The time has come for our annual New Year’s Eve ritual of checking the predictions we made during our annual New Year’s Day ritual of predicting what the new year will bring.
This will include bestowing the virtual Gluten Free Award for the best prediction of what would happen in 2025. Back in 2019, BernankeIsGlutenFree made the following prediction for 2020:
A “new” infectious disease originating in Asia or Africa will kill at least 150 people in North America and/or Europe before being contained (think SARS).
Yes, he predicted COVID! For that astounding feat, we have named the annual prize for the best prediction after him.
This year’s predictions were unusually thoughtful and on track. I appreciated especially the exchanges between Kerner and Axelbeingcivil, who modeled high-level, respectful argumentation between two people who disagree. Axel was being civil and Kerner was also being civil, resulting in a stimulating and illuminating discussion.
Even I did pretty well in my predictions, though despite their promising beginnings fell apart at the end. President Trump did apply the art of the deal to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza, and although this didn’t happen with Ukraine, he is still dealing as of this writing. He did not win the Nobel Peace Prize, however, but he did win the FIFA Peace Prize, which the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA in French) created just for him.
I said that woke progressivism would fade, which it has, but I was wrong that Democrats would return to old-fashioned liberalism. I said that Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative would create a “huge indignant uproar in Washington, D.C.,” which was correct, but this did not cause Republicans to return to old-fashioned conservatism, becoming once again the “cost-cutting, balanced budget party.”
Some predictions were only wrong because they didn’t go far enough. Dave K said, “Researchers announce a signal of potentially alien origin. Many other scientists dispute the artificial origin of the signal and the controversy is ongoing at the end of 2025.” There was no signal of potentially alien origin. But, even better, there was an object–maybe even a space ship!–of potentially alien origin, with the mysterious comet-identifying 3I/ATLAS. A Harvard scientist thinks it may be an alien vehicle, though, as Dave K says, many other scientists dispute this.
Steve Bauer predicted that Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Yes. And so did the United States!
Tom Herring predicted, “Bob Dylan appears in public wearing a red MAGA cap. The world ends shortly thereafter.” That did not happen in reality, though it did happen with fake AI-generated images. The world continues to end.
Other predictions were really close. Kerner predicted that Trump’s approval rating at the end of December would be higher than Biden’s was at the same point in his term. Actually, they are the very same at 43.1%!
Other predictions came true or came mostly true. Steve Bauer predicted that the medical industry would be using drones to deliver health care to homes. This is happening, especially in Africa and India, where drones are used to deliver blood for transfusions, vaccines, and other medications in hard-to-reach areas. Though not organs for transplant, as in the Monty Python movie Steve referenced. And police departments have really gotten into drones, as he predicted. I found a source saying that in some departments, drones are used as first responders–when dispatchers get a 911 call, the first thing they do is send out a drone.
And now let us go to the Winners’ Circle.
First, we much announce a new award. Axelbeingcivil predicted terrorist attacks at the beginning of 2025 and abuse of immigrants by I.C.E. Whereupon Kerner pointed out that terrorists had already struck in New Orleans and Las Vegas earlier on January 1, and Amaryllis pointed out that 308 complaints of sexual assault had already been filed against I.C.E. employees. This prompted Axel to say,
Y’know, I’m just being a regular retro-Nostradamus at this point; very good at predicting stuff that already happened.
So we will inaugurate the Retro-Nostradamus prize, making Axelbeingcivil the first recipient.
The runner-up to this prize, who will assume its duties if the winner is unable to fulfill them, is SKJam! He predicted: “Some major public building will be renamed after Jimmy Carter.” Carter died in the closing days of 2024, on December 29, at the age of 100. A number of buildings have been named for him in Georgia, as has a nuclear submarine. The major public building renamed for him is Maury Hall at the Naval Academy in Annapolis. Maury was a noted oceanographer who resigned his commission in the U.S. Navy to serve with the Confederacy. Carter was the first Naval Academy graduate to become president, so the building, which houses the Engineering Departments, was renamed Carter Hall. But this happened in 2023.
Now, the coveted prize (currently unnamed) for the worst prediction. The runner-up is reg, who said that Trump would not be in office by next New Year’s Day because of health issues. He is still here. (But reg, you might want to recycle that guess for tomorrow’s contest.) Reg also predicted that Trump would not even be certified as president on January 20. He was.
But the winner of the worst prediction is Kerner for his belief that with Spanish-speaking Cuban-American Marco Rubio is Secretary of State, we will forge closer ties to Latin American nations. I suppose the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which claims the right of the U.S.. to totally dominate the hemisphere, is a closer tie, though I’m not so sure about the Gulf of America, the immigration crackdown, and military action against Venezuela.
But Kerner not only won the Worst Prediction, he also won the Best Prediction, though the Gluten Free Award will be shared this year. He claimed, “The US budget deficit in fiscal year 2021 [Biden’s first year in office] was $2.772T. In fiscal year 2025, it will be less than that.” This was completely counter-intuitive. Axelbeingcivil made an unspecified bet: “I offer a counter-wager. . . . The budget deficit in 2024 was 1.68 trillion. In 2025, it will be more than that. At a guess, I’d say at least 2 trillion, probably closer to 2.2, but we shall see.”
According to my research, in 2025, the Federal Deficit was $1.78 trillion. That is $992 billion–almost a trillion–less than in 2021. This is also less than 2024, when the deficit was $1.84 trillion. That means the 2025 deficit is $6 billion lower than last year. (Axel’s numbers are different at $1.68 trillion for 2024. I’m getting my figures from U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data.)
That kind of precise, surprising prediction tends to the win the prize. But Kerner made a number of other mostly-true predictions, along with just a few misses.
But he is going to have to split the Gluten Free Prize with Joe, who also won in 2019. Joe made a number of specific, far-from-obvious predictions. He was right about all of them but two: Right that there would be no ceasefire in Ukraine. Right that the FDA would start banning food additives, including Red Dye #3 (banned) and Yellow Dye #5 (in the process of being banned). Right that Syria’s new ruling party would be moderate, despite its terrorist past, to the point of giving legal protection to Christians, Jews, and Kurds, and allowing a French and American military presence. Right that the University of Wisconsin would win the Women’s Hockey championship. Wrong only that conservative Brad Schimel would win the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin and that the NCAA would set limits on the transfer portal.
So congratulate Kerner and Joe, as well as the other winners. (Some of them may not be subscribers–this contest is open to all–so if you know them and have their e-mail addresses, which I don’t, let them know.)
And come back tomorrow with your predictions for 2026!
Photo: A Man Receiving an Award by RDNE Stock project: https://www.pexels.com/photo/a-man-receiving-an-award-7005678/ via Pexels, free photos
Ad-Free & Subscriber Log-In