
Quite a few of you predicted that COVID would downgrade from a pandemic to an endemic disease that we will just have to learn to live with. That’s pretty much what has happened so far, though that was fairly evident already last December. Quite a few of you predicted, as I did, that the House and the Senate would go Republican, with some of you accurately saying the margin would be very close. I don’t think anyone predicted a House and Senate split.
But let’s go to the Winner’s Circle, honoring those who made predictions that were candidates for the Gluten-Free Award. Though they didn’t quite make it they deserve our acclaim.
Winner’s Circle
In no particular order. . .
pcxian was right that “Russia will make an invasion into Ukraine but will not take over the entire country.”
RayRay said that the cryptocurrency bubble would burst.
Our foreign correspondents had some very good predictions. Setapart, from Australia, predicted that COVID would become endemic, food prices would soar, oil would hit $100 per barrel at the end of the year. (The price of oil did go over $100 per barrel for much of the year, reaching a near-record $140 in March, but at the close of the year, it reached its lowest point in 2022, $77.17.) Setapart also predicted that Queen Elizabeth would die (she did), and that Russia and Ukraine would not go war (they did), which was his only significant miss.
MoFin, from the UK, predicted the woes of inflation and that the Tory party would get rid of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. He would be replaced by Sajid Javid, who would become the nation’s first non-white Prime Minister. All correct, except that Rishi Sunak became the nation’s first non-white Prime Minister.
Chemical predicted that there would be a major discovery in astrophysics. (There probably was, though I couldn’t pinpoint one in particular. Keep in mind that for all of these predictions, I had to do research to see if they happened or not!) That COVID would become endemic. (Right.) That the House committee would recommend to the Department of Justice that Donald Trump should be indicted. (Impressive.) He also predicted that there would be fewer atheists commenting on Cranach. The reason is that atheists, of which he identifies as one, are leaving Patheos for a new all-atheist site called “Only Sky” (as in John Lennon’s “Imagine”). They took this action, he explained, because the bloggers on the atheist channel on Patheos were annoyed by all of the religious ads that pop up on their sites, as they do on all the others. (Chemical was correct about their being fewer atheists on Cranach, but he didn’t predict the real reason, which was Cranach going behind a paywall! Nobody saw that coming, including me!)
Illithid predicted Queen Elizabeth’s death and that Republicans would soften their stance against gay marriage. He thought that the Supreme Court would not overturn Roe v. Wade, but that the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health would put restrictions on abortion. Wrong about Roe v. Wade not being overturned, but he did say that those restrictions would create a political backlash, which did happen in the midterm elections.
Cary_W predicted that President Biden, failing to get the legislature to go along, would issue an executive order to forgive student loans. (He did exactly that, though a court blocked his action.) He also predicted that Roe v. Wade would not be overturned, but that restrictions on abortion would create a backlash, to the point that the Democrats would keep a small majority in both the House and the Senate. (Right about the Senate; wrong about the House.)
The Winners
As I said, some of you predicted restrictions on abortion and their political fallout. But then, among many other predictions, skyorrichegg said this: “11. Roe vs. Wade overturned. Abortion laws shift to state level.” I thought we had a winner.
But then right after his,
So the Gluten-Free Award for 2022 goes to
The first runner-up, who will assume the duties of the winner if he is unable to complete his term or must be ousted on moral grounds, is skyorrichegg!
What about the award for the worst prediction? Everyone did so well, including me–the incumbent winner or loser–that I thought about not awarding that prize this year. But then I read one of the few predictions that Rev. Aggie made that did not come true. He said, as his number one prognostication, “1. Texas A&M will win the national championship in football (if I keep predicting it, eventually I’ll be right).”
Maybe, but not last year, in which Texas A&M had “a 5-7 season, didn’t make a bowl, and now leads all of college football in having the most players in the transfer portal.”
So Rev. Aggie wins both the prize for best prediction and the prize for worst prediction.
Congratulations for that unparalleled achievement!
I must add that going through the 267 comments, which includes both predictions and rabbit trails, quite a few of them were by long-time commenter tODD, who died last year. I really miss him.
Come back tomorrow to make your predictions for 2023. That post will, like this one, emerge out from behind the paywall so that everyone can play.
Photo: President Harry Truman awarding the Yacht Club trophy to Danny Foster, winner of the Presidential Cup Regatta (1947), U. S. National Archives via Picryl, Public Domain
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