Religion and Politics: The Early Indicators

From Barna’s newest report:

In the most recent presidential elections, the faith communities of America have played a major role in electing presidents and other important public figures. Breaking down the survey data by more than a dozen religious segments regularly tracked by The Barna Group, the numbers take on yet a different contour. For instance, among evangelical Christians – the 7% of the population who are most concerned about moral issues (among other considerations) and are most involved in religious activity – the favorites are clearly Mr. Huckabee (88% favorable, 11% unfavorable) and Mrs. Palin (79% favorable, 21% unfavorable). There is less warmth directed towards Mr. Gingrich (57% – 37%), Mr. Romney (56% – 29%) and Mr. Paul (51% – 26%). However, all five of those individuals are clearly favored by evangelicals more so than Mr. Obama (6% favorable, 94% unfavorable).

A larger religious segment – and a pivotal group in the last three elections and a group that is considerably less conservative than its evangelical subset – are born again Christians. Currently, the best favorability numbers from this group have been earned by Mr. Huckabee (58% favorable, 27% unfavorable) and Mr. Romney (49% – 33%). Mrs. Palin is somewhat less popular among born again adults (53% – 45%), while Mr. Gingrich struggles with this group (43% – 47%). Dr. Paul is generally viewed favorably by born agains, but is less well-known among them (39% – 31%). 

Although about four out of every five Americans consider themselves to be Christian, the one out of five who do not represents more than 40 million adults. The two primary segments tracked by the Barna Group in that regard are those who are religious Skeptics (e.g., atheists and agnostics) and people who align with a faith group that is not Christian. Each of those groups constitutes about 10% of the national adult population.

Those who are from non-Christian faith communities generally like President Obama. His favorability rating among them is 61% positive, 38% negative. In contrast, not a single Republican potential candidate has a favorability rating that is more positive than negative among this faith audience: Gingrich (20% – 67%), Huckabee (30% – 59%), Palin (17% – 80%), Paul (31% – 53%), Romney (35% – 54%).