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The Election at 8 AM ET on Wednesday, 11-4-20

The Election at 8 AM ET on Wednesday, 11-4-20 November 4, 2020

As of 8 AM and the statistics at Politico, if we give Biden Wisconsin (very slight lead) and Trump Georgia, NC, and Alaska, it stands at Biden 248, Trump 247. Trump is ahead in PA, so if we give him that, he goes to 267. If Biden then gets Michigan (though Trump is very slightly ahead now, with a 0.5 lead, at 91% reporting, which was up 0.1 from the report at 90%), he is at 264. Nevada with its 6 votes would then determine the election.

Right now Nevada is Biden 49.2 and Trump 48.6 with 67% in. Only about 8000 votes separate them.

If Trump wins Michigan but not Pennsylvania, then he is at 263 and Biden would be 268. Then Biden would win if he got Nevada, but not Trump, who would be at 269. But it very well might be that Trump will get one more in Maine which sometimes (like Nebraska) splits its two electoral votes. That’s where the remaining electoral vote is, because there are 538 total. Maine (like most states) is a GOP stronghold in its areas other than the coast / more urban areas.

So, bottom line, Trump winning Pennsylvania + Nevada is his best bet. If either candidate wins PA and MI, they win. Trump may also still pull out a Wisconsin victory (it hasn’t been called), because he is only 0.7 behind, with 5% of the votes left to count.
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It’s the closest election since 2000, and like JFK in 1960 as well. The Dems won the latter by cheating in Illinois, as is pretty well accepted by historians, I think. The GOP won in 2000, as determined by the Supreme Court after examining the crazy-close Florida vote, so of course that’s not good enough for the Dems (not enough authority, I guess) and they still yelled “rigged” for four years . . .
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Meanwhile, the polls were wildly wrong in just about every battleground state except for Arizona. What else is new? The pollsters who got 2016 right (like Trafalgar) have explained why this is, but few listened. Nate Silver gave Trump 10% odds of winning.
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I also provided live updates last night at 10 PM, 12 midnight, and 1:30 AM ET:
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10 PM:

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We don’t know much yet, but we know that Trump is 2.4% ahead in Florida, with 93% of precincts reporting, and the always heavily Republican panhandle probably not in yet. This is good news, because he barely won the state last time, and because of the implication that he has held senior citizen voters.

He also is 14 points higher in Miami-Dade County: presumably because of the Cuban vote. I think this bodes well for other close / battleground states. So far, CBSN, that I am watching (because I don’t have cable TV) isn’t calling many states: only the predictable ones. I think I have all the states right in my predictions so far: that have been called.

Trump is 0.8 points ahead in N. Carolina with 86% in.
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Trump is 3.3 points ahead in Wisconsin with 52% in.What few indications we have so far favor Trump.

In the Senate, Graham is over 12 points ahead in S. Carolina, and projected to win. His opponent set an all-time record in spending against him, and it didn’t matter.
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Sen. Tillis is 1.1 ahead in N. Carolina, with 84% in. These two results, if they hold, suggest that the Republicans will keep control of the Senate.
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Sen. Ernst in Iowa was trending late, as was John James in Michigan.

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12 Midnight:

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Trump has won N. Carolina 50.1 to 48.7.

5.1 ahead in Wisconsin with 82% in. Great news!

Ahead by 5.7 in Iowa with 77% counted.
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Won Ohio by 8.2 points with 96% in. Way better than the skewed polls predicted . . . We just drove through there twice. Trump signs were everywhere.
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Ahead by 5.4 in Texas with 77%.
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Arizona is the main (and almost only) bad news so far. Reince Priebus thinks it was called too soon by Fox.
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Senate:
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Perdue way ahead in Georgia, Ernst 4.6 ahead in Iowa with 77%. Collins 10 points ahead in Maine, with 61%. Tillis won N. Carolina. That’s already 49 GOP, if the three above hold.
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At least 2 GOP pickups in the House. No Dem pickups.
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These are all fabulous trends (minus Arizona) and it makes it look good for Pennsylvania and Michigan, which would put Trump over the top, I believe.
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And what does this show about the polls? Almost all of them had Biden ahead by 5-8 points in battleground states. Almost all dead wrong.

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I have only one state wrong so far (if Arizona holds for Biden).

1:30 AM:

Ahead in Georgia by 5.7 with 92% counted.
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Florida was won by 3.5 points.
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Ahead by 9.2 in Michigan, but only 60% in, and no doubt much of Dem-dominated urban area vote to go.
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3.9 ahead in Wisconsin with 93% in.
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Ahead by 14.4% in Pennsylvania with 66% in. That’s certainly a good place to be so far.
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Ahead in Iowa by 8 points (99% in).
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Behind by 9 in Minnesota with 87%. I likely got Minnesota and Arizona wrong.
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Looking at my electoral predictions, if I give Biden Arizona, Minnesota, and Michigan (which I would then get wrong), it’s Biden 254 and Trump 284. This has Trump winning Wisconsin (where he’s looking real good). But we see that if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he goes to 264 and Biden gets to 274 and wins.
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On the other hand, if we give Biden Arizona, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, it’s Biden 258 and Trump 280, with Trump winning if he takes Michigan. But if he loses Michigan, he goes to 264 and Biden wins with 274.
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Therefore, it looks like it literally comes down to either Michigan or Pennsylvania. Trump can win if he takes either state, + Wisconsin. I would say Pennsylvania is more likely and that Biden forfeited the state when he talked about phasing out oil in the second TV debate with Trump. Thanks, Joe! If you lose by losing that state, I think this reason will be talked about forever. It’s the equivalent of Hillary’s “deplorable” comment.
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Sen. Ernst won in Iowa, Collins looks pretty good in Maine.
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GOP picked up one governorship in Montana, giving them 27-23 if everything holds.
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George Stephanopolous has conceded that it is looking like a “replay” of 2016. There you have it!
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Things are looking very good, folks, and I think it is much more than a 50% chance that Trump will win, but it won’t be decided tonight and I’m goin’ to bed!
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Wednesday, Nov. 4th, 11:30 AM ET:
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Biden is now pulling ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin (ahead by 0.7 and 0.6), and they are saying that the remaining vote in WI, MI, and PA is largely urban.
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Assuming Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump’s only hope (as I have noted as one scenario) is to win Pennsylvania + Nevada. He is currently 0.6 behind in Nevada, with 67% reported.
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All we can do at this point (besides pray) is hope that the good people of Pennsylvania (where my wife’s father came from) will understand (particularly) that Biden will ruin the oil industry in their state if he has his way.
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If they don’t vote Trump (along with Nevada), then our solace would be that it looks like the GOP will keep control of the Senate, meaning that a Biden squeak-through victory can scarcely be considered a mandate.
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In Michigan, Republican John James is ahead in the Senate race by 0.4%, with 96% counted.
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The Senate would be the bulwark against the judicial radicalism of packing the Supreme Court and ramming through other far left judges, as well as preventing radical / socialist Biden legislation like the abominable, ridiculous Green New Deal, and the elimination of the filibuster, electoral college, adding two new (liberal states), etc. (all of which the Dems have seriously threatened to do in their temper tantrum after Justice Barrett was appointed and confirmed). It’s the genius of checks and balances.
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Then once the American people see what a radical socialist Biharrisen administration (run behind the scenes by Sanders and AOC) does, they will quite possibly come to their senses and give the GOP control of the House in 2022, just as happened in 1994 after Bill Clinton, and in 2010 after Obama’s election:
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The 2010 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama’s first term. Republicans ended unified Democratic control of Congress and the presidency by winning a majority in the House of Representatives.
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Republicans gained seven seats in the Senate (including a special election held in January 2010) but failed to gain a majority in the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Republicans won a net gain of 63 seats, the largest shift in seats since the 1948 elections. In state elections, Republicans won a net gain of six gubernatorial seats and flipped control of twenty state legislative chambers, . . .
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That’s America waking up after going too far left and seeing the inevitable harmful results of that. Unfortunately, they also re-elected both men (fickle!), but what can you do?
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Photo credit: chayka1270 (9-29-17) [PixabayPixabay License]
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