What This Proves?

What This Proves? May 13, 2015

I’d say this establishes that the progressive/liberal wing is in the ascendancy in the media and in denunciations while the traditional/conservative may well be the majority?

Andrew Wilson, on the recent elections in England:

What is striking, however, is just how far this phenomenon extends. What confounded the pollsters was not the people who voted Tory but wouldn’t admit it to their neighbours by sticking signs on their lawns, but the people who voted Tory and wouldn’t admit it to a political pollster whom they have never met and will never hear from again. So great is the cultural pressure not to admit that you are going to vote Conservative, that a statistically significant number of people would not disclose their true intentions, even to an anonymous caller. What people actually believe, and what they say they believe, are different enough to confound every polling organisation, the entire political commentariat and most citizens of the UK, and prompt an official inquiry into the inaccuracy of the polls (not to mention the aforementioned resignations and inevitable soul-searching).

I think that has some interesting implications. Many people believe things that they wouldn’t own up to in polite society, because of the power of cultural pressure, public shame, and so on. They know the answer they are supposed to give when asked about the issue, and they give it, even if it is not what they really think. But when given a context in which they can state or act on those beliefs without fear of recrimination, like a secret ballot, they do so. Not only that, but the “true” view is decidedly more conservative (with a small “c”) than the “stated” view, because, no matter what people say about the Murdoch papers, fashionable opinion in the UK is still broadly leftish. So here’s a thought. Following that logic, it may be that a fair number of the things Christians say which attract predictable outrage, like “sex is only for a man and a woman in marriage”, or “unborn children should not be killed”, or “men and women are different”, are actually agreed with by a whole bunch of people who wouldn’t dare admit it. Perhaps they would disown those statements when asked about them, and bluster about them in suitably offended tones, but deep down, actually agree. You never know: it might extend to more theological statements, like “one day we will all face judgment”, or “not every religion can be true”, or even “I have sinned, and I need saving.”


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