NeverTrump conservatives thought they might have a candidate they could vote for when ex-CIA agent and ex-Republican Congressional staffer Evan McMullin threw his hat into the ring.
But inconsistencies and questions have arisen about his resume (HT: Carl Vehse). Also, Maggie Gallagher has pointed out his weakness on issues important to social conservatives. (For example, he is OK with gay marriage, says little about life issues beyond not wanting taxpayer money to pay for abortions, says little about religious liberty, etc.)
And yet, Josh Gelertner shows a scenario in which he actually could win. All McMullin, a devout Mormon, has to do is win Utah. And then neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton would win a majority of electoral votes, throwing the election to the House of Representatives. Each state has one vote. Republicans control 32 delegations, Democrats have 15, and 3 are tied. So no way would Clinton win. Gelertner believes Democrats would throw their support to McMullin, and enough Republican states would have voted against Trump to justify their turning to McMullin as a compromise. You can see Gelertner’s math after the jump.
But his victory also hinges on nobody voting for him outside of Utah.
From Josh Gelertner, Evan McMullin, Independent Candidate: Does He Have a Chance? | National Review:
If McMullin could force the election to the House, he has a decent chance. A better chance than Hillary, in fact, who would have none: When the House decides a presidential election, each state delegation gets one vote. Currently, 32 state delegations have Republican majorities, 15 have Democratic majorities, and 3 are tied. That rules out Hillary. If House Democrats are sincere when they talk about Trump being dangerous, they would cast their 15 votes for McMullin. (If they’re cynical enough to gamble that a President Trump would guarantee a Democratic president four years from now, then they vote for Hillary.) As a compromise candidate, McMullin would also, presumably, get the votes of the three tied delegations. Bringing him to 18 votes. Add Utah, and he has 19. He would have to swing 7 more state delegations to beat Trump. And that’s possible: of the remaining Republican-delegation states, several will have voted for Hillary in the general election. Probably Colorado, probably Wisconsin, possibly Iowa, possibly Nevada, possibly North Carolina. That would give them cover to choose a compromise candidate. Additional states with Republican delegations could justify voting McMullin instead of Trump because they voted against Trump in the primaries: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, and Idaho.
[Keep reading. . .]
Now Gelertner pretty much takes back even this unlikely scenario when he said that McMullin must run only in Utah, since a national campaign could siphon off enough votes to elect Clinton. So even if you want him to win, you”d better not vote for him.
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