The Winning Predictions for 2018

December 31, 2018 By Gene Veith

It’s New Year’s Eve, the last day of the year, when the ball drops in Times Square and the Cranach blog reviews readers’ predictions for the year just past. This exercise culminates in awarding the virtual, nonexistent traveling trophy for the best prediction of them all.

The predictions for 2018–you can see them here–were thoughtful and, though most were wrong, were not too far wrong. A number dealt with the Mueller investigation, which is still dragging on, so we don’t yet know who is right and who is wrong about what will come of it.

Several dealt with North Korea, including some predictions of armed conflict between the United States and Kim Jong Un. This time last year, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un were engaged in an escalating war of words and insults. Wh0 could have guessed that since then, these two heads of state would have held a summit meeting, leading President Trump to say “we fell in love”? Who could have predicted that these two would “cozy up”? SKJAM, that’s who, although he made that prediction for 2017, for which we gave him the prize for worst prediction!

I thought he was wildly wrong, but he was just wildly prescient. His foresight was such that he was seeing not just one year ahead but two years ahead! Sorry, SKJAM! This just goes to show that even bad predictions can come true eventually, that losers can actually be winners, and it isn’t over even when it’s over, all of which should be an encouragement to us all.

The sports predictions were pretty much all wrong. So were most of the political predictions. Foreign affairs predictions were all over the place, with some right, some wrong, and some to be determined.

There were some predictions that were right in principle, though wrong in detail. tODD said Brexit would be officially halted due to issues with Ireland. It’s not “officially” halted, just paused in confusion, due in part to issues with Ireland. Reg said that the DOW would drop 2,000 points in a single day. The DOW dropped over 5,000 points–in 800, 500, 400 daily increments, not 2,000–over the last couple of months, but reg was right to forecast a big drop in the stock market.

There were some predictions that were definitely on target: TimLaCroix predicted that the 2018 economy would strengthen until Trump would start a trade war with China and things would slow down. (I don’t think the trade war is the main factor in the stock market woes, but Tim was insightful in predicting it.) JDB said that several more states would legalize marijuana. (I don’t know if he would have predicted that Utah would be among them, at least for medical purposes.) SAL foresaw more socialist candidates among the Democrats, following in Bernie Sanders’ wake. (That happened.) RevAggie98 predicted the Supreme Court would rule in favor of the Christian baker in Masterpiece Cakes v. Colorado. (That happened.)

The Supreme Court figured in some good predictions. Darren Jones predicted that Justices Kennedy and Ginsberg would both leave the Supreme Court, one by death and one by resigning. Justice Kennedy did resign; Justice Ginsburg did not die, though she had surgery for lung cancer. Jeremiah Oehlerich predicted that a justice will step down, followed by a big fight over his replacement, who would change the balance of the court for a long time. That certainly happened, with the tumultuous conflict over Judge Kavanaugh!

Those might have been in the running, except that we have a clear, undoubtable winner. The envelopes, please. . . .

The LOSER, for worst prediction: Me. I predicted that the #MeToo movement would lead to a reaction against the pornography industry. That has not happened. Far from it.

RUNNER UP: Saelma predicted that the price of gasoline would fall below $2.00. That did not seem likely this time last year. But I just paid $1.66 in Ponca City, Oklahoma, a few days ago. Saelma also predicted that the leaders of Cambodia would purge opponents and move towards a dictatorship. That also happened.

The WINNER: Kerner, for three highly specific quantifiable predictions of uncanny accuracy. Here is what he said:

Economic growth for the year will average no less than 2.9% [Actual growth rate: 2.9%]

At some point during the year unemployment will dip below 4%. [Actual unemployment rate: 3.7%]

As a result of the midterm elections, Republicans will have at least 53 senate seats going into 2019. [Actual number: 53]

Congratulations, Kerner! How did you know this? If any of you have any money, I would suggest that you let Kerner manage it for you.

Last year’s winner, stefanstackhouse, who won for his prediction of China militarizing the islands of the South China Sea, will pass on his imaginary crown to Kerner, whom we will all honor for an entire year.

Tomorrow, New Year’s Day: Make your predictions for 2019!

Illustration by Mark Weaver, “Why Do We Need Predictions?” via Flickr, Creative Commons License

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The Worst Predictions of 2018

December 28, 2018 By Gene Veith

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Lots of people make predictions, but few check them for accuracy. We here at the Cranach Institute do! Be here on Monday for our review of the 2018 predictions made at this blog, at which time we will also virtually crown the winner of the best prediction. And be here Tuesday to make your predictions for 2019, in hopes of winning the competition on the next New Year’s Eve.

In the meantime, Zack Stanton and Derek Robertson at Politico have also been checking people’s predictions. They have compiled a list of the worst political predictions of 2018. We’ll do the same on Monday, as we also have the custom of awarding virtual booby prizes to the most humorously inaccurate of the predictions.

Below are the 20 predictions that Stanton and Robertson considered to have earned the distinction of being the “worst.” They are ranked in reverse order. Go to the article link to read about each one. The Politico writers also give the name of the person who was wrong along with a useful link to the prediction. Read these, and then I will show some predictions that were much worse than these.

From Zack Stanton and Derek Robertson, The Worst Political Predictions of 2018:

20. In 2018, Trump will resign as president, Netanyahu will resign as Israel’s prime minister and Trump will not move the U.S. Embassy in Israel.
Made by: David Rothkopf

19. [Democrat] Joe Crowley will be the next speaker of the House.
Made by: Matt Fuller

18. Impeachment proceedings will begin against Trump.
Made by: Edward Luce, Financial Times

17. John Kelly will root out and “publicly humiliate” the author of the anonymous New York Times op-ed [about staff members controlling Trump] within days of its release.
Made by: Sebastian Gorka

16. “Trump will be denied another Supreme Court nomination.”
Made by: Andrew Klausner, Forbes

15. Mueller will end his probe before the midterm elections and declare Trump “innocent.”
Made by: Bill Mitchell

14. The Mueller investigation will “be put to rest” and “no significant charges will be leveled against anyone.”
Made by: Glenn Beck

13. Mueller’s investigation will end by September.
Made by: Rudy Giuliani

12. The New York Times would be proven wrong in reporting that Trump tried to fire Mueller.
Made by: Sean Hannity

11. “Trump will not pardon anyone, unless it’s a family member.”
Made by: Steve Deace

10. Trump will “ramp up construction” of the wall and reauthorize DACA.
Made by: Siraj Hashmi, Washington Examiner

9. Republicans lose the House and Senate, leading to the impeachment of … President Paul Ryan.
Made by: Scott Dworkin

8. A “RED WAVE!” would crash over the 2018 elections.
Made by: Donald Trump

7. “The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory.”
Made by: Newt Gingrich, Fox News

6. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski will kill Brett Kavanaugh’s court nomination.
Made by: Ben Shapiro

5. Trump will end the year with a 25 percent approval rating.
Made by: Frida Ghitis, CNN

4. Dianne Feinstein will be vulnerable to a challenge from her left.
Made by: Sean McElwee and Jon Green

3. More black Americans will be “on the Trump Train” at the end of 2018.
Made by: Diamond & Silk

2.“Our economic news is only going to get brighter in 2018.”
Made by: Laura Ingraham, Fox News

1. Amazon will place HQ2 in Boston.
Made by: Wells Fargo AI [A computer tasked with predicting where the new headquarters will be located.]

Yes, this list reads like crowing over some over-optimistic comments by Trump supporters. So here are some others I found.

Vikram Mansharamani of PBS made some predictions for “2018 and Beyond.” Some of them were pretty good, having to do with economics and international affairs. There was the obligatory global warming apocalypse prediction of melting ice-caps forcing coastal cities to start moving their populations. He was right that there was a major earthquake in the Pacific Northwest–in Alaska–but it didn’t displace millions. And he was quite wrong about some countries tying their currencies to Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency whose value has plummeted this year.

But the worst prediction, which beats any of Politico’s top 20 in my opinion, is that consumption of edible insects “surges.” I know there have been efforts to encourage the general public to move to this abundant protein source, but I haven’t noticed a great “surge” in demand. Has that happened where you live?

A particularly interesting set of predictions came in 1968 when 1,000 guests were invited to a conference to hear a dozen experts predict what things will be like 50 years later in 2018. Amidst the obligatory environmental apocalypse and the extrapolations of 1960s peace and free love, the experts did foresee the expansion of computers and predicted their interconnection in something like the internet.

But then there were some that were off the mark. We have not, for example, suppressed lightning (which was to have happened by the 1980s). And we have not, to my knowledge, perfected the anti-gravity belt.

The predictions were published in a book entitled Toward the Year 2018, which is still available.

Paul Collins tell s the tale in the New Yorker. Read his account of the gathering, including the controversy it provoked from 60s radicals and its failure, by today’s standards, to invite any women to participate. He quotes the blurb on the book, which will give you a flavor of not only the predictions but the excited optimism of the time:

“More amazing than science fiction,” proclaims the cover, with jacket copy envisioning how “on a summer day in the year 2018, the three-dimensional television screen in your living room” flashes news of “anti-gravity belts,” “a man-made hurricane, launched at an enemy fleet, [that] devastates a neutral country,” and a “citizen’s pocket computer” that averts an air crash. “Will our children in 2018 still be wrestling,” it asks, “with racial problems, economic depressions, other Vietnams?”

We do have pocket computers in 2018! We are also still wrestling with racial problems, economic depressions, and other Vietnams. Such facets of the human condition do not change.

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Make Your Predictions for 2018!

January 1, 2018 By Gene Veith

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Happy New Year! A time to look ahead! A time to make your predictions for 2018!

The custom on this blog on New Years Day is for readers to predict what they think will happen over the course of the year ahead. Then, once the year is over, on or around the next New Year’s Eve, we will revisit those predictions and see who made the best one. (See this for what I’m talking about.)

Certainly 2018 opens with lots of questions looming. Will the new tax cuts be a catalyst for economic growth, or will they bankrupt the country? In the midterm elections in November, will Republicans hold on to the House and Senate, or will Democrats take over? Will the Robert Mueller investigations prove fruitless, or will they find grounds to impeach the president? Will we have a war with North Korea?

Can the Golden State Warriors be knocked out of the NBA championship? Are the New York Yankees back? Can Hollywood think of a new idea or are they going to keep ransacking their old comic book collection and remaking the movies they have already made? Will artificial intelligence attain the singularity? Will the #me too movement lead to a backlash against sexual permissiveness? Will there be a Christian revival in 2018 or overt persecution?

The predictions can be weighty or light, serious or whimsical. Winning predictions will likely be highly specific. They tend to seem highly unlikely at the time they are made, but then, to our surprise, they happen anyway. The winning prediction makes us think, “How could anyone possibly know THAT was going to happen?”

I’ll go first:

I predict that the sexual counter-revolution will continue. In 2018, hackers will break into a porn site, as they did with that adultery site Ashley Madison in 2015, posting the names of all of the users. This public shaming will wreak havoc, but it will spark an anti-pornography backlash. Internet providers, now that they don’t have to worry about net neutrality, will start filtering porn sites in earnest. Laws will be passed against pornography, getting around free speech considerations by defining it in terms of abusing women. In response to social and legal pressure, pornography will retreat to the dark net.

I predict that as Hollywood keeps looking for new movie ideas in old comic books, they will finally get around to some of my favorites:

Turok, Son of Stone (Native Americans + dinosaurs. A sure hit!)

Uncle Scrooge McDuck (Donald’s rich uncle, who lives in a money-bin with a fountain of dimes and mountains of cash. Genuinely funny stories, or at least they seemed so at the time.)

The Atom. (A superhero who can shrink to the subatomic level. Hollywood tried the Ant-Man, but the Atom can go smaller. Plus they could do things with quantum paradoxes that the comic books didn’t know anything about at the time.)

The Silver Surfer. (Existential angst from a being who rides a surfboard through outer space.)

So what do YOU think will happen in 2018?

Illustration, 2017 Jumping Happy New Year 2018, from MaxPixel, CC0, Creative Commons

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Checking the Predictions for 2019

December 31, 2019 By Gene Veith

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We celebrate New Years’ Eve by staying up past midnight, singing Auld Lang Syne, and checking our predictions for 2019! This year we had an unusually high number of correct predictions, which is a tribute to you readers of this blog. But we also had a clear winner, a prediction with uncanny specificity.

Before we get to the main event, you might want to read 20 predictions for 2020: Here’s what people said would happen by this year, in which USA Today writer Grace Hauck checked the predictions of experts from decades ago. They include anti-gravity belts, the end of nationalism, and a democratic China. Your predictions were much better than the experts!

So let’s get to our contest. You can read the complete predictions at Make Your Predictions for 2019.

There were lots of predictions about Donald Trump, most of which involved Trump being Trump. Once again, I was wrong in thinking he would resign to get a pardon from President Pence. Curiously, though there were six predictions regarding impeachment, most of those concluded that he would not be impeached. Only one person, Steve Bauer, predicted that Trump would be impeached, though it was not due to the Muller report, as he said it would be.

Quite a few of you predicted a slumping economy, whereas by most measures the economy is still soaring. Setapart said that the stock market would be below 23,327 (I love that level of specificity), but it’s way over 28,o00. Saelma said that the price of a barrel of oil would be over $100. Right now, it’s $61.68. Back in 2018, Saelma won runner-up for predicting that the price of a gallon of gas would be dramatically lower, less than $2.00, which actually happened, back in 2018.

Sports predictions were all wrong, except for one. No one expected the Super Bowl champion would be the New England Patriots (though it’s nearly always the Patriots!). Or that the NCAA football champion would be Clemson. Or that hockey’s Stanley Cup would be won by St. Louis. Or that the World Series would be won by the Washington Nationals. However, Kirk correctly forecast that the NBA champions would be the Toronto Raptors.

I was going to give the much-coveted consolation prize for the worst prediction to Tom Hering, who thought that the world will react against screens in favor of real-life contact. But in the specifics that he cites, Tom was right. He was actually correct that hard-copy, paper books would outsell e-books and that the number of independent bookstores is growing. And “shopping in a specialty store” still far exceeds shopping online, which, though it has shot up 19% over last year, still comprises just 15% of retail sales. His point that “vintage media” would do well seems to be on target, though 80% of the revenue in the music industry this year came from streaming, as opposed to “listening to albums on a good stereo.”

For his counter-intuitive observations, I will move Tom into the Winners’ Circle. Along with Kirk for his basketball pick and Steve Bauer for predicting Trump’s impeachment. There were also other very good predictions.

For international politics, Ian Stewart was correct in saying that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would be re-elected and that Conservative Party head Andrew Scheer would resign. Guest predicted that Teresa May would step down as UK prime minister, bringing on a leadership election. Brexit was mentioned by quite a few of you, but always to say that it would not happen. But with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, thanks to a Tory landslide and a Parliamentary vote to approve his exit plan, it looks like the UK will, in fact, secede from the European Union on January 31.

Setapart came close in predicting that 2009 would be the hottest year on record. Actually, it was the second hottest, tying with 2017. The hottest year was 2016. The next part of the prediction, though, that the last five years would be the hottest years in history, came true. Sven had a similar correct prediction in saying that 2019 would be in the top three.

Sven was also right in saying that Avengers: Endgame would set the record for the biggest opening weekend box office.

Another movie industry prediction wins runner-up honors. Jeremiah Oehlerich predicted that no one would host the Oscars. That’s exactly what happened as the scheduled host, comedian Kevin Hart, fell victim to the cancel culture when his Tweets were discovered from 2011 that made fun of gays. At the very last minute, the Academy Award decided not to have any host at all. These are hard time for comedians, especially for those who made their reputation from “pushing the boundaries,” since most of them have material in their past that violates the strict rectitude of today’s standards of hyper-sensitivity. And there is no forgiveness or statute of limitations.

The winner of the 2019 virtual prize for best prediction is, I think, clear cut, yet another guess that staggers the mind. Joe predicted that “Russia will block the Kerch Strait isolating the Ukrainian port cities of Mariupol and Berdyansk.” Huh? Kerch Strait? Mariupol? Berdyansk? I had to do some research on this one, but I found this, dated 3 April 2019, saying that the Russians are indeed blockading the Kerch Strait, specifically mentioning those cities: “The duration of the artificial detention of vessels in the Kerch Strait heading for Mariupol or Berdiansk remains three or four times higher than before the blockade.”

So, Joe, for your knowledge of the Ukraine and in light of that country’s recent impact on the United States, you are this year’s winner. (You aren’t a Ukrainian agent trying to influence our elections, are you? Are you an oligarch? Is your last name Biden?)

Image by mohamed Hassan from Pixabay

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Make Your Predictions for 2019!

January 1, 2019 By Gene Veith

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Happy New Year! It is now the Year of the Lord 2019! What do you think will happen this year? Today, New Year’s Day, in addition to watching the Rose Bowl Parade, recovering from the previous night’s revelry, and eating your regional good-luck food (black-eyed peas here in Oklahoma), we celebrate by making predictions.

Our annual contest begins. Here are my explanations from last year:

The custom on this blog on New Years Day is for readers to predict what they think will happen over the course of the year ahead. Then, once the year is over, on or around the next New Year’s Eve, we will revisit those predictions and see who made the best one. . . .

The predictions can be weighty or light, serious or whimsical. Winning predictions will likely be highly specific. They tend to seem highly unlikely at the time they are made, but then, to our surprise, they happen anyway. The winning prediction makes us think, “How could anyone possibly know THAT was going to happen?”

Read yesterday’s post “The Winning Predictions for 2018” to see the kind of thing we are looking for and how we will be judging your predictions on the next Near Year’s Eve.

The next year should be pretty momentous. We should finally get the results of the Mueller probe. Candidates for president will be announcing and jockeying for position in the primaries that will begin early in 2020. Will the Democrats choose moderation, or will they launch a Great Proletarian Socialist Cultural Revolution? Will a Republican run against President Trump, and will he or she have a chance? Will President Trump battle through all of the investigations and obstacles being thrown up by his enemies to fulfill his agenda?

Will the economy get worse or better? Will the culture get worse or better? What do you think will happen among Christians? Which pendulums will start swinging in the opposite direction?

You tell me in the comments.

I’ll go first:

President Trump will get tired of being president, fed up with all of the grief he is getting and frustrated by the constant investigations. (The Mueller probe will come up with only minor violations, but the Democratically-controlled House and the state of New York will launch new investigations into his business transactions that he will find troublesome.) If it was up to him, he might not run for a second term, but he knows that the minute he is no longer president, his enemies will put him in serious legal jeopardy. So, I predict that he will resign from the presidency, invoking the Gerald Ford precedent by having the new President Pence issuing him “a full and unconditional pardon for any crimes he might have committed.”

Now it’s your turn.

Illustration by mohamed_hassan via Pixabay, CC0, Creative Commons

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Get Ready for Our Predictions Contest!

December 26, 2018 By Gene Veith

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Merry second-day-of-Christmas, a.k.a. Boxing Day, a.k.a. Two Turtle Doves Day! The week between Christmas and New Years’ is a good time to look back on the year that has gone before and to look forward to whatever might be next.

We’ll do that on the Cranach blog, building up to one of the great contests of the blogosphere: Our readers’ annual predictions for the New Year and our virtual prize to whoever had the best prediction for the Old Year.

On New Year’s Eve, the last day of the year (next Monday, December 31), we will post a review of readers’ predictions for 2018. We will then proclaim the winner for best prognosticator, who will win no prize, just our acclaim and bragging rights for the year ahead.

The next day, on New Year’s Day, you will be able to post, as comments, your predictions for 2019. They can be about current events, political developments, sports phenomena, scientific discoveries, cultural changes, or you name it. The winning entries will be predictions that are specific, unlikely, and surprising. General truths (“the world will continue turning”) will not score as highly as detailed, out-of-the-blue prophecies (“the world will turn upside down”).

And, don’t worry, the Deuteronomy 18 rule will not be in effect. These predictions should be historical projections, with no claims to supernatural revelation.

So be thinking about what you think will happen. And tell your friends to join in.

We’ll let Scott Adams, the Dilbert cartoonist, have the first prediction: “Scientists will eventually stop flailing around with solar power and focus their efforts on harnessing the only truly unlimited source of energy on the planet: stupidity. I predict that in the future, scientists will learn how to convert stupidity into clean fuel.”

Illustration: Janus [the Roman god of transitions, with one face that looks to the past and one face that looks to the future], Vatican Museum, photo by Loudon dodd [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

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