This portrait of Hillary Clinton was adapted from a photo in the public domain from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s Flickr photostream: face. Image by “DonkeyHotey” (7-19-15) [Flickr / CC BY 2.0 license]
Whether one loves him, loathes him, reluctantly tolerates him, lionizes him, or thinks he is the reincarnation of Vlad the Impaler or Attila the Hun (I do none of those; I think he is a candidate who can win and will do some good, needed things, and a very flawed man with some good and useful qualities in terms of being President), Donald Trump is going to be our next President (I’d bet very good money on it), and the following factors are the reason why:
2) He’ll get the libertarian, and moderate voters by the droves. And it is the year of the political outsider. Trump capitalizes on that vs. almost the ultimate Insider and Establishment politician: Hillary Clinton.
3) He’ll get anyone who is suffering economically and figures out that incompetent, clueless Democrat / Obama economic policies have mostly caused (and unnecessarily prolonged) the bad economy. Obamacare is also a disaster and a majority rejects it.
4) Almost always after eight years of one party, it flips to the other party. Given the facts that Hillary Clinton is singularly uninspiring, boring, and unlikable, and her massive history of corruption, GOP chances are all the better.
5) We still have to see the aftermath of what a (probably more likely than not) FBI recommendation for indictment on several felony counts will do to Hillary and the Democrats. Even if the Democrat-controlled and biased Justice Department does not indict (which is the likelihood), the FBI recommendation for same (if it occurs) will be tremendously damaging to Hillary’s credibility and trustworthiness, and many leaks will come out that will be devastating.
6) Sanders is dividing the Democrats in a major way, whereas now the GOP (though many portions of it are smarting and disillusioned and cynical) has months to unify and pull together, with the departure of Cruz and Kasich.
7) 2016 resembles 1980 in many ways. Ronald Reagan was down in the polls 15-25 points to Jimmy Carter at this time of the year. Trump is already pulling even in some polls with Hillary and in one even beat her by two points.
8) Trump has not yet begun to fight. And he is clearly willing to vigorously fight and oppose the usual Democrat slanderous nonsense and talking-points during elections (all Republicans are racist, chauvinist, anti-poor, homophobes, etc.) in a way that no GOP candidate in recent memory has been willing to fight.
9) New Media is hugely more influential than it has been in past elections. This means that people’s minds are not dominated by the overwhelmingly liberal secular major media. And Trump is probably the most media-savvy candidate in either party, ever.
10) Economy, illegal immigration, terrorism. All three greatly favor Trump over Hillary Clinton. Another terrorist attack in the US would add two points to Trump’s winning percentage (or at worst, cause him to win rather than lose). Americans also badly want to defeat ISIS, and they know which party and candidate is far more likely to successfully do so.
11) Trump has the capacity to take “rust belt” states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio, and also possibly several northeastern states usually won by the Democrats. This will be all the more possible if he makes a good VP pick. Kasich would bring Ohio, Carson possibly Michigan, etc.
12) The “Never Trump” and “I’ll sit on my hands on election day” fools will be more than offset by the multiple thousands of new voters being brought into the GOP by Trump: some of whom haven’t voted before. Disenchanted Bernie-ites could be a big factor, too.
13) GOP turnout is up 60-70%; Democrat turnout is down 20-30%. Turnout is one of the most important factors in elections. It certainly was key in 2012 for Obama.
14) Slowly but surely, more and more African-Americans are figuring out that the Democrat Party shouldn’t automatically get their vote, especially in light of the fact that under the first black President, their economic status has decreased in every major category (whereas it greatly rose under Reagan), while white Americans’ status was flat, and Hispanic-Americans’ incomes rose.
15) Donald Trump is having problems with the female vote, but so is Hillary Clinton. Lots of women do not like her at all. Thus, it may be a wash with the women’s vote. It also cancels out whatever advantage the “woman card” might have given her. In other words, her being a woman will be far less advantage to her (if at all) than Obama’s being (half) black was to him.
See my previous posts about the 2016 election season:
Trump & Reagan: Shocking Similarities [1-15-16]
In (Partial) Defense of Donald Trump [3-10-16]
Roarin’ Lyin’ Ted [5-4-16]
And my report of how strikingly accurate these predictions were:
How Close I Came in My Electoral College Predictions (92 / 93%) [Facebook, 11-11-16]
Meta Description: Contrary to a widespread perception that it is Hillary Clinton’s election to lose, Trump has at least 15 important advantages.
Meta Keywords: 2016 presidential campaign, American politics, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, American presidential election