My 2016 presidential election prediction

My 2016 presidential election prediction November 8, 2016

Political scientists generally think that presidential elections can be predicted in large measure by fundamentals, such as the state of the economy and the incumbent president’s approval rating.

To make things fair, we file our predictions in early July, after the Q2 economic numbers are released. Political scientists tend to think that individual candidates and campaigns do not matter as much as most pundits and political operatives suppose. 2016 has tested the limits of that theory!

If I could change this, I might put Wisconsin and Florida in play for Trump. But I think this is a pretty good prediction 4 months later.

We’ll know tonight!


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