Blue Wave? Not So Much with Hispanic Voters

If you’ve turned on the news lately, you know that the media wants you to believe — to really, really believe — that there’s a coming wave of Democratic support emerging from the hearts of Americans…  so the message is clear: Donald Trump fans, be warned.  You may have had your moment in 2016, but it will be short-lived.

Of course, the evidence doesn’t actually support this.  For example, this National Journal article discusses how terribly Democrats are performing with Hispanic voters.  You know, those people that our President supposedly hates?  The ones who should be outraged over all his talk about “building the wall and making Mexico pay for it?”

Democrats counting on President Trump’s hard-line immigration policies to spark energized Hispanic turnout and a wave against GOP candidates in this year’s midterms will be surprised to see what’s transpiring. Even during the heat of the family-separation crisis, Democrats are underperforming in heavily Hispanic constituencies, from GOP-held border battlegrounds in Texas to diversifying districts in Southern California to the nation’s most populous Senate battleground in Florida.

If immigration affects the battle for Congress, it will be because of the anti-Trump backlash among suburban women as much as any increased mobilization in the Hispanic communities. The early returns are a sobering reminder for Democrats that, even as the Republican Party is becoming a more nativist institution, GOP candidates are still holding their own in diverse battlegrounds by distinguishing themselves from Trump.

He goes on to explain how the so-called “Blue Wave” is not yet apparent anywhere in America.  In Texas, for example, he discusses Will Hurd who should be — if you believe all the hype — one of the more vulnerable Republicans in the nation. He’s not:

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas once looked like one of the most vulnerable House Republicans, representing a border district where Hispanics make up 70 percent of the population—a seat Hillary Clinton carried by 4 points in 2016. Hurd has long been an independent GOP voice, emerging as a critic of Trump’s border-wall proposals and a supporter of a path to citizenship for Dreamers. But, as Democrats frequently bring up, he’s also a congressman whose partisan affiliation will help keep Republicans in charge of the House.

He’s in surprisingly good shape as he vies for a third term against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. Despite holding one of the 25 GOP seats that Clinton carried, he’s not on the list of The Cook Political Report’s most endangered 31 members. His Texas colleagues John Culberson and Pete Sessions, representing suburban Houston and Dallas districts where Republicans traditionally dominate, are in deeper trouble. It’s a crystal-clear sign that the anti-Trump anger is concentrated within whiter, affluent suburban communities, not the Hispanic battlegrounds with the most at stake.

In other words, that “blue wave” turned out to be a small swell, far out at sea, but it doesn’t look like it will make it to shore in November.

Hat Tip: National Journal

Image Credit: Elvert Barnes on Flickr