That CBS Poll – UPDATED

CBS’s latest poll shows President Bush’s approval rating at an all-time low, which is really not surprising given the enormous hype of Cheney-gate followed immediately by the “what is he nuts” story of the UAE buying control of some of our ports from the English. (Full Disclosure: I was one of the critics until Buster set me thinking…).

Kathryn Jean Lopez at NRO was quick to notice the weighting issue that she suggested made the poll a “dirty” one.

Note the respective numbers of Republicans and Democrats:

GOPers: 272 (weighted up to 289)
DEMs: 409 (weighted down to 381)
INDs: 337 (weighted up to 348)

This is NOT representative of the electorate.

True ‘dat. Ankle Biting Pundits called it The Latests MSM Garbage Poll and remarked: Well, given that the poll was of adults only, not even registered voters and that 3 of the 5 nights were weekends, we’re not surprised. Even the Washington Post’s poll director has said weekend polls show low numbers for the President.… this poll is not even close to reflecting who’s going to show up to vote on elections day. It certainly won’t be a more Democratic electorate by a 10% margin. That much I can guarantee.

True ‘dat, also.

Except that I’ve held for a while that while the Democrats may not hold a 10% margin in the electorate, the nation as a whole may be getting so weary of the constant pounding of one exhaustively reported upon “Bush scandal” after another that it is perhaps getting worn down. I can see where many Americans, particularly the type who only read the headlines and move along, will look at ’06 and ’08 with “Bush-hate-fatique” and with “media tantrum fatique” and say “we need a change – ANYTHING but more Bush hate. ANYTHING but more snotty reporters having a tantrum because their party is not in power, too! Let’s give them what they want, put the Democrats back in charge, and the news will go back to being good all the time and 4.7% unemployment will be Full Employment once again!”

I’m not saying all members of the press won’t be happy until their party is back in power, again, mind you. Just…ohhhh…86% of them! :-)

Anyway, Vaughn Ververs, my favorite guy at Public Eye has taken a look at the poll and relates how the CBS polling unit describes it – then remarks: Other pollsters use different methods of weighting than the U.S. Census breakdowns, but this is commonly accepted method of polling. He links to Mystery Pollster who says he plays with the numbers and find them about the same.

What does all this mean? It means that President Bush is still being stymied by his own inability to sell something that he clearly believes in. It means that his communications people in the WH have fallen down very badly on the Dubai issue – so badly that I don’t know if they will be able to “get up.” It means it’s time to stop pussy-footing around with Dan Bartlett and get Karen Hughes back into the WH, or they’ll never move another initiative and “lame duck” will take on a new and more intensive meaning than we’ve ever seen. These poll numbers are not surprising, under the circumstances. And they’re not going to come back up, either, unless President Bush can talk plainly and clearly about what he wants and why he wants it.

Hugh Hewitt notes that President Bush doesn’t seem to mind the debate.

UPDATE: Kathryn Lopez has posted and extensive look at the poll and at what is going wrong right now. You’ll really want to read this. It gives lots of reasons why the poll is a stinker, and an unserious one, at that, meant to bring headlines, not real information.

WELCOME Public Eye and CQ readers: While you’re here, please look around – today we’re also talking about Myra Bradwell, the Vaginahabi Jihad, Good guys and bad guys, why David Warren is as smart as Mark Steyn and we’re looking at the eve of Ash Wednesday.