“The Upcoming Demographic Tsunami”

Many have derided a recent article on The Federalist in which Hans Feine argues that men and women can never (and should never) be “just friends” for its regressive ideas about gender, but few have focused on its scare tactics about demographics. Here’s the relevant quote from the article:

The latest numbers on American birth rates are in, and they yield only one reasonable conclusion: All of us need to start having more babies or else the upcoming demographic tsunami will consume our nation, cripple our social programs, and leave us with a future so bleak that our only source of joy will be the moment we’re chosen to receive the sweet, fatal kiss of the Obamacare Death Panels, the Trumpcare Firing Squads, or the OprahCare Hemlock Squadrons.

Yes, the author writes in the overblown style of a satirist. No, the article does not appear to actually be a piece of satire, and the article Feine links to when referencing the “upcoming demographic tsunami” is written in complete earnest. To its credit, this article—by Bruce Thornton, on Real Clear Politics—does not warn of brown people outbreeding white people. Instead, the author of this piece warns that immigration from developing countries is not enough to offset now-global declines in fertility:

Immigration from the Third World will not provide a long-term solution, as fertility rates are declining there as well. The average fertility rate for Latin America was six children per woman in the 1960s; by 2005, it had dropped to 2.5. At that rate of decline, within a few decades, Latin American countries will likely have a fertility rate lower than that of the United States.

Much concern about demographic crisis takes on a racist edge, especially among conservatives. I have a friend who moved to the South with her three white children several years ago, and has had random strangers thank her for having three white children, because the Muslims are outbreeding us. Those on the alt-right speak of the “race suicide” white people are committing, via our low birth rates.

The U.S. doesn’t have the aging population issues facing places like Japan because of its high rates of immigration—and most immigrants to the U.S. are not white (however exactly we define that). Over 50% of the babies born in the U.S. today are not white. In a few decades, white people will make up less than 50% of the U.S. population. Concerns about demographic catastrophe are so constantly linked to race that attempts to divorce the conversation from fears about race suicide (as in Thornton’s Real Clear Politics article) leave me skeptical.

Consider that in the U.S., appeals for women to have more children are frequently coupled with concern about welfare moms having baby after baby while on the dole—in other words, concern about demographic decline is almost always raced (and classed), as (college educated) white women are urged to have more children while black women (and poor white women) who have large numbers of children are treated as delinquent or irresponsible.

Still, let’s give Thornton the benefit of the doubt. Global birth rates are declining. It turns out that when people have the means to have fewer children, they have fewer children—especially when those children are more likely to survive (lower child mortality), and no longer contribute economically to the family (declines in child labor). But I suppose my question is this—why not prepare for a graceful transition to lower populations?

Have a look at this graph of global population:

As this graph makes clear, our high global population today is an aberration. What exactly would be the problem with seeing the global population decline (through lower birth rates) to a lower level, and perhaps stabilize there? Granted, there are problems that can occur when there is a smaller working population and a larger population of elderly to be cared for and sustained. But for a long time we’ve been running on a ponzi scheme, and that’s not sustainable.

Yes, current trends suggest that we will begin to see a decline in global populations at some point in the future, and that this decline is occurring first in developed nations. But is scaring or bribing people into having more children really the solution? What about accepting that global populations will ultimately decline and finding ways to mitigate any problems that may result? Population decline might mean fewer workers, but mechanization already means we need fewer workers to produce the same output. What we need is less fear mongering and more informed strategizing.

As for those for whom this really is about race, about brown people outbreeding white people, get over yourself. If you’re so narrow-minded that you can’t see yourself in all of humanity, if your tribe is so narrow that it only encompasses those who look like you, you’re the one who is the problem.

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