Contrary to the common impression, it turns out that the percentage of evangelicals in America is not declining after all.ย Thatโs the findings of the General Social Survey, considered the most reliable of ongoing polls.
Yes, the number of โNonesโ is also growing.ย There is now about the same number of โNonesโ as there is evangelicals, nearly one-quarter of Americans each.ย But the โNonesโ draw from a number of different groupsโnot evangelicals, as suchโand often someone who is a โNoneโ is converted and becomes an evangelical.ย (Interestingly, there is about the same percentage of Catholics as evangelicals and โNones,โ with each constituting about a quarter of the population.)
From Ryan P. Burge, Evangelicals Show No Decline, Despite Trump and Nones,ย in Christianity Today:
Evangelicals in the United States are holding steady at just under a quarter of the population, according to the latest biennial figures from the General Social Survey (GSS), one of the longest-running measures of religion in America. . . .
Evangelicalsโgrouped in this survey by church affiliationโcontinue to make up around 22.5 percent of the population as they have for much of the past decade, while the nones, now up to 23.1 percent themselves, keep growing. . . .
The fact that evangelicalsโ share of the population remains relatively stable over the last decade is striking given the continued rise of the nones. Evangelicals have been able to replace losses as fast as they are occurring, at least for now. Recent surveyย evidenceย has found that nearly 95 percent of born-again Christiansย stayed that wayย from 2010 to 2014, compared to just 85 percent of those who said that they were Protestant but not born-again. In addition, aย significant portionย of โnothing in particularโ respondents do make their way back to evangelical churches.
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There was even a small uptick in the number of Americans who are members of mainline Protestant denominations.ย This once dominant religious group has declined for the last twenty years, to merely 10% of Americans in 2016.ย But last year, that percentage rose to 11.8%.
That there are twice as many evangelicals (that is, Bible-believing, Gospel-believing Christians) as liberal Protestants is surely significant, refuting the liberalsโ claimโstrangely echoed by some evangelicalsโthat Christianity needs to be revised to be in accord with the modern world.
Still, evangelicals constitute a minority of Americans, as they always have.ย America is not an evangelical Christian nation.ย But this cultural disconnect is probably healthy for conservative Christians.ย It is also significant that they are still making converts, including from the ranks of the โNones.โ
For the 2018 General Social Survey dataโwhich includes information about a wide range of topicsโgo here.
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