I had a conversation today with Lukas, my son, about polls. I have only one principle: use the most reliable or accurate poll in the previous elections. As a result, from what I’ve seen, the Rasmussen and Pew polls have been the most accurate. So I tend to look to see where they are on the swing states. Which informs us that the election is up for grabs.
My son has another principle, or poll: Nate Silver.
Now I’m aware that Nate Silver, a poker player and baseball stat guy, who blogs now at the (ever balanced ;)) NYTimes. His blog is called FiveThirtyEight is for some controversial. He uses a sophisticated algorithm and his numbers have been notably accurate in predicting elections. He has a lengthy post discussing the Pew and Rasmussen polls.
Steven Bronar puts Nate Silver to some tests, and finds him reliable but using a rather narrow range of data.
Nate Silver has said President Obama’s chances of winning are about 85%.
What say you? Which poll is your test? Are you betting against Nate Silver?