2015-05-24T14:15:27-07:00

We played to a packed house last night—about 550 people, including some friends who made the long drive up from Seattle. I don’t know what the special sauce was that made it happen, but Western Washington University had lots of students interested in the debate question, “Does God Exist?” They seemed a lot more engaged than that they were there just for extra credit.

I gave more information about the debate here. I expect to have access to the video in a few days and will make that available when I do.

The debate

The debate went as I suspected, with our Christian opponents avoiding the typical arguments that I hear from the conservative Protestant apologists—the Moral Argument, Design Argument, Transcendental Argument, Ontological Argument, Argument for the Truth of the New Testament, Fine Tuning Argument, Argument from Prophecy, Cosmological Argument, Who Would Die for a Lie? and so on.

I’ll let the debate video speak for itself, but let me give a quick summary of the Christian side. This presumably is a Catholic vs. Evangelical thing, but our opponents were pretty easy to agree with. To give you a flavor of what we were up against, here are some of their points:

  • Proofs for God don’t work
  • “God” has many definitions, and the God who scolded Saul for not killing enough Amalekites is not my god.
  • God is that whisper of something important in life; God is behind the wonder you see in a Hubble telescope image.
  • God is a mystery. Don’t think you have him figured out.

You can imagine how an atheist would object to some of this, but at least the Christian position wasn’t strident. The Catholic church meddles ineptly in some social issues (abortion, contraception, and same-sex marriage, for example) but that is mercifully a subset of the problems caused by some fundamentalist Protestants.

My debate approach is always to give some challenging arguments for atheism, preferably arguments that they are unlikely to have heard before. I’ve explored a couple of dozen in this blog, and the ones I picked for this debate were:

  1. Historians reject the Bible story
  2. Mormonism beats Christianity
  3. Because there’s a map of world religions
  4. God has no impact on reality

The results!

The debate used Oxford voting, which means that votes were taken before and after. The audience could decide between Yes God exists, No God doesn’t exist, and Undecided. The audience began with 18% undecided and the rest 3:1 in favor of God. Afterwards, some of the Undecideds had migrated. The official result was a 2% increase for the Affirmative (God exists) side and 3% for the Negative side. Go team!

If one believes that there is an omnipotent deity,
one can therefore believe absolutely anything else,
for everything else is thereby made possible.
— Descartes by A.C. Grayling

2015-05-13T12:25:12-07:00

A new Pew Research study, “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050,” makes interesting predictions about how religion will change.

Part 1 of this post discussed some of the key conclusions:

  • Christianity will be largely African by 2050. By that time, Africa will have more than twice as many Christians as North America, the second-most-Christian continent.
  • Christianity’s days as the world’s most popular religion are numbered. By 2050, Islam will have almost caught up.
  • While “Unaffiliated,” the category that contains atheists, will drop slightly worldwide during this period because of the greater baby-making capability of Christians and Muslims, the story in the U.S. will be quite different. By 2050, Christianity will drop (78% of the population to 66%) and Unaffiliated will be the big winner, with an increase from 16% to 26%.

(I’ve attached this post to the end of Part 1, so this will be redundant if you’ve already read that.)

Christianity Islam changesCould upcoming changes in America predict how the whole world will go?

Notice where these worldwide demographic changes are coming from: more babies. Islam will soon surpass Christianity not because Islam explains reality better or because Allah is the one true god, but for no more profound reason than that Muslims are making more babies. (Which is also largely how Christianity became #1.)

The fertility rate is now 3.1 children per woman for Muslims and 2.7 for Christians. One option for Christians nervous about these changes is to have more babies, which is what the Quiverfull Movement is all about (critiqued here).

But this baby arms race won’t last much longer. Worldwide fertility was 5.0 in 1950, it’s 2.5 now, and it will reach replacement level of 2.1 (the fertility rate of a stable world population) by 2050 (source, p. 25).

Demographic changes in religion are now driven by fertility, but as that factor wanes, what will change? Religion will no longer win simply by cranking out a surplus of indoctrinated babies and will have to compete on an intellectual footing.

To see how this may play out, consider world population charts with a sharp upward bend beginning several centuries ago as clean water technology, sewers, vaccines, antibiotics, and modern medicine reduced infant mortality. Modernity slowly brought the birth rate down, but this happened unevenly through the world. The population in Europe and the United States is now shrinking, but it is still growing dramatically in other parts of the world, most notably in central Africa. (Religion thrives where social conditions are poor, which is one reason why Christianity and Islam are spreading in central Africa and Arab countries.)

The drop in fertility rates means that the developing world will follow the West. Might the same secularization predicted for the United States happen there as well? The developing world has adopted Western technologies, they are following Western drops in fertility, and perhaps the United States of 2050—where “no religion” will be a viable and growing option to Christianity—will also be their future.

Whether atheism (or simply None of the Above) will continue to make inroads in Christianity as it’s projected to do in America for the next few decades is unclear. What seems almost certain, though, is that the time of fertility-driven growth will be over.

(Instead of Christianity becoming merely irrelevant, I propose a soft landing for it here.)

Limitations to predicting the future

Let me pause and note that the Pew Research study is careful to list caveats. The conclusions may be wrong if they’re based on flawed assumptions. For example, Pew doesn’t speculate on what social conditions might drive atheism, and Christianity’s future in China is hard to predict.

Father Longenecker (the “Atheism is Dying Out” author) adds his own speculations of events that would change the picture. Some make sense—a global war, natural disaster, or Christian revival in the West. And some are ridiculous—God uses magic to convert Muslims to Christianity or makes birth control pills stop working.

Let me add a few on the atheist side of the ledger. Suppose the Catholic Church figured out that preventing a conception isn’t the same thing as killing anything and lightened up on their antagonism against contraception. Or even allowed abortion. Christian denominations have been fine with abortion in decades past. If the rapid rise of the anti-abortion movement in the United States is possible, the reverse is conceivable as well.

Suppose Islam gets its Enlightenment. Christians can (and sometimes do) find support for regressive policies in the Bible that are out of touch with modern society. If Christians can dismiss nutty stuff in their holy book, Muslims could, too.

Suppose secularism catches on. Maybe there’s a snowball effect waiting to happen, and once enough Unaffiliateds or atheists go public with their unbelief, others will follow their lead—first the doubters who attend church because they feel they must and then other believers who unexpectedly have a new option to consider.

What do we actually want to drive the world’s beliefs?

What’s glaringly missing from Longenecker’s analysis is “Christianity will win out because it’s, y’know, true.” He could argue that true things have staying power and Christianity simply explains the world better.

Nope—he throws in the towel on the intellectual debate and doesn’t even acknowledging it. He’s simply rooting that Christians have more babies. (I’m beginning the see the value in conservative Christians’ recent redefinition of marriage to be all about making babies.)

Longenecker is like a General Mills executive fretting that Cheerios will lose its popularity in the breakfast cereal aisle. His claims that Catholicism explains life’s big questions are as well grounded as that Cheerios does. Without an intellectual grounding, Catholicism falls in with Cheerios as lifestyle features.

Once this baby-driven phase of religious expansion ends in the next few decades so that the effects of intellectual migration are clearer, it will be interesting to see who wins. The early indication doesn’t support religion.

As soon as it is held that any belief, no matter what,
is important for some other reason than that it is true,
a whole host of evils is ready to spring up.
— Bertrand Russell

Image credit: gill_penney, flickr, CC

2015-05-13T11:53:04-07:00

 Christianity Islam changesThe Pew Research Center recently published a thorough and intriguing new study, “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.”

Dwight Longenecker, a Catholic blogger here at Patheos, gloated about the conclusions in “The Facts: Atheism is Dying Out.”

Atheist “intellectuals” speak disparagingly about religion and predict that mankind is on the cusp of a new age in which religion will simply disappear as science, technology and reason are in the ascendant.

The facts indicate exactly the opposite. It is religion which continues to grow around the world while the statistics indicate that agnosticism and atheism are dying out.

In journalism, that’s called “burying the lede.” No, that’s not really the story. Let’s explore in more detail how religion will change by 2050.

Christianity has been the 800-pound gorilla on the world stage, but Christianity is losing its edge. In 35 years, Christianity will be only negligibly larger than Islam, with 31.4% of world population vs. 29.7% for Islam. Islam is projected to be the number one religion by 2070.

Changes in Christianity

Christianity will increasingly become an African religion. Africa is already the largest Christian continent, with slightly more Christians than North America. But by 2050, North America will have less than half of Africa’s Christian population (1.12 billion vs. 516 million).

North and South America will increase their Christian populations slightly—about the same as population growth for South America and substantially less than population growth for North America.

Christians in Europe will drop from 75% to 60%.

This global movement of Christianity can be seen visually on a map showing the changes in Christianity’s center of gravity over time. In 33 CE, the center of gravity began in Palestine. Over the centuries, it moved through Asia Minor and Greece, then gradually westward as Christianity spread through Western Europe. By 1700, it was in northeast Italy, by 1800 in northwest Italy, and by 1900 (with the rise in the Christian population of the Americas) in Spain. By 1970, it had moved dramatically south and was in northwest Africa. Today, it’s roughly centered on Timbuktu, Mali, and it’s expected to continue moving southeast into Africa.

The ancient city of Timbuktu is often used to suggest an impossibly remote place. Western Christians may find this metaphor relevant as world Christianity becomes increasingly foreign.

Changes in Islam

The Muslim fraction of Europe will almost double by 2050 to 8.7%. Islam in North America will continue to be tiny, with 2% of the population.

In Africa, however, Islam will more than double to 960 million. The big winner will be Asia, with 1.74 billion Muslims in 2050. The top four Muslim states will be India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria.

Changes in Unaffiliated

The number of people unaffiliated with any religion (which includes atheists) will increase, but as a percentage of the global population, this group will decrease, from 16% to 13%.  This is the statistic that Longenecker was gleeful about.

But there’s more to the story. For most religious groups, the difference between those switching in (adopting the religion) roughly matches those switching out. Christianity, however, is the big loser here, with a net loss of 66 million by 2050. The Unaffiliated will see a net increase of about the same amount. Christianity may not be that sticky a meme after all.

Changes in the United States

Consider projected changes in Christianity vs. Unaffiliated in the United States.

Graphic copyright 2015, Pew Research Center. Permission to reprint graphic provided by Pew Research Center.

Unlike changes in worldwide statistics, Christianity in the U.S. is the big loser (78% to 66%) and Unaffiliated the big winner (16% to 26%). That is, the Unaffiliated category appears to be winning the only race that one can be proud of winning, the intellectual debate in the marketplace of ideas.

While Christianity can win a demographic race as long as Christians make more babies, movement by intellectual migration does not favor Christianity.

Could upcoming changes in America predict how the whole world will go?

Notice where these worldwide demographic changes are coming from: more babies. Islam will soon surpass Christianity not because Islam explains reality better or because Allah is the one true god, but for no more profound reason than that Muslims are making more babies. (Which is also largely how Christianity became #1.)

The fertility rate is now 3.1 children per woman for Muslims and 2.7 for Christians. One option for Christians nervous about these changes is to have more babies, which is what the Quiverfull Movement is all about (critiqued here).

But this baby arms race won’t last much longer. Worldwide fertility was 5.0 in 1950, it’s 2.5 now, and it will reach replacement level of 2.1 (the fertility rate of a stable world population) by 2050 (source, p. 25).

Demographic changes in religion are now driven by fertility, but as that factor wanes, what will change? Religion will no longer win simply by cranking out a surplus of indoctrinated babies and will have to compete on an intellectual footing.

To see how this may play out, consider world population charts with a sharp upward bend beginning several centuries ago as clean water technology, sewers, vaccines, antibiotics, and modern medicine reduced infant mortality. Modernity slowly brought the birth rate down, but this happened unevenly through the world. The population in Europe and the United States is now shrinking, but it is still growing dramatically in other parts of the world, most notably in central Africa. (Religion thrives where social conditions are poor, which is one reason why Christianity and Islam are spreading in central Africa and Arab countries.)

The drop in fertility rates means that the developing world will follow the West. Might the same secularization predicted for the United States happen there as well? The developing world has adopted Western technologies, they are following Western drops in fertility, and perhaps the United States of 2050—where “no religion” will be a viable and growing option to Christianity—will also be their future.

Whether atheism (or simply None of the Above) will continue to make inroads in Christianity as it’s projected to do in America for the next few decades is unclear. What seems almost certain, though, is that the time of fertility-driven growth will be over.

(Instead of Christianity becoming merely irrelevant, I propose a soft landing for it here.)

Limitations to predicting the future

Let me pause and note that the Pew Research study is careful to list caveats. The conclusions may be wrong if they’re based on flawed assumptions. For example, Pew doesn’t speculate on what social conditions might drive atheism, and Christianity’s future in China is hard to predict.

Father Longenecker (the “Atheism is Dying Out” author) adds his own speculations of events that would change the picture. Some make sense—a global war, natural disaster, or Christian revival in the West. And some are ridiculous—God uses magic to convert Muslims to Christianity or makes birth control pills stop working.

Let me add a few on the atheist side of the ledger. Suppose the Catholic Church figured out that preventing a conception isn’t the same thing as killing anything and lightened up on their antagonism against contraception. Or even allowed abortion. Christian denominations have been fine with abortion in decades past. If the rapid rise of the anti-abortion movement in the United States is possible, the reverse is conceivable as well.

Suppose Islam gets its Enlightenment. Christians can (and sometimes do) find support for regressive policies in the Bible that are out of touch with modern society. If Christians can dismiss nutty stuff in their holy book, Muslims could, too.

Suppose secularism catches on. Maybe there’s a snowball effect waiting to happen, and once enough Unaffiliateds or atheists go public with their unbelief, others will follow their lead—first the doubters who attend church because they feel they must and then other believers who unexpectedly have a new option to consider.

What do we actually want to drive the world’s beliefs?

What’s glaringly missing from Longenecker’s analysis is “Christianity will win out because it’s, y’know, true.” He could argue that true things have staying power and Christianity simply explains the world better.

Nope—he throws in the towel on the intellectual debate and doesn’t even acknowledging it. He’s simply rooting that Christians have more babies. (I’m beginning the see the value in conservative Christians’ recent redefinition of marriage to be all about making babies.)

Longenecker is like a General Mills executive fretting that Cheerios will lose its popularity in the breakfast cereal aisle. His claims that Catholicism explains life’s big questions are as well grounded as that Cheerios does. Without an intellectual grounding, Catholicism falls in with Cheerios as lifestyle features.

Once this baby-driven phase of religious expansion ends in the next few decades so that the effects of intellectual migration are clearer, it will be interesting to see who wins. The early indication doesn’t support religion.

“I don’t understand how you don’t believe in God.”
Well, you know how you don’t believe in Zeus?
Like that.
— Ricky Gervais

Image credit: Jialiang Gao, flickr, CC

2015-11-16T21:54:57-08:00

Stalin genocide atheists anti-theistsYou must’ve heard the popular Christian argument that the atrocities committed by atheists like Stalin during the twentieth century eclipse Christian overexuberance throughout history. That includes the Crusades, the Inquisition, witch burning, and pogroms. A recent blog post takes this idea and projects it forward: “Hoping Atheists (Or at Least Anti-Theists) Do Not Kill Us This Time” by fellow Patheos blogger John Mark Reynolds.

But Dr. Reynolds isn’t tiptoeing to avoid triggering the atheist avalanche. No, he’s publicly calling atheists to account.

In part 1, we saw that the problem is apparently only with “anti-theist” atheists, those who “actively dislike and work against religion.” That includes me, so I’m part of the problem. We also explored his argument connecting genocide with these atheists. (Spoiler: I wasn’t convinced.) Let’s continue.

Case study: not-so-Christian Western Europe

Reynolds acknowledges that Western Europe is socially healthy despite being more atheistic than America, but he handwaves that that’s just because it still benefits from the imprint of Christianity.

I’ve got news for you: Christianity already had the chance to rule Europe, and we call that period the Dark Ages. (I’m imagining a filthy, emaciated peasant in France around 1200 wearing a ragged t-shirt. On the front it says, “When Christianity was in charge, all I got was this lousy t-shirt” and on the back, “… and the plague, smallpox, famine, Pardoners, and a life of indentured servitude as a serf.”)

Western Europe is largely atheistic, but it wasn’t always that way. The hold of Christianity was much higher a century ago. As social conditions improved over the decades, secularism increased. Some scholars have suggested that as the causal relationship, with Christianity the symptom of a sick society.

Social metrics like homicide, STDs, unwanted pregnancies, and so on have been used to compare countries. Atheistic and gay-friendly Western Europe does well in this comparison, and the good old U. S. of A. looks embarrassingly bad.

Yeah, but look at all Christianity gave you!

Reynolds is pretty happy with Western society, but he’s deluded about Christianity’s contribution. He imagines that Western society has as its foundation “a borrowed Christian culture.”

Atheists have such a poor track record in his mind that he suggests that, to polish their image, “Western atheists of the anti-theist sort [should] take over a nation or an area and run it for a decade or two. They should create new social norms, new art, and new constitutions.” As if these all came from Christianity!?

Consider just our legal rights. Consider fundamental principles that did not come from the Bible: democracy, secular government, separation of powers, and a limited executive; freedoms of religion, speech, press, and assembly; protection from self-incrimination and double jeopardy; speedy and public trial, trial by jury, and the right to confront witnesses; no cruel and unusual punishment; and no slavery (more here and here). For creating a livable society, I’ll take the U.S. Constitution over the Ten Commandments, thank you. And I think that in a thoughtful moment, you would, too. Note also that the 100% secular U.S. Constitution protects you against religious excesses just like it does me.

A Christian dictatorship that followed biblical principles is easy to imagine. It would look similar to today’s Muslim theocracies where atheism and apostasy are punished by death.

And now let’s poison the well

Reynolds is judge, jury, and all but executioner.

Until anti-theism shows it can stop killing people, Christians are right to worry about “anti-theist” atheists dominating the levers of power.

None of this proves that if your local Internet atheist troll took over, people would lose civil rights, freedom of religion, their children, their right to religious education, and eventually their lives in “re-education camps”, but the track record is very bad and their present tone not promising.

Christians are not paranoid to worry and would be foolish not to do so. A rising tide of anti-theism (or even anti-clericalism) has oft been a prelude to death.

When this Chicken Little attitude gets an enthusiastic hearing in some quarters, who can wonder why atheists are the least electable? Americans are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who has never held public office than one who is an atheist. Reynolds is doing a fine job strengthening this prejudice.

But let’s review the holes that sink his argument. Dictatorships are the problem, and there is no call within the Western atheist community for an anti-theistic dictatorship. Indeed, there have been zero people killed in the name of atheism because atheism takes no stand on issues like morality.

The U.S. has had a secular government since the ratification of the Constitution in 1788. Preserving this is the goal of every atheist I know, and this is quite different from a Stalinist dictatorship. It’s the Christians who I see rocking the boat, not atheists eager for a dictatorship.

Western Europe is substantially less Christian and more healthy than the United States. Atheism or secularism haven’t led to bad conditions there, let alone genocide. In fact, the present religious friction in the United States is Christians asking for special privileges (such as the right to discriminate as they please) and demanding to impose their beliefs on the rest of the country by law (same-sex marriage or abortion, for example). Christian excesses are the driving force behind the anti-theism.

Reynolds concludes:

The twentieth and twenty-first century victims of state atheism cannot read “angry atheism” without a shudder and this is reasonable. Let’s start any dialog with this in mind.

So you expect me to come to the discussion with head hung in appropriate humility, burdened down with Stalin’s sins? Forget it. And if dialogue is your goal—it certainly is mine—poisoning the well like this isn’t helpful.

Dr. Reynolds replied in another post, and I responded here.

If religion were the key to morality
then mega-churches would look more like charities
and less like million-dollar businesses.
— seen on a t-shirt 

Image credit: Wikimedia

2016-08-19T14:38:25-07:00

Stalin is a popular marionette for many Christian apologists. “Don’t tell me about Christian atrocities during the Crusades or the Inquisition,” they’ll say. “The atheist regimes in the twentieth century of Stalin, Mao, and others killed far more people!”

Fellow Patheos blogger John Mark Reynolds from the Evangelical channel recently put forth a new angle on that: “Hoping Atheists (Or at Least Anti-Theists) Do Not Kill Us This Time.” Apparently, you’ve got to keep an eye on those out-of-control atheists to make sure they don’t kill us all.

Stalin genocide atheists anti-theistsThe connection between atheism and genocide

Reynolds makes clear that he’s not fearful of all atheists. It’s only the anti-theists, which he defines as atheists who “actively dislike and work against religion.” That’s me. If you’re in the same boat (or know someone who is), come along as we find out why “these are the atheists that have proven dangerous in power and are worrisome to civil society.”

Reynolds gives three reasons for connecting anti-theists with genocide.

1. “The atheists of Russia, China, North Korea, Cambodia, [and] Albania came to their atheism and then picked a social and economic system compatible with their general worldview.”

Nope. These were dictatorships, and religion was a problem. You can’t have a proper dictatorship with the church as an alternate authority. Solution: eliminate religion. Atheism was merely a tool.

The only nations that have been officially atheistic have been uniformly horrible.

And they’ve all been dictatorships. Let’s put the blame where it belongs. This mistake is like pointing to Stalin and Hitler and saying, “It’s the mustaches! Men with mustaches have killed millions!

2. “Atheism was used as a reason for persecution in all of these nations.”

Control was the reason for persecution in dictatorships. Atheism was just a tool, like a scalpel used to murder.

Reynolds next goes on a poorly thought out rant about morality.

  • There is no check against genocide in atheism. And there is no check against genocide in chemistry, either. Neither has a moral rulebook. Atheism is the simple lack of god belief, not a worldview, and it neither advocates nor rejects genocide. Christianity, by contrast, does have a moral rulebook, and it sucks. Next, Reynolds claims that Christianity has a “built-in check on genocide,” which is completely false. God luvs him some genocide and demanded it often in the Old Testament.
  • “Christians are told to love their enemies.” If you go into the Bible looking for this, you can indeed find it, but Reynolds imagines that this is an unambiguous, unadulterated message in the Bible. It’s not. Did you hear about the American pastor who demanded that we be consistent with the Bible and stone gays a few weeks ago? Not so loving.
  • “An anti-theist creates his own values.” And Christians don’t? There is nothing in the Bible about transgender people, euthanasia, or chemically induced abortions, and Christians must improvise in response to new situations just like the rest of us.
  • Not all atheists are selfish, though they aren’t acting decently because of atheism. Atheists are decent for the same reason you are—how you are programmed as a Homo sapiens and the influence of your environment and society.

3. “There is a nearly perfect track record of officially atheist states killing large numbers of innocent people to this day. When atheists gain power and can impose an anti-theism, they have always started killing people.

You’ve convinced me: dictatorships are a problem. But you have yet to show atheism as a cause of anything.

Reynolds imagines the powerless atheists saying that they would rule more sensibly than the Christians if given the chance, but “large mass movements dedicated to selfishness or to ideology ([Ayn] Rand or Communism) have [no] external authority to allow the common member of society to rebuke the leaders.” But you do? Christians imagine an objective morality that isn’t there.

A bad bishop can be rebuked based on professed Christian beliefs.

A bad bishop’s actions can also be supported by Christian beliefs. “Love your neighbor” and rules for slavery are both in the Bible.

A bad atheist cannot [be rebuked] since atheism has no creed or necessary beliefs beyond not believing in God, a life force, or a higher power.

Bingo! And your argument is now in a heap at your feet. Atheism is a lack of god belief; that’s it. No one has ever been killed in the name of atheism.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Christianity.

My analysis of Reynolds’ argument is concluded in part 2.

God used floods and plagues to kill people.
Why command the Israelites to do the dirty work?
That’s not a god, it’s a Godfather.
— commenter Greg G.

Image credit: Wikimedia

2015-03-27T13:05:42-07:00

Social conventions change. Think of examples where we look back on Western society past and shake our heads at how morally wrong they were. Slavery. Chopping off hands for stealing. Debtor’s prison. Workhouses. Slow public executions. Voting rights given to landowners only.

But does it end there?

A group of freethinking friends saw the recent James Randi biography “Honest Liar,” and we were chatting afterwards. One person raised this question about how society changes. But it’s not like we’ve got it all figured out. Though we’d like to think otherwise, our descendants will look back on our society and find their own examples.

So here’s the question (and I’d like audience participation): What social attitude changes will happen this century such that future Americans will look back on us with bemusement or horror?

Prediction 1: sex!

Let me get you started with examples from our conversation. Case had raised the question, and he predicted the widespread acceptance of both polyamory (having multiple romantic or sexual partners at a time) and polygamy (marriage with more than two partners) and that today’s views will seem prudish and backwards.

Yes, he’s saying that the conservatives’ prediction is right: from mixed-race marriage comes same-sex marriage, and that opens the floodgates to even more redefinition. (Aside: they forget that this isn’t new since marriage has always been in flux.)

It’s interesting to imagine this evolution. In the past, we had one man and one woman, same race, the bride is treated like property and comes with a dowry, and with few restrictions on the bride. We’ve gotten past the racial restriction and are moving past the gender restriction, and Case imagines loosening up of the number restriction. But note how this isn’t a Sexual Revolution free-for-all: now the bride must be old enough, must consent, and must not be a close relative. Divorce is now allowed, marital rape is forbidden, and so on.

Prediction 2: climate change

I was surprised that the question resonated with others at the table. Apparently, we’d all thought about this very issue. Scot anticipated that both policy makers and ordinary voters will universally accept human-caused climate change. People will be shocked and outraged that we had the evidence for climate change but fiddled while Rome burned. He illustrated it by imagining them shocked that someone would drive a 3000-pound car for 15 minutes, spewing out carbon dioxide all the way, to deliver a pizza.

Prediction 3: animal rights

My proposal was that synthetic meat will be widely available, and they will look back on our society with shock that we raised animals solely to be killed, butchered, and eaten. Today, we are outraged at the idea of clubbing baby seals for fur and at bays red with blood from Japanese dolphin kills, and our future selves will have the same revulsion at our killing cows for cheeseburgers.

Given the environmental impact of livestock, they will also wonder why the financial argument wasn’t convincing even if the moral one wasn’t.

Your turn

Which practice or attitude, customary today, will our descendants look back on with surprise or shock? Maybe they will be outraged that we had capital punishment or that euthanasia was illegal. Maybe they will shake their heads thinking back on when abortion was legal. Maybe they will laugh at our prudishness about sex on television but be disgusted at our appetite for violence. Maybe they will marvel that we let every bonehead vote for no better reason than that they were a citizen, with complete disregard to understanding of the issues and mental capability.

It doesn’t have to be a dream of yours—you might hate it but see it as inevitable anyway.

What do you think?

I think hedonism is one of the most
morally defensible philosophies.
If the purpose of life is pleasure,
it becomes hard to justify suffering.
— commenter smrnda

Image credit: Marlon Cureg, flickr, CC

2015-03-14T17:04:21-07:00

Let’s conclude our ten principles for evaluating the Bible. This list is in response to a Christian version by Jim Wallace, “Ten Principles When Considering Alleged Bible Contradictions,” critiqued here. Part 1 of my list is introduced here.

biblical analysis criticism6. Missed opportunities count

God could’ve given us soap or told us that the earth is a sphere. Jesus could’ve eliminated all disease—and poverty, war, and famine while he was at it. But they didn’t.

What does that tell you? Apologists will say that the Bible isn’t a science textbook (though many will then take the Creation story literally). They’ll say that it simply wasn’t part of the plan for God to make life easy or even make the Bible message obvious so that there would be no need for the thousands of denominations of Christianity.

Even though the Bible doesn’t tell us anything that wasn’t already known to people of that time and place, that doesn’t prove that God doesn’t exist. But what can we learn from the fact that the Bible is ambiguous and contradictory, that life on earth sucks for many people, and that the “God” character has no more knowledge or wisdom than the primitive people who wrote his story? This world and all the problems in it do not look like they were created by an all-loving and omnipotent deity.

7. If it looks like a book written by a primitive people, it almost certainly is

The best explanation for the Bible is that primitive people of the time did write the story and that the Bible is just the blog of an early Iron Age desert tribe. We can’t ignore the many examples of mythology from other ancient cultures, and the Bible looks like just one more.

We need an enormous amount of evidence to conclude that Babylonian Enuma Elish or the Hindu Vedas are mythology, but the Bible, which looks so similar, is actually history.

8. Natural evidence provides poor support for a supernatural conclusion

Many Christians “just believe,” but to get there by an intellectual route takes much evidence. On one hand, we can suppose that an omniscient god who wanted to convince us that he existed would be able to reach the most skeptical atheist. For example, God could reveal himself to everyone on the same day so that we would have everyone else’s verification that our senses are reliable.

But how would you rule out very intelligent aliens? Imagine if you went back just 200 years in time with today’s modern technology—antibiotics, telephones, CGI movies and Photoshopped photos, airplanes, weapons, and so on. It would be easy to convince many people that you were a god.

Now imagine how we’d respond to someone from a technology 200 years more advanced than us. Now make it two million years. If they wanted to convince us that they were the creator of the universe, how would we know any different? (More.)

Consider from a more abstract level the problem of finding proof for the supernatural. Using natural evidence to prove the existence of the supernatural may be like Flatlanders using evidence in their 2D world to prove that there is a 3D world out there. (More.)

9. Don’t read in your own desires

Was God wrong to demand genocide or not? Did God demand human sacrifice or not? Did God approve of slavery and polygamy or not?

Christians are often quick to come to God’s rescue to find counter-verses to argue that God shares our modern sensibilities on these matters. (One wonders why God can’t make things clear himself, but never mind.) These apologists are certain that they and God are on the right side of these moral matters despite what a plain reading of the Bible indicates.

And while they’re at it, they’ll find support for their particular views on homosexuality, abortion, and other social issues—either pro or con, doesn’t matter.

The honest critic lets the Bible speak for itself. If it seems to contradict itself, that may be explained by the many books of the Bible coming from many authors from different cultures and with different ideas of God.

10. Don’t presuppose God

The Christian set of 10 principles ended with this one: “Remember who’s boss.” That is, don’t forget that God is in charge and that we aren’t empowered to judge him. Whether the problem is ambiguity or contradictions in the Bible or evil in the world, we can’t even understand the situation enough to convict him.

But of course this simply starts with the conclusion. We can’t start by assuming that God exists and the Bible is his word any more than we’d start a critique of Islam, Mormonism, or Scientology with an assumption that they were correct. We’re not trying to judge God but simply decide if the Bible is anything more than what it looks like, an ancient myth.

Bonus #11: Don’t abdicate your role as judge

There is no objective authority to lean on. As a Christian, you might rely on a pastor, televangelist, or biblical scholar. You can read the Bible, trying to resolve its various interpretations applied by its various partisans. And still the problem remains—you take their input, but the buck stops with you.

You ain’t much, but you’re all you’ve got.

It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is,
it doesn’t matter how smart you are.
If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
— Richard P. Feynman

Image credit: Martin Thomas, flickr, CC

2015-09-09T16:11:38-07:00

same-sex marriage bigotry gayThis is the concluding post looking at popular arguments against same-sex marriage. Conservative radio host Frank Turek provides most of them. (Part 1 here.)

17. Christians are obliged to reject same-sex marriage! Frank gives society the tough love it needs.

If we celebrate harmful behavior we are being unloving. Love requires we tell people the truth, even if it upsets them.

We’ve already established that homosexuality is no more inherently harmful than heterosexuality (see argument 15).

You can imagine that God creates homosexuals and then somehow is disgusted by his own creation, but it’s curious how God’s views seem to line up so conveniently well with your own—so conveniently that I wonder if you’re playing “God” like a sock puppet.

First show that your severe god and his supernatural world exists. Only then will worrying about his desires make sense. Until then, I have no respect for your fantasy.

18. Society will collapse! Frank imagines same-sex marriage in society and doesn’t like the orgy that he expects within the straight community.

Legally equating [straight and same-sex] relationships breaks the link between marriage and childbearing which leads to higher illegitimacy and a chain of negative effects that fall like dominoes—illegitimacy leads to poverty, crime, and higher welfare costs which lead to bigger government, higher taxes, and a slower economy.

So same-sex marriage tells society that it’s actually sex that produces babies, not marriage? That’s already obvious to anyone who’s been paying attention. But then Frank imagines that this insight will cause straight people to have more sex outside of marriage, and that will produce more illegitimate children. How does that follow?

Ignoring the incoherence of the orgy argument, it sounds like he’s confusing illegitimate children with unwanted children. Illegitimacy can simply be redefined. If illegitimacy causes problems, encourage society to define the problem away. As for unwanted children, I get it—that is indeed a problem. For that, I urge Frank to stop making abortion more difficult (more here).

19. There is no genetic basis for homosexual desire! Frank gives us the benefit of his years of research into the biology of homosexuality.

After many years of intense research, a genetic component to homosexual desires has not been discovered. Twin studies show that identical twins do not consistently have the same sexual orientation. In fact, genetics probably explains very little about homosexual desires.

That may be right, but so what? We could wrestle with why someone is homosexual (Wikipedia says, “Scientists hypothesize that a combination of genetic, hormonal, and social factors determine sexual orientation”) but that’s off topic. Frank wrongly implies from this incompletely answered question that no one is homosexual.

Though conversion therapy (conversion of someone from a homosexual into a heterosexual) still exists, it’s looked down upon today and is illegal in some states. If people call themselves ex-gay and are pleased with that self-image, that’s fine. Sexual identity is a spectrum, and a bisexual person might see themselves as gay one year and ex-gay the next. Just don’t conclude that homosexuality is bad, that it should be suppressed, or that no one is homosexual.

Exodus International was a Christian ministry devoted to conversion therapy. It operated for almost 40 years before disbanding in 2013. Its president admitted that their work had changed almost no one.

20. But same-sex marriage is unnatural. Just think about it … yuck!

[Marriages of this type are] alliances so unnatural that God and nature seem to forbid them.

Hold on. No, that’s my bad. This is actually from an 1878 Virginia Supreme Court decision, and the marriages that so bothered the judges in this case were mixed-race marriages.

But this is basically identical to what modern opponents to same-sex marriage say. Here is the view of Anglican archbishop of Nigeria Peter Akinola from 2003:

I cannot think of how a man in his right senses would be having sexual relations with another man. It is so unnatural, so unscriptural.

First off, homosexuality is natural. It has been documented in 500 species of animals, including all great apes (of which humans are a part).

Second, if it freaks you out to think about two guys doing it, then don’t think about it. There are straight couples that do the same thing, and quite possibly in larger numbers—does that bother you?

You think gay sex is yucky? What’s yucky is the Christian as imaginary voyeur, peeking through the window into someone’s bedroom to judge what they’re doing.

Third, let’s not put that much stock in whether something is supported by scripture or not. Slavery, polygamy, and genocide have clear support in scripture. We happily condemn those practices today, so the Bible obviously no longer binds us.

Fourth, the Bible says nothing about same-sex marriage. Even the widely cited verses arguing that homosexuality is wrong make a weak case.

Finally, consider IVF, abortions, surrogate mothers, and modern technology that saves the lives of premature infants. Add to that erectile dysfunction pills, birth control pills, morning-after pills, and testosterone pills and tell me that there aren’t plenty of unnatural elements of sex within marriage already. And the focus of marriage laws is to a large extent on unnatural things like property rights.

Final thoughts

In the 1996 Romer v. Evans case, the Supreme Court struck down a state law that prevented any local government from recognizing homosexuals as a protected class. It stated, “If the constitutional conception of ‘equal protection of the laws’ [from the Fourteenth Amendment] means anything, it must at the very least mean that a bare … desire to harm a politically unpopular group cannot constitute a legitimate governmental interest.” When we consider them, we find that the arguments raised by the anti-same-sex marriage crowd either have no legitimate governmental interest or are simply factually wrong.

To any Christians who may be having second thoughts on their opposition to same-sex marriage, let me suggest a graceful exit. Stop parroting conservative politicians and instead follow the lead of Jesus. We have no record of Jesus scolding homosexuals for what they did between the sheets, but we read much about his concern for the poor and sick. “Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.” Homosexuality isn’t a lifestyle choice, but hateful Christianity is.

Frank Turek is flogging this dead horse, despite the pendulum having swung solidly and irreversibly in the pro-same-sex marriage direction, because it benefits him. He’s found a group of people who will pay him to pat them on the head and assure them that their prejudice is not only reasonable but God given.

We can find a parallel in the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. In the lead-up to the games, Russian president Vladimir Putin caused waves with his anti-gay pronouncements. With Russia in the spotlight, why would he make his country look bad within the international community? But Putin’s intended audience wasn’t the international community; he was grandstanding to the folks back home who rewarded a tough-on-gays attitude.

In a similar way, I doubt Frank cares much what outsiders think. I doubt he expects to convert many liberal Christians to his way of thinking. He just wants to please his conservative Christian constituents. Frank is the anti-gay Pied Piper, leading nervous Christians who are delighted to follow someone who will assure them that the sky is indeed falling and eager to pay for the privilege of being in his club.

If Jesus wants to perform an impressive miracle, he could get these Christians to focus on the actual problems in the world. God knows there are hundreds more important than this one.

“Every human being [already] has the same right to marry someone of the opposite sex”? That’s seriously the empty and heartless sentiment you want to be remembered for, Frank?

History is listening.

How ironic that most of the same people squawking,
“You can’t redefine marriage”
have been trying to redefine “murder” since 1973.
— commenter Sven2547,
referring to the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision

Photo credit: Wikipedia

2015-01-02T11:50:27-08:00

The authors of the book Atheist Mind, Humanist Heart: Rewriting the Ten Commandments for the Twenty-first Century recently sponsored a competition for a new set of atheist Ten Commandments. Here are the winners:

  1. Be open minded and be willing to alter your beliefs with new evidence.
  2. Strive to understand what is most likely to be true, not to believe what you wish to be true.
  3. The scientific method is the most reliable way of understanding the natural world.
  4. Every person has the right to control over their body.
  5. God is not necessary to be a good person or to live a full and meaningful life.
  6. Be mindful of the consequences of all your actions and recognise that you must take responsibility for them.
  7. Treat others as you would want them to treat you and can reasonably expect them to want to be treated. Think about their perspective.
  8. We have the responsibility to consider others including future generations.
  9. There is no one right way to live.
  10. Leave the world a better place than you found it.

We could tweak the wording, swap out a few, or maybe add a few more (why stick with ten?). Overall, though, I think it’s a great list.

But not everyone was pleased. At Glenn Beck’s The Blaze, conservative commenters objected in various ways. I’ve waded through hundreds to get the major themes. I didn’t notice any Christian commenters applaud the general idea. Instead, they all dug in their heels in various ways.

As I go through these, I’ll respond only briefly. Feel free to add more in the comments.

Quibbles.Some complained that they aren’t all commands—numbers 3, 4, and 5, for instance. Some are similar and could be combined—6 and 8, for instance. One commenter asked, “What is the penalty for violating these ‘Ten Suggestions?’” And some of this is subjective—for example, what does it mean to leave the world a “better” place?

And that’s the problem when using the format of immutable laws from an absolute dictator as a structure for enlightened advice. Fair points, I’d say, but they (deliberately?) avoid the issue. As for the concern about subjectivity, yes, we may have different directions we’d like society to move in. Welcome to the real world.

Defiant or petulant. One commenter winsomely said, “I seem to like the original version, atheist can kiss my @ss!” Another: “They don’t seem to get that their way of life is so illogical even though they claim to be such superior intellects.”

If you’re frustrated but have no concrete complaint, I suppose this is what you’re left with. I get empty “You’re wrong!” comments of this sort regularly at this blog.

Atheists are hypocritical. Sure, you atheists will follow rule #1 and alter your beliefs … “unless it points to God.” You’ll follow #2 and reject that which has no evidence … “unless it’s what you think is true.” You’ll follow the scientific method … “only if it fits [your] agenda.” Summing up, “These sound like liberal commandments for others, not for themselves.”

Are atheists imperfect? Of course. But I see none of the hypocrisy that they imagine. I strive to follow these rules and would encourage those in my life to point out where I fall short.

Atheists are arrogant. “My primary argument with atheists is that they are so arrogant as to not consider that there may be a higher power than themselves.”

I’m happy to consider that. In years of searching, I’ve found very little, but I continue to seek out good arguments in favor of Christian claims.

Your list is incomplete. “Not a single word against killing, stealing, diddling somone else’s spouse, catting around while your spouse isn’t looking, being greedy or being excessively prideful. So basically, ‘Anything Goes!’”

You need commandments to be reminded not to kill someone? Anyway, #7 (“Treat others as you would want them to treat you and can reasonably expect them to want to be treated”) covers that. “Anything goes!” is neither the point of this list nor the philosophy of any atheist I know.

Where are the absolute consequences? “What happens if you break these atheist commandments? You go to not-hell? What’s the punishment? I see no reason to follow any of these if there is no God.”

“What is the incentive to be good when evil is more fun and profitable?”

Penn Jillette had a great response:

The question I get asked by religious people all the time is, without God, what’s to stop me from raping all I want? And my answer is: I do rape all I want. And the amount I want is zero. And I do murder all I want, and the amount I want is zero. The fact that these people think that if they didn’t have this person watching over them that they would go on killing, raping rampages is the most self-damning thing I can imagine.

I’ve yet to see any compelling argument for objective morality (that is, moral claims that are true whether anyone believes them or not). Lots of enthusiastic and confident claims, but no evidence.

Anyway, there are plenty of consequences right here. Society imposes legal or social sanctions for poor behavior. The Christian who thinks that he’d rampage at will hasn’t thought this through.

Atheists wouldn’t worry about God unless they knew he existed! About nativity displays on public property: “I would have no problem if I had neighbor who worshiped turnips, and put up a yearly display. I wouldn’t try to prohibit his freedom to do so. Why are atheists offended by religious displays? I suspect they, deep down, know and refuse to acknowledge the Divine Designer.”

So atheists are really all believers? I doubt it.

As for nativity displays, I don’t know why the War on Christmas® is that big a deal (except for Fox News ratings, I mean). I have no problem with a neighbor who puts up a yearly display for turnips or Jesus, just don’t do it on government property. Show respect for your Constitution. Why is this hard?

It’s all the atheists’ fault. “Back in the 60’s before prayer was kicked out of school and the teachers had a copy of the 10 Commandments on her board you never heard of any kids killing kids.”

Not really. When you look at social metrics, you find that belief is inversely related to social health. The godless Scandinavian countries embarrass the U.S. with statistics on lifespan, divorce, life satisfaction, murder, and so on.

10 atheist commandments? Must be a religion. “Funny how the supposed sect of the nonreligious has to make their ‘thoughts and beliefs’ in a form that parallels another religion.”

“If they’re trying to make themselves not a religion they’re a doing a terrible job at it.”

It’s quite a stretch to call anything within atheism a religion when atheism is a rejection of supernatural claims.

Other commenters looked down their noses at Humanist chaplains and atheist church services, but there is no inconsistency. Take chaplains and church, remove the supernatural, and what remains can be useful.

Double down on Christianity. “To believe in a non belief.. So sad for them to believe that when we die, there is nothing. I choose Heaven.. These people have lost all hope.”

“You Atheists are starving. Like petulant children who stomp their feet because they resent the thought of someone being ‘in control’ other than they, themselves.”

No evidence here, just Bible quotes, Christian theology, an opportunity for proselytizing, tales of how great heaven will be, and Pascal’s Wager. In short, just cuz.

There is more—atheism = communism, atheists love abortion, Stalin was an atheist—but you get the idea.

(I’ve written more about the Ten Commandments: about their irrelevance to modern society, how the ten that we’re familiar with aren’t the correct ten, and about an American Atheist monument put up in response to a Ten Commandments monument on (you guessed it) public property.)

Christianity has 42,000 denominations. They can’t even figure out their own Bible.

The intellectual and emotional energy it takes
to figure out how God fits into everything
is far greater than dealing with reality as it presents itself to us.
— Ryan Bell (“Year Without God” blog)

Image credit: Hartwig HKD, flickr, CC

2014-10-31T12:10:15-07:00

Elevatorgate. Charges of sexual harassment at secular/atheist conferences. Charges of sexual assault or misogyny or just cluelessness leveled at high-profile atheists. It’s gotten so extreme that the title of a recent BuzzFeed article didn’t seem too farfetched: “Will Misogyny Bring Down The Atheist Movement?”

I’m amazed at the byzantine turns this topic has taken and the hold it has on some atheist bloggers. It would take me weeks to read all that has been written, and let me make clear that, not having done that, I don’t pretend to be well informed about the issue. But let me summarize an event that happened in my part of the country close to 20 years ago that, while much more extreme, may have parallels to today’s anxiety.

This being Halloween, it seems appropriate to bring up the Wenatchee Witch Hunt, what has been called history’s most extensive child sex abuse investigation.

Details of the case

It began in 1992, when, after much questioning, the 7-year-old daughter of poor and uneducated parents accused a family acquaintance of molesting her. After repeated encouragement by the Wenatchee police lieutenant who was acting as foster parent to the girl and her sister, the girls eventually named over a hundred abusers and many child victims.

Local Pentecostal pastor Robert Robertson tried to talk sense to the investigators. For his troubles, he and his family were sucked in as suspects, and the story was rewoven to include his church as a center for orgies with the children. Others who also tried to rein in the crazy were also charged or fired. (What explains a defense of the accused but that that person is similarly guilty?)

Child witnesses, mostly from 9 to 13 years old, were often taken from their families and placed in foster care. Many said later that they were subjected to hours of frightening grilling and if they didn’t believe they had been sexually abused, they were told they were “in denial” or had suppressed the memory of the abuse. They were also told that siblings and other children had witnessed their abuse, or that that their parents had already confessed.

Interrogators called some children who denied abuse liars. Children were told that if they agreed to accusations they wouldn’t be separated from parents or siblings. Many of them later recanted. [The police lieutenant] neither recorded nor kept notes of his interrogations.

Recantations were ignored. “It’s well known that children are telling the truth when they say they’ve been abused,” [the] Wenatchee Child Protective Services [supervisor said.] “But (they) are usually lying when they deny it.”

Aftermath

In all, “43 adults were arrested and accused of 29,726 counts of sexually abusing 60 children…. Eighteen pleaded guilty, mostly on the basis of signed confessions. Ten were convicted at trial. Three were acquitted. Eighteen went to prison.” All confessions were later recanted, all convictions related to the sex ring have been overturned, a third of the children claimed to have been abused were at one point taken from their parents and put up for adoption, and the city of Wenatchee paid lawsuits claiming millions of dollars in damages.

It was a modern-day replay of the 1692 Salem witch trial in which several girls’ accusations resulted in 19 people being hanged and one more pressed to death.

No, just because there’s smoke doesn’t mean there’s fire, and someone encouraging restraint isn’t necessarily part of the problem. As an outsider to the stories behind the accusations of misogyny and rape, I make no claim that I understand who’s right or wrong. I simply offer this Wenatchee case as an example of how well-meaning thinking can go off the rails.

In this blog, I’ve commented on social issues such as homosexuality, same-sex marriage, and abortion rights. Christianity creates problems in these areas, and I think I have something to contribute to the conversation. Atheists are pretty much of one mind on these issues.

I might have something to contribute to the conversation on feminism and misogyny as well, but unfortunately this has become a contentious, us-vs.-them issue within the atheist community, and I avoid it. I wish it weren’t so.

Once your forefathers and foremothers realized that
[the scientific method] generated results,
in a few generations your species went

from burning witches and drinking mercury
to mapping the human genome and playing golf on the moon.
David McRaney

(This is an update of a post that originally appeared 7/2/12.)

Photo credit: Wikipedia


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