Abp. Viganò, the Pope, & the “Vicar of Christ” Nothingburger

April 6, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

With Catholic Theologian Dr. Robert Fastiggi and Apologist Karl Keating

On 3 April 2020, Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò: Pope Francis’ biggest critic among the bishops, issued a statement called “You Have Said So.” Here is the bulk of it (my bolding added):

On March 25, the 2020 Pontifical Yearbook was published with a real novelty. It may seem like a typographical trifle, in the part dedicated to the reigning pontiff, but this is not the case. Until last year, in fact, Francis’s titles were listed at the top of the page, beginning with “Vicar of Christ”, “Successor of the Prince of the Apostles” etc., and ending with his birth name and a very brief biography.

In the new edition, on the other hand, the secular name JORGE MARIO BERGOGLIO stands out in large letters, followed by the biography, the date of election and the beginning of his “ministry as universal Pastor of the Church.” Separated by a dash and the words, “Historical titles,” all the titles of the Roman Pontiff are then listed, as if they were no longer an integral part of the Munus Petrinum that legitimizes the authority which the Church recognizes in the Pope.

This change in the layout and content of an official text of the Catholic Church cannot be ignored, nor is it possible to attribute it to a gesture of humility on the part of Francis, which is not in keeping with his name being so prominently featured. Instead, it seems possible to see in it the admission — passed over in silence — of a sort of usurpation, whereby it is not the “Servus servorum Dei” who reigns, but the person of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who has officially disavowed being the Vicar of Christ, the Successor of the Prince of the Apostles and the Supreme Pontiff, as if they were annoying trappings of the past: only mere “historical titles.”

An almost defiant gesture — one might say — in which Francis transcends every title. Or worse: an act to officially alter the Papacy, by which he no longer recognizes himself as guardian, but becomes master of the Church, free to demolish it from within without having to answer to anyone. In short, a tyrant.

. . . [He] releases himself from his role as Vicar to proclaim himself, in a delirium of pride, absolute monarch even with respect to Christ.

Moreover, it’s reported that Cardinal Gerhard Müller, the Vatican’s former doctrinal chief, writing for the German weekly Die Tagepost, contended that the section marked “historical titles” included “Vicar of Christ” with other titles that “have nothing to do with primacy and have only grown historically but [have] no dogmatic meaning, such as ‘Sovereign of Vatican City State’. . . . It is a theological barbarism to devalue the Pope’s titles ‘Successor of Peter, Vicar of Christ and visible head of the whole Church’ as a mere historical ballast.”

Words fail me, I must confess (and that’s a rare thing). Blessedly, my friend, Dr. Robert Fastiggi has responded to these accusations, and has given me permission to post his thoughts (written to various people) on my blog:

I agree with him that it would have been better not to list the titles of the Pope as “historical titles.” I think, though, that he and others are reading too much into this than is warranted. These titles are historical, but this does not mean they are not still actual titles. As Catholics, we are obliged to seek to give a favorable interpretation to what our neighbor says or does (CCC, 2478). Archbishop Viganò, though, not only gives an unfavorable interpretation, but he goes so far as to compare Pope Francis to Judas. This is similar to his reaction to Pope Francis’s Dec. 12, 2019 homily in which he compared Francis to the serpent tempting Eve. This strikes me not only as hyperbole but as supreme disrespect to the Holy Father. I know some people regard Archbishop Viganò as a hero. I also was grateful for his demand for an explanation with respect to the influence of Theodore McCarrick. Unfortunately, Archbishop Viganò’s rhetoric in recent months has become hyperbolic. I noted this in a letter to Inside the Vatican, which has not yet been published but was posted by my friend, Dave Armstrong on Patheos. I really believe Archbishop Viganò needs prayers (as does Pope Francis).

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Thank you for sharing this story. I had not heard of this change before. It seems, though, that most of the significant papal titles are listed as “historical titles.” To call them historical does not mean that they are not valid today.

I noted this passage in the story:

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Usually, the presentation of the members of the Church’s hierarchy – College of Cardinals, bishops of the world and the Vatican’s dicasteries – starts with the Roman Pontiff, under the title “Vicar of Jesus Christ” (“Vicario di Gesù Cristo”). Then follow the additional titles of the Pope, all of which carry a “different or even no dogmatic significance” as does the first title, according to Horst. These are: Successor of the Prince of the Apostles, Supreme Pontiff of the Universal Church, Primate of Italy, Archbishop and Metropolitan of the Roman province, Sovereign of the State of the Vatican City, and Servant of the Servants of God.

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Actually, the title “Successor of the Prince of the Apostles” might be the most significant because Vatican I anathematized those who denied that the Roman Pontiff is the successor of Blessed Peter (Denz.-H, 3058). It also should be noted that Vatican II applies the title “Vicar of Christ” to bishops as well (LG, 27). The Roman Pontiff is the supreme Vicar of Christ on earth, but he’s not the only “Vicar of Christ” according to Vatican II.

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As you might recall, there was some controversy over the dropping of the papal title “Patriarch of the West” in 2006 in the Annuario Pontificio. The Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity subsequently came out with an explanation for this change (see Denz.-H 5106). I really think the main reason was that Benedict XVI didn’t want the Eastern Orthodox to have the idea that the Roman Pontiff’s authority is only over “the West.”

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I don’t think the LifeSite story is fake news, but I think some people are reading more things into the reference to “historical titles” than are really there.

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We don’t really know if Pope Francis doesn’t like the title Vicar of Christ. This is the questionable inference that Viganò and others have made on the basis of a minor editorial change in the Annuario Pontificio.

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I looked again at the Italian page of the Annuario. At the end of the biographical section it mentions March 19, 2013 as the “solemn initiation of his ministry as Pastor of the Universal Church.” To be “Pastor of the Universal Church” is certainly the supreme responsibility of the Roman Pontiff. This does not suggest any distancing from the role of being the Vicar of Jesus Christ.

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The other titles are under the heading “historical titles.” As I’ve noted, to say these titles are historical does not at all mean that they are not applicable today.

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The titles listed as historical are:

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Vicar of Jesus Christ

Successor of the Prince of the Apostles

Primate of Italy

Archbishop and Primate of the Roman Province

Sovereign of Vatican City State

Servant of the Servants of God

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Some of these historical titles are rooted in the deposit of faith, and others are more recent. For example, “Sovereign of Vatican City State” would apply only since the 1929 Lateran Treaty. Perhaps this is the reason why these titles are listed as historical. Some of them might not apply in the future. As you know, the title “Patriarch of the West” was dropped in the Annuario in 2006 (and there was some controversy at the time).

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Perhaps Pope Francis wanted these titles listed as “historical” out of humility, but that’s simply speculation. The title “Pastor of the Universal Church” is not listed as historical and that title flows from the fact that the Pope is the successor of St. Peter and the supreme Vicar of Jesus Christ on earth.

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Viganò and others are making conclusions based on questionable inferences. This is similar to the whole idolatry accusation. It’s unjust and uncharitable to draw conclusions without evidence.

The article in Catholic Herald, drawn from Catholic News Agency, allows the Vatican to explain:

Matteo Bruni, director of the Holy See press office, told the Italian bishops’ newspaper Avvenire that the yearbook was not declaring that the title Vicar of Christ was merely of historical significance.

If that were the case, Avvenire reported, the title would simply have been removed. Bruni cited Pope Benedict XVI’s decision to drop the title “Patriarch of the West” from the Annuario in 2006. This was widely understood to be an ecumenical gesture aimed at healing the centuries-long breach between Catholics and other Christians.

Bruni said that the titles were classified as “historical” because they are tied historically to the title bishop of Rome. A new pope acquires them the moment he is elected in a conclave. [italics for proper names added]

Lastly, Catholic apologist Karl Keating has chimed in as well, on his public Facebook page (4-4-20):

Some people have made far too much of this, as I have commented on some Facebook threads. But no one of stature, so far as I know, has gone as far as Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò. . . .

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It doesn’t “seem possible” to see in the change that the pope is disavowing being the Vicar of Christ and so on. It would be one thing to assert that the editorial change had no particular justification and should have been left undone. It’s something else to say the pope is, in effect, denying being the pope. (If a pope denies being the Vicar of Christ, he pretty much is denying that there is a papacy.)

I have appreciated much of what Archbishop Viganò has said over the last few years, without necessarily agreeing with his phrasing, but this goes far too far.

Keating added in various comments underneath his post:

[Abp. Vigano’s opinion is] going to hold less weight if he keeps saying cockamamie things like this.

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He didn’t misspeak. He wrote out a statement that he issued to the press.

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Viganò claims that the pope “has officially disavowed” being the Vicar of Christ, which must mean that he has disavowed being the pope–and has done so officially. Viganò isn’t claiming Francis to be a heretic. That would be a different claim.

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“The Pope has denied being Pope”? Show us exactly where. You’re jumping from legitimate criticism of some of his actions to conspiratorial nonsense. It’s bad for the Church and bad for you.

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He isn’t “refusing” to acknowledge his titles.They’re right below his biography!

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I’m sure it wasn’t a printer’s mistake. I think the most likely reason was to make the pope’s entry in the yearbook be in the same format as the other entries, which all begin with the bishop’s name.

As so often in these matters, it’s claimed that Pope Francis denies something or other; then it is easy enough (via the Vatican website, that has a very good search engine) to find him asserting the thing he supposedly denied (or in this case, he uses one of the titles of the popes). In fact, Pope Francis has referred to “Vicar of Christ” at least three times:

I received with great joy the kind letter you sent me, on your own behalf and on behalf of the Society of Jesus, on the occasion of my election to the See of St Peter. In it you informed me of your prayers for me and for my apostolic ministry, as well as of your total willingness to continue serving the Church and the Vicar of Christ unconditionally, in accordance with the precept of St Ignatius of Loyola. (Letter to the Superior General of the Society of Jesus, 3-16-13)

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The Pope is a bishop, the Bishop of Rome, and because he is the Bishop of Rome he is the Successor of Peter, Vicar of Christ. There are other titles, but the first title is “Bishop of Rome” and everything follows from that. To say, to think that this means being primus inter pares, no, that does not follow. It is simply the Pope’s first title: Bishop of Rome. But there are others too … (Airplane Press Conference, 7-28-13)

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The Institutions to which you belong — formed into a Consortium by Pope Pius XI in 1928 — are entrusted to the Society of Jesus, and share the same desire “to serve as a soldier of God beneath the banner of the Cross … and to serve the Lord alone and the Church, His spouse, under the Roman Pontiff, the Vicar of Christ on earth” (Formula, 1). (Address to the Community of the Pontifical Gregorian University et al, 4-10-14)

If someone objects (rather desperately, I would say) that “he only did it three times!” I reply that many other popes only used it just a few times, too:

Ven. Pope Pius XII used it eleven times; Leo XIII, six; Pius XI, five; St. Pius X, three; and St. John XXIII, just twice. Others used it more: Pope St. Paul VI, 24; Pope St. John Paul II, 63; but then the use was reduced quite a bit with Pope Benedict XVI (19). Clearly, there is no requirement to use it a lot. Pope Francis is simply similar in this respect to four other popes: two of them saints, and one (St. Pius X) particularly renowned for his traditionalism and opposition to modernism; and he referred to it only three times, just as Pope Francis has.

Popes exhibit all kinds of non-dogmatic differences of emphasis amongst themselves. For example, Pope St. John Paul II wrote a considerably greater amount of material about the Blessed Virgin Mary than Pope Benedict XVI did. Does this “prove” that the latter pope loved Mary less, or held to a heterodox Mariology? No, not at all; he simply didn’t write about her as much, and when he did, he was relatively less expressive and “flowery” than St. John Paul II. Possibly, he may not have written as much, precisely because his predecessor had done quite a bit, and there were many other topics to be addressed, as always. Different strokes . . .

So once again, the current anti-Francis “controversy” (only the latest of an endless wrongheaded supply) is a tempest in a teapot, much ado about nothing; a nothingburger. This is my 168th time defending the Holy Father, and I must say that it has been pretty easy to do, too (such is the utter weakness of the attempts to discredit him), in all but a very few cases. Back to your regularly scheduled program . . .

Bishops Viganò & Schneider Reject Authority of Vatican II [11-22-19]

Viganò, Schneider, Pachamama, & VCII (vs. Janet E. Smith) [11-25-19]

Pope Francis vs. the Marian Title “Co-Redemptrix”? (+ Documentation of Pope Francis’ and Other Popes’ Use of the Mariological Title of Veneration: “Mother of All”) [12-16-19]

Abp. Viganó Descends into Fanatical Reactionary Nuthood (. . . Declares Pope Francis a Heretical Narcissist Who “Desacralized” & “Impugned” & “Attack[ed]” Mary) [12-20-19]

Pope Francis’ Deep Devotion to Mary (Esp. Mary Mediatrix) [12-23-19]

Dr. Fastiggi: Open Letter Re Abp. Viganò, Pope Francis, & Mary [2-22-20]

Radical Catholic Reactionaries vs. Catholic Traditionalism web page

The Papacy and Infallibility web page

Pope Francis Defended: Resources for Confused or Troubled Folks [347 articles]

Replies to Critiques of Pope Francis (Dave Armstrong) [168 of my own articles]

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Photo credit: from the article, “Words We’re Watching: ‘Nothingburger'” (Merriam-Webster).

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Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus

April 4, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

These replies, amounting eventually to a general and multi-faceted defense, started when I read a Facebook post from one of my Canadian cousins who is very dear to me (I am half-Canadian; my father was born there) . . . expressing Canadian anger over Trump ordering a company (3M) to stop selling N95 masks to Canada.

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I will temporarily suspend my resolution to not talk politics during Lent. :-) Only for you . . .

I’d really like to understand your thinking and why you (and at least two more of my cousins) are angry about this. I just read from an article with today’s date:

The U.S. is facing a dire shortage of N95 face masks, and they are only going to be more difficult to find as COVID-19 cases keep accelerating and manufacturers struggle to keep up with skyrocketing demand.

Major retailers, including Home Depot, [have] stopped selling these masks in store in order to free up more inventory for health care workers and those working in high-risk environments; smaller sellers with limited supply are running prices through the roof; and the federal government has nearly depleted its stockpile of N95s as well as other personal protective equipment (PPE).

So this is our situation. We have a severe shortage of these masks: needed especially by all the selfless health care workers.

As of an hour ago, we have 7,152 deaths from coronavirus, and 277,953 cases. Canada (as you have pointed out on my own page) has far fewer cases and deaths (188 and 12,545). By my math that is 38 times fewer deaths in Canada and 22 times fewer cases.

Because of this, we have a severe shortage of medical supplies, including these masks. Now, I’m sure that that will change soon, because lots of people are cranking them out, just as the Willow Run plant near us [metro Detroit] cranked out the bombers that helped win World War II. We’ll get it done, and it won’t be long. Then I say, send them all around the world to whomever needs them.

Once we get a handle on our own severe crisis and have adequate supplies, I’m quite sure we will send you whatever you need. No one in the history of the world has helped other countries as much as we have: not even close. We even do that with countries who tried to devour us in a world war (Japan, Germany). Mark my words: when we are under control, Canada will get all she wants from us, no questions asked.

But right now, in our state of national emergency, we have these dire shortages, and so are not exactly in a position where we can help others with the very medical supplies that we are dangerously short of, costing even more lives, for sure. Probably soon, when our pandemic winds down, we can help you, when your numbers start rapidly rising (as they likely will, but I pray not), but not now in the midst of it.

So in this present dire situation for the US, you are mad about one of our companies selling you these masks, so they can make more profit? That’s not the view of Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and no conservative Republican (who is helping to produce many thousands of these masks himself). He stated four days ago about 3M, the company in question (i.e., before this current controversy happened):

“3M lists all its distributors online, the ones buying and selling these things, and these distributors are making as much money as they possibly can. It’s wrong, it’s criminal,” Cuban said in the interview. “It’s operating like an illegal drug market, not a legitimate market. I get wanting to make millions of dollars, but people are dying.”

You say you helped us after 9-11, and so you did, and we are grateful, as we are about your military partnership on many occasions as well. But I don’t see how this is analogous to the situation today at all. Saying you helped us then, so we should help you right now is like saying that New York City should have been concerned about helping Canada the day after 9-11.

Obviously, it could not have been expected to do so. Our deaths are now over twice those of 9-11 and we don’t know who is carrying the virus but not showing symptoms. This is what they are feverishly working on right now.

So I respectfully and lovingly submit to my cousins: give us a break! I’m sure we will be able to help you after we get over our own health crisis, or at least when we are over our supply crisis in the midst of the health emergency (around 1,000 deaths per day right now).

I actually live in one of the currently three worst places in the US. Our Wayne County alone has 223 deaths so far: more than your entire country. Neighboring Oakland and Macomb counties add 201 more deaths. Cobo Hall, the big convention center in Detroit (my high school graduation was in its arena, and we used to go to the big Christmas display there every year, sometimes with the Youngs [our cousins who lived across the river in Windsor, Ontario] ) is now a field hospital.

So in effect you would be arguing: “don’t send those masks to places like Wayne County and New York City, where people are dropping like flies. After all, Canada needs them!”

I confess that this makes no sense to me whatsoever. Perhaps you can explain to me what I am missing in your reasoning.

Tons o’ Love 2 ya, as always,

Cuzzin Dave, the Southerner with half-Canadian blood running through my veins.

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I have “come to realize” it is a problem? [laughter] I supported Trump’s decision to stop flights from China on January 31st. Eight days earlier, the World Health Organization stated that the virus was not yet a global health emergency. The US had only five cases on January 26th.

Joe Biden condemned Trump as a xenophobic bigot for stopping China flights. But now we know for sure that the influx of Chinese visitors totally caused that tragic outbreak to occur.

Two weeks later on Feb. 15th, China (if we are to believe them, which is another issue) was reporting 143 deaths from the virus: less than we have in my own county right now. The first death in the US occurred on Feb. 29th: almost a month after Trump shut down China travel.

I would say that is very early to take action in perhaps the best possible way he could have: a type of quarantine regarding Chinese visitors to the US. Trump stopped European travel on March 11th (which I also supported). He caught hell for that, too. So he was supposed to let thousands of Europeans (including Italians) into the country, just so he wouldn’t be called a bigot (which liberals will never cease calling him, anyway, because they call every Republican president a bigoted moron)? What kind of madness is that? On March 11th, Mark Landler wrote in The New York Times:

In an Oval Office address on Wednesday night, he imposed a 30-day ban on travel from Europe to the United States, claiming, without evidence, that the European Union’s lax initial response had brought more cases of the virus across the Atlantic, with “a large number of new clusters” seeded by travelers from the Continent. . . .

The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe, which is sowing cynicism and leaving people uncertain of whom to believe.

You want to blame Trump for this mess (rather than the lying Chinese Communist government, which is where the fault resides). But the worst area by far in the US is New York City. Why? Well, arguably, because Mayor Bill de Blasio (a very liberal guy) was absurdly late in responding to the problem. He declared on Twitter as late as March 2nd: “I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and get out on the town despite Coronavirus.”

On March 3rd, the Archdiocese of Detroit took strong measures to slow the spread of the virus: stopping holy water fonts, discontinuing shaking hands during Mass, and discontinuing the cup during Holy Communion.

On March 6th Mayor de Blasio stated: “the vast majority of places I’m going in the city, I’m seeing people going about their business.”

And on March 8th: “Based on the information we have today we are not, not altering our stance on public events.” Large public gatherings were still permitted.

On March 9th, Italy announced its national quarantine, but de Blasio wouldn’t even close public schools or discourage subway travel.

On March 11th, de Blasio said he was “telling people to not avoid restaurants, not avoid normal things that people do. . . . If you’re not sick, you should be going about your life.” This was just four days before the city finally closed its schools. And he said, “Ebola makes, if I could be so cold, coronavirus look like a walk in the park.” On the same day, the NBA suspended its season. But de Blasio was telling New Yorkers to go to restaurants and maintain a normal life. Hundreds were surely passing along the virus by then.

Our Governor Whitmer (also a Democrat) issued a ban on all gatherings above 250 people on March 13th.

On March 13th, the Archdiocese of Detroit suspended all Masses.

On March 16th The New York Times reported that for the past week, the mayor’s “top aides were furiously trying to change the mayor’s approach to the coronavirus outbreak. There had been arguments and shouting matches between the mayor and some of his advisers; some top health officials had even threatened to resign if he refused to accept the need to close schools and businesses, according to several people familiar with the internal discussions.”

On the same day, Governor Andrew Cuomo limited gatherings to 50 people and closed bars and restaurants:

On the 18th, he ordered businesses to keep 50 percent of their workers at home, then increased that to 75 percent the next day. On the 20th, he ordered all nonessential businesses to close.

By March 23rd, there were already more than 20,000 coronavirus cases in New York state.

Also on March 16th, on the advice of pandemic experts Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, President Trump issued his 15-day guidelines, which followed to a tee the standard model accepted by most scientists: the Imperial College study spearheaded by Neil Ferguson. This called for voluntary isolation as much as possible, avoiding groups larger than ten people, lots of washing of hands, not touching your face, staying home if you are sick, or if anyone in your family tests positive, etc.

Our Governor Whitmer issued a stay-at-home shutdown order on March 23rd, for three weeks. It has since been extended to June 7th.

By March 27th, “New York City’s coronavirus death toll hit 365. The city’s number of confirmed cases is 23,112, jumping 3,101 cases from the day before. Makeshift morgues are set up outside the hospitals in refrigerated trailers. New York City doctors were describing the situation as “hell . . . the system is overwhelmed . . . worse than 9/11.”

The death toll now in New York City is 1,867, with 1,035 more deaths in other parts of New York state (total of 2,902 and continuing to grow). 2,996 died on 9-11. And there are several hundreds more in neighboring New Jersey.

Yet it is still the case on April 4th that Governor Cuomo is not allowing New York residents, suffering from the virus, to obtain the most hopeful treatment of coronavirus, hydroxychloroquine, through pharmacists. The drug was approved for this usage by the FDA on March 30th. Many doctors want to prescribe it to patients, but the governor insists that they have to do it through the already extraordinarily burdened and dangerous hospitals. So more will die, no doubt, because of this madness, too.

See documentation for the New York City timeline and many of the citations above.

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I think Trump was relatively fast in his responses, according to how the virus was proceeding.

As I noted, he stopped travel from China on Jan. 31st. He stopped most European travel on March 12th (England and Ireland soon after). Prime Minister Trudeau stopped non-US travel to Canada on March 16th, even though his own wife had been infected for a week by then. So who was too slow? What’s the saying about people in glass houses?

How about when the two countries shut down and did the quarantine and social distancing thing? I found an article updated March 11th, from your National Post. It stated:

In the United States, where COVID-19 has sickened more than 800 people and killed at least 30, sports teams are playing without crowds, several concerts have been cancelled and some schools and universities [shortly after, even churches] are shutting down in an effort to keep the virus from spreading.

Canada, meanwhile, has seen very limited domestic transmission of the virus, and event planners say it’s largely business as usual until that changes.

So it is pretty much the same response on the same timeline. When there are few cases and far fewer deaths than cases, both the US (including evil, wicked Trump) and Canada took a cautious “wait and see” attitude. As the cases and deaths grew, then they clamped down and instituted strict measures. This very article links to another in the same magazine form the day before. Note what it stated:

The coronavirus could hit 35 to 70 per cent of the Canadian population, making “a huge number of people ill,” many critically, and makeshift hospitals and quarantine centres could be needed to shore up a health system that has virtually no give, experts predict.

According to a disease-transmission model developed by University of Toronto researchers, the virus’ overall attack rate in Canada, without public health interventions, could exceed 70 per cent. That number drops sharply, by about half, “if we add modest control,” said epidemiologist Dr. David Fisman, one of the model’s creators, but it will take “aggressive social distancing and large scale quarantines” to reduce it further, he said.

So all this was known about the coming situation in Canada by that date, yet the prevailing mentality was still “it’s largely business as usual.” Meanwhile, in the US we were shutting down sports events, churches, schools, and other large social events.

Sorry, I see no big difference there, and it’s quite unfair to blame Trump for things that your country seems to have done in almost exactly the same way (though later than we did, because you had less cases). But your experts were still saying that the virus was on its way and could infect 70% of Canadians.

What a difference two days make! Canada finally started shutting down on March 13th. Why? Because the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on March 11th.

So your shutdown corresponded almost exactly with ours. It was the same day Michigan Governor Whitmer shut down Michigan gatherings above 250, and the archdiocese of Detroit suspended all Masses. President Trump declared a national emergency on this same day (March 13th). At that time there were 1,701 confirmed cases and 40 deaths. Again, I see little difference at all. Countries respond proportionately to how much of a crisis they think they are in.

So it seems to simply boil down to your personal dislike of Trump, which, of course, is not itself an argument. So many arguments come down to personal disdain of him. But it seems to me a crisis like this has to be about much more than our personal dislikes. There were many Brits who didn’t care for Winston Churchill at all, but in the grave situation of 1940, he became everyone’s leader and the political antipathies went by the wayside, while the very existence of western civilization was being maintained. Then after the war he was booted out and the country went for the Labour Party . . .

Meanwhile, even Democrat governors have been praising Trump’s response to the crisis; for example, ultra-liberal California governor Gavin Newsom:

I’d be lying to you to say that he hasn’t been responsive to our needs. He has . . . And so, as a question, as a sort of an offer of objectivity, I have to acknowledge that publicly. The fact is, every time I’ve called the president, he’s quickly gotten on the line.

Even as early as March 9th, he praised Trump:

“We had a private conversation, but he said, ‘We’re gonna do the right thing’ and ‘You have my support, all of our support, logistically and otherwise,'” Newsom told reporters at a Monday news conference.

“He said everything I could have hoped for,” the governor asserted. “And we had a very long conversation and every single thing he said, they followed through on,” he noted.

“Every single thing… has been consistent with expectation we’d repatriate these passengers and do it in a way that does justice to the spirit that defines the best of our country,” the governor said.

Newsom said that he has received “consistent” support from Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, who is leading the administration’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo did the same on March 17th:

“His team is on it. They’ve been responsive . . . I want to say thank you.”

The Democratic governor said that he spoke to Trump on Tuesday and that the president is “100 percent sincere” in his desire to work with the state to control the virus outbreak, which has mushroomed in the U.S. over the past week.

The administration is “ready and willing to help,” Cuomo said, “especially on the hospital capacity issue.”

And the next day:

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo praised the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak during a press conference Wednesday, saying “we’re fighting the same war… we’re in the same trench.”

“He is fully engaged on trying to help… He’s being very creative & very energetic and I thank him for his partnership.”

Cuomo said Trump was doing a “really good job” and specifically praised him for sending a U.S. Navy hospital ship with 1,000 beds to New York.

Even Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota: an extreme critic of the president and one of the most liberal members of Congress, praised him on March 19th:

Politics aside, this is incredible and the right response in this critical time, . . . we should never let politics get in the way of good policy. This is a great start and hope others will be part of a united front to push for good policies that will help us work through the economic anxiety the country is feeling right now.

Looks like he’s doing a great job to me.

Lastly, even an expert as widely praised (across the political spectrum) as Dr. Anthony Fauci, was talking very differently back between January 21st and February 21st. Very few (if anyone) could see what was coming in March until it was upon us. It makes it all the more remarkable that President Trump closed travel from China on January 31st. And he also saw early on the potential life-saving capabilities of hydroxychloroquine: now increasingly endorsed by many medical experts and doctors. It’s irrational and unjust to the extreme to place all the blame on the President for the virus.

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My cousin opined: “You yourself as well as your president have been…… up until a few days ago insisted it was under control.”

I did not think this. I don’t know where you are getting this idea. I’ve been making various statements about many aspects of it, but they have to be understood in context.

Our family has totally agreed with and have observed all the recommended guidelines about social distancing and quarantine, and that goes back to mid-March. I have fought conspiratorial hysteria on the far right and anti-Trump hatred and intransigence on the far left. Neither implies that I am contending that no problem exists. I am contending that hysteria and anger do not solve anything.

I have written about the graph curve starting to flatten, not because I am denying that the crisis exists, but because — by nature — I try to look for hopeful signs to encourage my readers. I’ve been tracking the daily deaths since March 22nd. Again, this isn’t denying anything about the crisis. It’s simply looking to see when the light at the end of the tunnel might appear.

So please kindly desist from claiming that I am in some kind of massive denial of the problem. There are Republicans and committed Christians (too many) who do that. I am not one of them. I have condemned them for doing so. For example, opposing the opinions of the far ecclesiological right on March 17th, I wrote:

What I am contending is that if Taylor Marshall wants to argue this way about God’s judgment, and apply it to the current pandemic tragedy (complete with absurd, ludicrous charges that the suspension of Masses — even in pandemic-ravaged Italy? — is also part of God’s judgment), then he has to explain this anomaly of the “good guy” being afflicted and the arch-enemy “bad guy” and antichrist, Pope Francis, walking the streets of Rome virus-free thus far.

I can hardly call the coronavirus a “pandemic tragedy” while at the same time deny that it exists as a major problem and claim it is “under control.” So the fact that you have this notion in your head about me only shows that you have either not read much of my writing about it, or have wildly misunderstood it.

In my first blog article about it on March 13th, I was merely noting that most of the deaths were of elderly persons with existing conditions, and saying that we need not “panic” and that “hysteria” wouldn’t help at all. It doesn’t follow, however, that I was denying the seriousness of the pandemic, for in the same article I wrote:

That’s not to deny the deeply and profoundly serious nature of what we face over the next few months at a minimum. We need to take sensible, rational precautions (most importantly for the elderly and those with any medical condition) — thoroughly wash hands, avoid unnecessary contact and large crowds, stay home if sick, do whatever else is being recommended by the experts in the field.

That’s March 13th. So kindly please stop saying that I have supposedly come to my senses and accepted reality just a few days ago. Thanks!

*
***

Addendum (April 7th): I wrote on April 4th (three days earlier, as I write), to one of my Canadian first cousins (included above):

Once we get a handle on our own severe crisis and have adequate supplies, I’m quite sure we will send you whatever you need. . . . Mark my words: when we are under control, Canada will get all she wants from us, no questions asked.

So, lo and behold, all of two days later, the Trump administration and 3M made a deal, and I was made into a prophet:

The Trump administration has agreed a deal with the US manufacturer 3M to import more than 166m respirators from China over the next three months and allow 3M to continue exporting its US-made respirators. . . .

Meanwhile, the 3M statement said: “The plan will also enable 3M to continue sending US produced respirators to Canada and Latin America, where 3M is the primary source of supply.”

See also a second article verifying this.

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit:enriquelopezgarre(4-2-20) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus?

March 28, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice

I just ran across an article, “Why Chinese tourists love Italy’s quaint rural villages: . . .” (Silvia Marchetti, South China Morning Post, 12-12-19). It stated:

More Chinese tourists have visited Italy this year than any other European country, with many seeking out the country’s villages and hamlets. . . .

Forget about France, Germany or Greece – Italy is now the most popular European destination for Chinese tourists.. . .

According to Italian tourism authorities, roughly 3.5 million Chinese travellers had visited Italy this year by the end of October [2019], . . .

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, and expert on epidemics, agrees with this assessment as a big factor in the spread of the virus, stating:

Italy got hit very badly because they had a large number of importations from China by Chinese tourists . . . Before they even knew what was going on, there was enough baseline people spreading that it essentially got out of hand, . . .

I think this can explain much of it, in and of itself. Of course, it obviously isn’t the fault of these tourists: that many were carrying a virus that originated in China; therefore, Europeans would not have built up any immunity to it. It’s similar to Europeans bringing various diseases to the New World after 1492. The Native Americans and other indigenous people dropped like flies because they had no immunity.

That wasn’t the Europeans’ fault (many other things were); likewise, this isn’t the Chinese people’s fault. It’s their terrible government that covered up the epidemic in its beginning stages, who bear the blame (I think, the most blame in this whole tragedy). No one knows better than the Chinese how oppressive and evil their Communist government is. A government is not the same as the people the government governs.

I will take this opportunity to utterly condemn and abhor any and all acts of prejudice or bigotry against Chinese people, or Chinese-Americans (and other Asian-Americans: to the extent that they may be also affected to some degree). It’s a terrible American trait to look down on ethnic groups different from one’s own. Our original sin was slavery. Even after we abolished that, it took another hundred years to get rid of institutionalized racism, enshrined in law.

Though racism is without question grotesquely exaggerated and made the topic of constant demagoguery by Democrats, for political purposes, it doesn’t follow that it doesn’t exist at all. It does, and those who are the recipients of it know this full well. One can discuss how prevalent it is, but anyone with two brain cells wouldn’t deny that it still does.

I understand why President Trump has been using the term, “Chinese flu.” His point is that it originated there (just as the term “Spanish flu” has been used for over a hundred years to name the terrible flu pandemic of 1918). As I understand it, he is also protesting the claim by the Chinese government that the coronavirus was introduced there by American soldiers. So, typically, it’s his provocative way of sticking a finger in the eye of the Chinese dictator and his lackeys. It does not imply at all (in his mind) that there is anything wrong or inferior about Chinese people.

The New York Times addressed the “American soldiers” fiction in an article dated 3-13-20:

China is pushing a new theory about the origins of the coronavirus: It is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October.

There is not a shred of evidence to support that, but the notion received an official endorsement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whose spokesman accused American officials of not coming clean about what they know about the disease.

The intentional spreading of an unfounded conspiracy theory — which recirculated on China’s tightly controlled internet on Friday — punctuated a downward spiral in relations between the two countries . . .

The circulation of disinformation is not a new tactic for the Communist Party state. The United States, in particular, is often a foil of Chinese propaganda efforts.

That said, I agree that — especially in the present tense situation –, the term “Chinese flu” can cause repercussions among unsavory people inclined towards racism and bigotry, who take it out on innocent victims. Benjamin Tong is a Facebook friend of mine, and he wrote on my page:

I agree that it could have been worse without restricting travelers from China entering the US. And a Democrat president could have handled it worse. As a Chinese descendant, I’m okay with President Trump not being PC in these precautions, however, not likely to forgive him for calling the disease “Chinese virus”. Now in America and Europe, many Chinese and Asians are facing discrimination and some even suffer from hate crimes everyday because of this disease. And I think that President Trump is making it worse by using the term “Chinese virus”.

I basically agree with him. I don’t think it’s racist per se, or that Trump is, but I take his point, which is a valid one.

Likewise, my friend Dr. Christopher Atwood, a professional historian who specializes in Mongolian Studies, wrote on my Facebook page:

Reality check: most Asians I know who go out have experienced at the very least occasional strange looks, muttered comments, ostentatious distancing, and similar things in public if not worse. Pretty much every Asian I know would like to wear a mask to protect themselves and others, but is scared to do it because they worry it will provoke hostility. That’s the reality. If Trump really wanted to address this, he would do a news conference in a mask.

I myself (having written several articles about the virus) have always — from the beginning — used the word “coronavirus.” I even checked just now to make sure. I’ve been an observer (and condemner) of racism and prejudice literally for 53 years. It started as a result of the Detroit Riots in 1967. Then I majored in sociology at Wayne State University in Detroit. I’ve always been very passionate about the great wrongness and immorality of it.

Accordingly, I have written articles condemning names of sports teams like Cleveland Indians or Atlanta Braves or Washington Redskins. For the record, I received very vigorous opposition in taking that stand. I grant that there may be a legitimate case to be made (and indeed, many Native Americans: maybe even a majority, as I recall, say that they don’t care). In any event, I think it shows that I am sensitive to labeling aspects like this concerning ethnic groups other than my own (Anglo-Saxon / Celtic-, Scottish-, and Canadian-American) and how it affects minority groups in America. So I “get it.”

***

Sara Belligoni wrote a very insightful article entitled, “5 reasons the coronavirus hit Italy so hard” (The Conversation, 3-26-20). None of her five reasons included the great number of Chinese tourists. She observed:

1. Lots of old people

Italians have the sixth-longest life expectancy in the world – 84 years old. That means lots of Italians are elderly: In 2018, 22.6% of its population was 65 or over, among the highest proportions in Europe.

Medical researchers have said the coronavirus poses a more serious threat to older people than to younger ones. . . .

2. Close proximity

Italians aren’t used to social distancing. They are very physically affectionate people: Hugs and cheek-kisses are common not just among family members but also friends and even work colleagues.

Even when they’re just chatting, Italians are closer together than many other people, because their culture’s psychological perception of personal space is smaller than in other countries. . . .

3. Dense population

There isn’t a lot of space in Italy for people to spread out in. Italy is a densely populated country, with an average density of 533 people per square mile. In comparison, Germany has a population density of 235 people per square mile while the U.S. has 94. . . .

4. Northern Italy is a business hub

Milan, in northern Italy, is the country’s financial capital, and has close trade and educational connections with China. The whole region of northern Italy is home to offices for many multinational corporations.

5. Massive number of cases

[ . . .]

This is obviously bad news for Italy, but encouraging to the rest of the world insofar as it shows that circumstances leading to the great tragedy there are fairly unique and wouldn’t be replicated in their entirety elsewhere. In other words, other countries are not likely at all to have their experience. The US has the most cases anywhere now, but a far lower death rate than Italy. And even in Italy there are already signs that the plague is starting to decrease.

***

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: Alexey_Hulsov (3-12-20) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II

March 27, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

This continues the discussion that took place in the previous installment, with Paul Connors. His words will be in blue. My words from last time that he cites, will be in green and indented.

*****

Thanks for your continuing replies. I love opportunities to clarify and counter-reply. It helps everyone clarify their own views.

This is precisely the problem in many of the ‘apocalyptic’ models and predictions: they assume we will sit on our butts and do nothing whatever, which is utterly naive and unrealistic.

Models? What you say about the models is false. Of the two scientific models that have come under your criticism, neither does any such thing. Each of them presents a range of possible actions and their estimated effects.

I haven’t named any models that I think are “apocalyptic.” You have simply assumed it. I never said that the famous Ferguson model was that. Nor have I even classified him as politically “left” (I have no idea what political inclinations he has; and don’t care). Quite the contrary; I praised him to the skies:

[E]veryone’s talking about Dr. Neil Ferguson: and well they should. He’s an important figure, and deserves high praise for likely having saved many millions of lives. How many people can say that they have done that? It’s extraordinary.

Thus, in absence of specifically naming any, it’s reasonable to assume that I was referring to the hysterical ruminations of Mary P. and Rebecca Hamilton, which I was. Anyone can see that I think their predictions and claims are absurd, and therefore, fall into the category that I am excoriating as leftish “apocalypticism” and doom-and-gloom, etc.

I recognize the importance of worst-case scenarios. They have their place to make people realize real possibilities of what could actually happen. But then the media and the leftish doom-and-gloom outlook take that and present it as if no one could possibly disagree with it.

Exactly what you mean by “disagree with it” is not at all clear.

What I mean is that it tends to become (at least in the media and the usual left-dominated venues: academia, Hollywood et al) some unquestioned quasi-dogma, and anyone who thinks differently is summarily dismissed as “anti-science.” It’s a variation of the climate change canard: “99.99999% of scientists accept climate change in its full doom-and-gloom Al Gore sense.” Neither thing is true. And this is what I was critiquing. I am not anti-science if I happen to believe that there won’t be 100 million deaths from coronavirus.

If it was gonna be the worst-case scenario, China would have been the obvious place for that to happen. As it is, they only have had 3,296 deaths, which is nothing compared to the annual flu epidemic that I believe every nation experiences. Italy can be said to be the worst-case scenario (9,134 deaths out of 86,948 cases), but even that — terrible and tragic as it is — is pretty small compared to other outbreaks and catastrophes. So, for example, one scientific study from 2018 summarized about the 1918 influenza epidemic in Italy:

The new estimate of deaths from the flu is 410,000 for 1918, which should be raised to 466,000 when the numbers are taken up to 1920. Deaths from Spanish flu among the military were about 70,000. The time sequence of deaths recognizes two distinct peaks, one in October and one in November 1918.

Judging from past responses, you’d probably say, “well, this ain’t over yet . . .” Granted, but again I say, as I have, so far there is no comparison in the statistics (9,134 is 2.2% of 410,000), and time will tell what the final result will be. There are indications that the crisis in Italy has hit its peak and is stating to decline; though it is more of a jagged graph curve. A CNBC article noted three days ago:

The number of deaths rose by 601 on Monday, the smallest increase in four days, according to data from the Italian authorities. The number of new confirmed cases also slowed Monday. These figures have raised expectations that the worse could be over for the country with the highest number of deaths from the virus worldwide.

I’m tracking the same sort of thing in the US: it is a general decline in the rate of increase over the last week. That’s the top of the curve, and may not be the “beginning of the end” but likely is the “end of the beginning,” as a friend of mine stated. Bottom line: if Italy is the very worst scenario we can observe so far, and even there it looks like it is (thank God) slowly starting to decline and decrease, then the absolute nightmare scenario for the whole word seems to be considerably less plausible, at least prima facie (as a best guesstimate).

If you think that the worst-case scenarios presented (which are those where no action is taken) are not correct, present your own model for a different worst-case scenario. If you mean that people present that worst-case scenario and then don’t call for action, or don’t talk about what things we might have to do to avoid that worst-case scenario, then I don’t see the evidence. Or perhaps you are being equivocal about the meaning of “worst-case scenario”, using it sometimes to refer to the case where no action is taken, and sometimes to refer to what is the worst that is possible after action has been taken.

I have just explained what my view is. I’m all for the standard quarantine and social distancing precautions being recommended and observed, and do so myself. I’m talking about the overall picture, which incorporates action being taken by nations: precisely as is happening on a wide scale. These in turn bring the numbers way down, which is why Neil Ferguson said that the death toll in England will be lower than 20,000 rather than 500,000 (because they followed his advice).

I fail to see how all of these observable facts add up to a nightmare / worst-case scenario. They just don’t. If estimated deaths in England are now 25 times less (96% less) than they could have been, how is that a worst-case scenario?

Israeli Nobel Prize winner and Stanford biophysicist Michael Levitt … Why is it that we’re talking a lot less about the person who has made such accurate and stunning predictions?

What Levitt is doing is plotting a graph of the death numbers versus time, and then extrapolating a short distance into the future. That’s not a model. It’s simply an observation of the effects of whatever health measures have been put in place. It’s utterly useless for predicting what will happen when those measures are removed, or when different measures are put in place — and thus it is useless for guiding what to do.

You can call it whatever you like. He accurately predicted what happened in China. It wasn’t Ferguson or anyone else. Yet all you can do is blow that off and act as if it is useless information. It should be highly encouraging to all of us and give us great hope that the whole crisis will be far shorter and much less severe than it could have been if we responded stupidly.

I do notice that Levitt has previously said “I will be surprised if the number of deaths in Israel surpasses 10”. The number is currently 12. So far.

So this is your big counter-argument? He was off by two deaths in a total of 3,035 cases, and you think this is a bad prediction? What a joke . . . Now, to my knowledge, he hasn’t made any such definite prediction for the US, but if he does, I will take it very seriously.

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: ArtTower (6-30-17) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus

March 27, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

Paul Connors critiqued at some length the reasoning in my article yesterday about coronavirus, “Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic” in the combox for that piece. Of course, I counter-replied. His words will be in blue (and if he responds further, all of that and my replies will be added here).

*****

While there are definitely exaggerations in posts from other authors, your own post is a view through strongly rose-colored glasses, mixed with a few misleading statements. Have you read the original paper by Ferguson (et al)? All of it is here:

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

There are some very important caveats in that paper, which have to be taken into account before drawing any conclusion about exactly what the current status of the virus’s impact is, and what may too easily happen in the future.

Tell me what you think are misleading statements and why. Thanks!

Read the original paper. Reading the original has been my rule for understanding Catholic theology correctly and, unsurprisingly, it works just as well for science. I’m sure that various governments (or their advisors) have taken on board what those simulations show, because they are very unsure what to do next.

That won’t tell me what you think are misleading statements in my paper. If you wanna make some criticism of me, then you’re gonna have to back it up; and expect a vigorous rebuttal if I think you’re wrong, and a quick concession (and change in the paper) [which indeed I did do; see below] if I think you’re right and I was wrong.

In response to Brian Fraga post of 3/25/2020 you say: “I don’t see how this is true (at least not so far if it is still to come).”

Unfortunately you don’t specify exactly what “this” is referring to.

I was referring back to his statement that we were in “a national crisis on a scale that we arguably have not experienced as a nation since World War II.”

So all I was saying that I didn’t think this was true now. But I conceded (twice) that it may eventually be true, by writing:

I don’t see how this is true (at least not so far if it is still to come). The current yearly flu epidemic in the US is far worse than coronavirus has been here (again, at least so far) [bolding added presently]

Sure, but given the possible scale of the disaster that threatens if we do nothing (two million dead, perhaps seasonally, until vaccines arrives), and the large-scale and extremely rapid social changes that have already taken place because of that threat, I don’t see anything particularly wrong in calling it a crisis unlike anything since WW2. The start of WW2 didn’t affect this many people this quickly.

This is precisely the problem in many of the “apocalyptic” models and predictions: they assume we will sit on our butts and do nothing whatever, which is utterly naive and unrealistic. Of course, we will do all kinds of things to oppose the spread of a deadly virus: as we observe all over the place.

Lots of folks are working on vaccines and treatments and masks and ventilators and ways to get by in quarantine; four hospitals are being built in New York City; Congress passed a $2 trillion bill to help folks survive during this emergency period [see an article and a follow-up on the many positive things that are happening in response to the virus]. But predictive “warning” models seem to so often assume a “static” non-response: as if human action and intervention are not even factors in outcomes and reasonable predictions.

I recognize the importance of worst-case scenarios. They have their place to make people realize real possibilities of what could actually happen. But then the media and the leftish doom-and-gloom outlook take that and present it as if no one could possibly disagree with it (i.e., have any alternate predictive model), in turn creating public hysteria and a fertile breeding-ground for all kinds of conspiracy theories right and left.

I think President Trump and his team fighting the virus have it exactly right: gather together the best minds in epidemiology and immunology, etc. (e.g., Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx; the latter has great experience dealing with AIDS), firmly level with the American people about temporary necessary preventive behavior, but also provide an equally necessary hope that we have the capacity to defeat this virus and minimize its destructiveness as much as possible, and place it into perspective with things like influenza, that we deal with every year, with many thousands of deaths.

Bottom line: your responses (and the left’s in general) seem to often assume “if we do nothing“: which is silly. These are the assumptions leading to dire predictions (tending to come from the left of the spectrum), that I am critiquing. That’s a false premise. On the other hand, I am acknowledging the distinct possibility also that it could get worse. So we both talk about hypotheticals and what might be, in our analyses. But I appear to have much more faith in human ingenuity and resolve and the power of science and reason to proactively fight against coronavirus and conquer it: including a big dose of good old “can do” American pragmatism.

There will still be great tragedy and human cost, but (I submit) far less than the left has imagined and set forth, in its pessimistic apocalypticism.

***

Brian Fraga says that “thousands of people have been infected, hundreds are dying every day.“

Referring to:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Fraga’s numbers seem reasonable.

I have no beef with that particular statement. It’s self-evidently true.

Brian Fraga also says there is “a national crisis on a scale that we arguably have not experienced as a nation since World War II”.

Again, this is a reasonable statement. Although you criticize his numbers by comparing various flu statistics with coronavirus, you only compare the numbers as they currently are today. Since the crisis is not caused by current numbers, but by the prospect of enormously greater numbers in the future, Fraga’s statement again seems quite reasonable.

You make the same extremely misleading comparison when you compare total swine flu numbers with coronavirus numbers as they exist today, so far. Total swine flu deaths were somewhere around a half million. For coronavirus, the total number (in an unmitigated scenario – i.e. only using currently available health methods) is estimated to be around 40 million deaths.

Well, we’ll see what the total turns out to be after this thing is over with, won’t we?

No matter what the total turns out to be, your comparison of numbers from a completed epidemic with the numbers from the beginning of another one will still be misleading. And you haven’t presented any reason to doubt the scientific predictions on the epidemiology of COVID-19.

***

Mary P. quotes numbers taken from a simulation that is similar to the one done at Imperial College in London. You do not make clear that she is quoting from a fairly scientific simulation of the possible effects of the coronavirus. Someone reading the post could easily get the impression that you are saying that she made up the numbers. She does not live in “an alternate universe”. The number she quotes are reasonable estimates of what will happen if nothing is done society-wide to make drastic changes in behavior.

Right. 392,000 [deaths] in New York alone. You find that reasonable, huh?

Ferguson’s number for New York state would be about 134,000. So, I don’t find that higher number (from a different simulation) unbelievable. It’s a very dangerous virus that can severely attack the lungs, is quite infectious, and is hitting a population with no pre-existing immunity. If it gets to the point of overwhelming available health resources, things get very bad, very quickly.

“Huh?” is not an answer. A genuine reply would be to look at the original paper, find what assumptions you disagree with, and point out how they change the conclusions.

***

Rebecca Hamilton’s estimate of 5% deaths is very likely too large. Current estimates would be 0.5%. Though I don’t think a sacrifice of that amount would somehow become acceptable.

Rebecca Hamilton claimed that Trump would find it fine and dandy for 16.5 million Americans to die. So you revise it down ten times lower. Now Trump wants 1.65 Americans to die on the altar of big business. Right. And you find all this quite plausible.

Trump (and every government) has a limited range of options. He’s picked one that seems, to him, the least bad. Unfortunately he’s not good at discerning from among different solutions. In particular, he doesn’t seem to like picking up solutions from other countries. (Look at Hong Kong and South Korea. I think everyone should be wearing face masks in public to prevent asymptomatic spread, and there should be extremely thorough testing, with legally enforced places of quarantine.)

***

In your other referred posting [link] you give a graph showing how the coronavirus curve can be flattened. Your graph (and all the others like it on the internet) is grossly misleading — the health care capacity dashed line should be way, way lower, sitting only slightly above the x-axis.

I had no intention of minute accuracy in the graph image I used. I was simply looking for a relevant image. So this is yet another silly non sequitur in your reply.

You didn’t find a relevant image, you found a common one. It’s common and very misleading. As depicted, it gives the impression that health resources just need a bit of a boost and we’ll be alright. The real graph shows how puny currently available resources are. (Needless to say, Ferguson’s graphs get it correct.)

Actually, however, the image (dated 3-12-20) does have to do directly with the present situation, according to its originator, Johannes Kalliauer (b. 1989), whose [seemingly “ambitious”] Wikidata page describes him as an “Austrian civil engineer, scientist, student, university teacher, researcher and academic.” You don’t like his claims? Take it up with him. He’s the Ph.D. candidate. It’s his contention. I was simply looking for an appropriate (non-copyrighted) image for my article.

***

You say that Neil Ferguson has “revised his estimates way down”. Your statement is somewhere between misleading and false. He made an estimate of 0.5 million UK deaths if no mitigating changes were made, and then after seeing some mitigating actions taken (closures and distancing and capacity increases), used exactly the same model to show that deaths might drop to about 20,000.

Precisely. This is why, in describing his initial prediction, I stated: “500,000 Brits and 2.2 million Americans might die if strict measures were not undertaken . . . ” [bolding presently]. You don’t read very well. You “lecture” back to me the very notion that I already affirmed. I was also explaining this to someone else tonight who didn’t get it about the initial predictions.

I read well. The full quote of yours that I was responding to was “500,000 Brits and 2.2 million Americans might die if strict measures were not undertaken, has now revised his estimates way down“. The word “revised” was at best horribly misleading. Nothing was revised. The higher and the lower numbers both came out of exactly the same paper. (I note that in the past few hours Ferguson sent out a tweet pointing out that nothing had been revised, despite what some in the media say.)

[This was a valid point. I removed the word “revised”; see below]

***

But Ferguson also showed — again using that same model — that although the numbers initially go down, they only go down for a while. They will pop right back up, as severely as ever, once the mitigating factors are taken away. That’s an important issue: how long can the mitigations remain in place?

Ferguson’s model doesn’t take into account the availability of testing. With a lot more testing, additional mitigations can be taken, and this may help — though by how much is not known.

I think you have a point that the word “revised” could be misleading, so I will change the words a bit. Of course I had no intention to mislead, as my qualifications already noted, demonstrate. I was referring to the fact that he is now saying that the numbers will be lower because strong measures have been taken (that he recommended be taken in the study itself).

***

Lastly: everyone’s talking about Dr. Neil Ferguson: and well they should. He’s an important figure, and deserves high praise for likely having saved many millions of lives. How many people can say that they have done that? It’s extraordinary. But why not also talk about someone like Israeli Nobel Prize winner and Stanford biophysicist Michael Levitt, who successfully predicted (with uncanny accuracy) that the Chinese deaths from coronavirus would start rapidly decreasing: when no one else seems to have thought it was possible or to have foreseen that it would happen so quickly.

And he predicted a week ago that Israel would have no more than ten deaths from coronavirus. Today there are 11 deaths out of 3,035 cases there (one out of every 276 cases, or 0.36%!), so he was off by one person (which isn’t even statistically significant: especially given that over 3,000 cases exist in Israel).

Why is it that we’re talking a lot less about the person who has made such accurate and stunning predictions? Isn’t that the sort of qualified, credentialed person we should consider and hear from, too? For if he did that; then perhaps he can also predict what will happen in the United States: how this deadly pandemic will play out. In an article from two days ago, his views were presented:

Michael Levitt . . . said his models do not support predictions the coronavirus will stick around for months or years and cause millions of deaths. He says the data do not support such an extreme scenario.

“What we need is to control the panic…we’re going to be fine,” Levitt told the Los Angeles Times. . . .

Levitt said he can see a better outcome in the U.S. than what has taken place in China, Italy or Iran, especially with social distancing measures in place. He said social-distancing mandates are critical in cutting the number of coronavirus cases.

He analyzed data from 78 countries that have reported more than 50 new infections each day and says he focuses on new cases rather than overall totals. Levitt said he sees “signs of recovery” in each of the countries.

“Numbers are still noisy, but there are clear signs of slowed growth,” he said.

Levitt did not offer a concrete date for when the U.S. may see a turning point against the outbreak, but added that “the real situation is not nearly as terrible as they make it out to be.”

He’s the one who has made two remarkably confirmed predictions. So why not consider his prediction for the US? I’m using his model for analyzing the new cases and deaths in each region, to track trends in US deaths every day. The deaths are still going up per day, but the rates of increase are decreasing (24% today, 30% yesterday and 36% the day before, for a decrease of 6% in the upward rate for two straight days). There were only ten more deaths yesterday than the day before.

This is highly significant, and shows that the “curve” is at the beginning of flattening. It will shortly be going down. Hence, for reasons like this, Dr. Levitt says “we’re going to be fine” and that it’s “not nearly as terrible as they make it out to be.” I believe him and I’m sticking with his analysis, because he has proven himself to be trustworthy in his predictions.

That is the scientific spirit as well: not only positing worst-case scenarios, but also making successful predictions based on observable data, and helping people to cope with and understand the situation by providing calm analysis, and (in this instance) good news that the nightmare won’t go on for months and years. That’s what Dr. Levitt is doing and what I am trying to do in my small way in imitation of him, and I submit that it is every bit as sensible and reasonable as the usual (typical) hysteria and paranoia and doom-and-gloom scenarios of leftist and leftish observers.

Ultra-pessimistic hysteria and perpetual apocalypticism are not the scientific outlook at all. They are, rather, the odd leftist equivalent and analogy of the false prophecies and antichrist prognostications and tin foil hat conspiracy theories of the wacko reactionary right of the theological spectrum.

See also the continuation of this discussion: Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20].

***

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: TheDigitalArtist (11-23-16) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic

March 26, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

Now, I have already offered blistering critiques (two times) of the political and theological “right” and how they have exploited the present crisis to set forth goofy, wacko conspiratorial, apocalyptic theories of God’s judgment and wrath, and why He is supposedly judging etc. But there is also a need to critique what is going on, on a wide scale, on the political and theological left (or “non-conservative” observers, if you will).

I have maintained for many years (my main article on this is 18 years old) that orthodox Catholicism is neither “right” nor “left.” It transcends those categories. And theological / ecclesiological dissidents on both the right and left end up espousing the same characteristics: pick-and-choose what they like of Church teaching and authority (“cafeteria” Catholics), and arbitrarily dissent wherever they choose: making private judgment their idol rather than consistently abiding by the biblical and Catholic notion of the magisterium and an authoritative, binding Church authority (infallibility and indefectibility).

But that takes us into very deep waters. Here I merely wish to chronicle some of the more dire and gloomy predictions coming from the left and/or independent end of the spectrum, observed at Patheos Catholic, where my own blog is also hosted.

Brian Fraga (assuredly very mild and temperate, compared to other examples below) wrote on 3-25-20:

I’m reminded of his straight talk these days as we all deal with the coronavirus pandemic, which has upended our lives and created a national crisis on a scale that we arguably have not experienced as a nation since World War II. Thousands of people have been infected, hundreds are dying every day, and we’re probably still weeks, if not months, away until the worst has passed.

I don’t see how this is true (at least not so far if it is still to come). The current yearly flu epidemic in the US is far worse than coronavirus has been here (again, at least so far):

The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22,000 deaths, 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations.

The 2019-2020 influenza outbreak is moderate to low in overall severity, but hospitalization rates are high among children and young adults.

“Rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are now the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic,” the agency said.

A total of 144 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported this season. That’s an increase of 8 since last week’s report. (“US flu death toll hits 22K, hospitalization rates high for children, young adults”: updated on 3-13-20)

By contrast, total deaths from coronavirus in the US, as of 47 minutes ago, according to Johns Hopkins University, stand at 1,046, with virtually no deaths of children and hardly anyone under 40 years old (and when they do — very rarely — occur, they are almost always associated with existing serious medical conditions). To put this into perspective, the coronavirus deaths right now are 5% of the current flu deaths. Moreover:

[A] research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic [swine flu] at more than 284,000, . . .

The current worldwide death toll from coronavirus is 22,184, or 8% of the figure during the swine flu epidemic 10-11 years ago. It will grow (we know not how much), but that’s what it is so far. Perhaps the most prominent and/or influential epidemiologist in the world is already greatly walking back his original projections (see below).

Mary P. wrote on 3-23-20:, about New York state alone:

[T]hree hundred ninety-two thousand are predicted to die. 342,000 of those people marked for death might be saved if the whole state remains sheltering in place and if we’re very fortunate.

Really? The current death toll in New York (unarguably the worst place in the country right now, for infection) is 366. But Mary thinks up to 392,000 may die there alone? That’s 17.67 times the number for the entire world right now. She lives in an alternate universe.

Rebecca Hamilton offers a treasure-trove of passionately stated hysteria and out-of-control rhetoric:

He [President Trump] has now made it clear that he intends to deliberately and with full knowledge of what he is doing sacrifice the lives of a minimum of around 5% of the population in order to get the economy going. . . .

Trump’s toady press is working overtime to sell Trump’s followers on accepting their own deaths at the hands of their president. (3-25-20)

The estimated US population right now is 330,488,824. 5% of that total is 16.5 million people. Rebecca would have us believe that this is the number of people President Trump (whom she calls a “monster” and “probably a psychopath”) deliberately and with full intent desires to be allowed to die in order to save our economy (it’s almost the Holocaust x 3). She, too, lives in a fantasy world of her own making. Does she not own a calculator, for heaven’s sake? But that’s not all:

[N]ow some of the so-called pro life people in the Republican Party are pushing for indirectly euthanizing elderly people for the sake of the economy. (3-24-20)

This is a complete distortion of what one person said, but it’s so self-evidently a twisting, that I refuse to waste any time showing how.

***

Meanwhile, Neil Ferguson, the scientist behind the bombshell coronavirus study that influenced Trump’s decisions and mentioned a 15-day shutdown, which stated that 500,000 Brits and 2.2 million Americans might die if strict measures were not undertaken, is now on record stating that because quarantine / social distancing measures being taken in the UK and the US (that he had recommended in his study) are working and vastly lowering the death rates, that he thinks the death toll will be less than 20,000 in England and possibly much lower. He also believes that the hospitals in the UK and intensive care units will be able to handle the virus. As of right now, total coronavirus deaths in the UK are 479.

One English article noted:

Influenza can lead to thousands of deaths a year, with the University of Oxford stating that in 2008-2009, there were 13,000 deaths in the UK alone related to the flu.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that an average of up to 500,000 people die annually across the globe due to the flu.

Since October alone, 20,000 people died from flu complications in the US, . . .

Have you also heard that Dr. Anthony Fauci, a giant in the field, is supposedly fighting with the President? Not according to his own report, as of two days ago:

“That is really unfortunate. I would wish that would stop because we have a much bigger problem here than trying to point out differences,” Fauci said. “There really fundamentally at the core … are not differences.”

Fauci said that Trump does listen to his expertise and the opinions of other officials on the task force.

“The president has listened to what I have said and what the other people on the task force have said. When I have made recommendations he has taken them,” Fauci added. “The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful.”

Moreover, the Director of the World Health Organization has also praised President Trump’s response and actions with regard to the virus:

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the United Nations health agency has repeatedly called for the heads of state to lead a “whole of government” response to COVID-19 and said Trump was leading by example.

“That’s exactly what he’s doing, which we appreciate because fighting this pandemic needs political commitment,” Tedros said during an afternoon press briefing in Geneva.

Tedros said he and Trump had recently spoken and that the president is “doing all he can.”

“I believe that kind of political commitment and political leadership can bring change or can stop this pandemic,” Tedros said.

The American people agree, by a 3-to-2 margin, according to a Gallup Poll of American adults taken on 3-22-20. He received a 60% approval and 38% disapproval, concerning his actions taken to stop the spread of the virus. An Axios-Harris Poll four days earlier (also of adults: almost twice as many) showed a similar margin of approval of 56% to 44% disapproval.

This is likely driving heightened popularity of the President in general. Two polls of registered voters, from four and three days ago (Monmouth and The Hill/HarrisX) showed him having equal numbers of approval and disapproval. This has almost never happened during his presidency (I know, because I often check his approval numbers).

***

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Mini-Debate on Laying Blame for Lack of Knowledge of Coronavirus, and Irresponsibility (vs. Jon Curry) [Facebook, 4-5-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: [public domain / Free SVG]

***

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan)

March 26, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

The following commentary comes from Dr. JD Donovan. His credentials follow:

Dr. JD Donovan received his BS degree in Chemistry from the University of Notre Dame and his PhD in Biophysics and Theoretical Biology from the University of Chicago.

*

Always pursuing interdisciplinary topics, he has worked in university departments ranging from Physics to Physiology as well as industrial basic research developing new technologies for diagnostic testing. As a teacher, he has served mostly in small liberal arts colleges where he presented courses that span the sciences, from evolutionary biology through chemistry to cosmology. His special joy, though, is to lead courses that explore the interface between science and humanities. His enthusiasm for teaching comes through to his students who voted him runner up for teacher of the year at the University of Florida, and to his college president who nominated him for the Carnegie Foundation’s US Professor of the Year Award. He recently retired from academic life (in his own words, he’s “a recovering academic”) and was appointed Professor Emeritus at North Central College in Illinois.

*

A practicing Catholic, he has served in various ministries in his parishes over the years, particularly in liturgy and in Peace and Justice committees. He also has special devotion to St. John of the Cross, St. Theresa of Lisieux, and Servant of God Dorothy Day.

*

JD has tried to put both his faith and his analytical side to good work. Among other things, he is a founder and Past President of his local Habitat for Humanity affiliate, Past President of HFH Illinois, founding member of the Waukegan School Board Ethics Committee, and Past President of Waukegan Main Street.

*

Finally, JD is a member of the American Physical Society, the AAAS, Institute for the Theological Encounter of Science and Technology, and the Society of Catholic Scientists.

Though this email may seem critical, please consider it instead as a teacher helping his student with his statistics homework.

After reading your first post on March 24th about coronavirus deaths, I went to the source that you linked to (I was not aware of it, so
thanks) and started doing some analysis.

I agree that there is reason for hope, that social distancing is working, and the curve is flattening. But it’s not for the reasons you give; the growth in daily deaths does not yet show signs of leveling off. I’ll explain why, but first, let’s talk about other hopeful hints in the data that I see in my analysis, and then turn to the daily deaths data.

As you’re aware, an epidemic first has an exponential phase which can’t go on forever: all epidemics eventually peak. When looking at cumulative data (whether new cases or deaths), the graph over time first curves up, then becomes straight, and eventually levels off and stays there. If you go to the Johns Hopkins website, the China and S. Korea data illustrate this very well. You can see those curves by selecting those
countries and looking at the graph of confirmed cases on the lower right of the screen. The part of the graph on the left that curves up is the exponential phase, the straight part of the graph is the linear phase, and the flattening is the final phase.

That language was kind of vague so first let me clarify what “exponential” and “linear” mean beyond the vague words “curves up” and “looks straight.” A theologian (you) knows as well as a scientist (me) that precise definition is essential.

A linear graph increases by the same amount each day. For example, if a curve goes up by 100 each day, it gives a straight line. By contrast, an exponential curve increases by the same percent each day. For example, if a curve goes up by 24% each day, it goes up more and more each day and doubles every 3 days. When we look at that, we say it curves up.

Now the hopeful thing for me is that in the US data, the graph of confirmed cases in the lower right, appears to be entering the linear phase. It’s approaching a straight line without being upwardly curved any more. This jibes with the graph on the daily increase tab of that same chart in the lower right. The daily increase in confirmed cases is leveling off, giving almost the same number of new cases each day, though it has not yet peaked. As I explained to my adult daughter yesterday, it isn’t the beginning of the end but it does indicate the end of the beginning. I suspect (but being a scientist, I will wait for more data before saying so definitively) that the daily increase in confirmed cases will peak this week, which will cause the cumulative confirmed cases curve* to begin slowly leveling off. There is light at the end of this tunnel.

Now, let’s look at the deaths data. Because deaths from Covid occur about a week after case confirmation, one would not expect deaths to enter the linear phase until about a week after cases themselves did. Regrettably, the linked website does not give a graph of the deaths, only the confirmed cases, but the data that you’ve accumulated does allow us to analyze this.

If you make a graph of your data of deaths versus time (205, 260, 340. . . 1046), you’ll see that the graph curves upward. That indicates the exponential phase.

You also calculate and report the percent increase per day and, as you point out, the percentage looks to be trending lower or flat. If it is flat–meaning the percent increase is the same each day–that is the precise definition of the exponential phase of the graph. Deaths, alas, continue their exponential rise and show no sign of leveling off.

You correctly note that there is some variation in the percent increase as it bounces around and you report its average as 32%. I’m sure you’re aware that statistics always show variation (that’s why we need statistics) but you may not have a feel for the expected size of the statistical fluctuations. Without going into the math, I’ll say that the standard deviation (the size of the fluctuation) for numbers around 200 is about 7. (If
you want a stats lesson and an explanation of how I got that number, let me know.)

With a standard deviation of 7, then any differences within 7 units of the average is probably nothing more than random and doesn’t indicate a trend. Since the average in your reported data is 32, then anything between 25 to 39 would count as normal variation. And that is what you’ve observed. That means it’s too early to say that the percent increase in deaths is trending lower. It appears not to be, so we still need to wait.

Summarizing, I applaud your expressions of hope as appropriate for a Christian Catholic. I applaud your initiative for trying to figure things out and uplift others. I thank you for pointing me to that data source. I encourage to keep tracking the percent changes in deaths and suggest that you also watch the confirmed cases graphs and numbers which should serve as an early warning of the approaching peak in the number of deaths. I also caution you about expressing too much optimism. Dr. Anthony Fauci is a great model for us to follow with his careful language and nuanced statements.

Finally, with all that you as apologist have taught me or at least made me think about in the past couple years, I feel graced to have maybe returned the favor from over here in my specialty.

JD Donovan PhD

* I claim extra points for that alliteration.

***

US Coronavirus Deaths: Elderly with Preconditions [3-13-20]

The Bible on Germs, Sanitation, & Infectious Diseases [3-16-20]

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: Johannes Kalliauer (3-12-20). Spatial/Social distancing delays the further spread of a virus and preserves the capacity of the health system [Wikimedia Commons / Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license]

***

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis

March 24, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

[written yesterday on my Facebook page]

***

I will continue to be optimistic, faithful, hopeful, humorous, always grounded in Holy Scripture and the Holy Catholic Church and apostolic Tradition; seeking to put things in worldwide and historical perspective; while always seeking to be realistic about the true issues and dangers we are facing.

I will not be pessimistic, grumbling and complaining, running down Holy Mother Church or the Holy Father or bishops or priests (or local or national governments).

I will not be paranoid, hysterical, gossipy, apocalyptic, fanatical, or conspiratorial.

I will continue to present facts, as best they can be ascertained: including more “bright” forecasts in the scheme of things. Prediction is, by nature, an imperfect process, but the ones who have sunnier predictions have just as much “right” to make them (if they provide reasons) as the naysayers and temperamentally doom-and-gloomers. Don’t be fooled by the “100% of scientists think . . . ” routine and canard.

I will call out the reactionaries in particular who are trying to exploit the crisis for their own ends: whether it is yet more (endless) bashing of popes and bishops, or absurd speculations about God’s judgment, or (as I saw today), claims that bishops go against canon law in observing obviously necessary quarantine measures.

I will continue to do my writing and apologetics, as I always have (my life hasn’t changed that much): bringing you relevant material at no cost (though all donations are always appreciated).

***

The Bible on Germs, Sanitation, & Infectious Diseases [3-16-20]

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Photo credit: Mediamodifier (1-13-18) [Pixabay / Pixabay License]

***

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath

March 19, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

This is an exchange on my Facebook page with Timothy Flanders, who appeared in the videos with Taylor Marshall, that I critiqued in my paper, Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]. His words will be in blue. Any further replies from him will be added to this paper.

*****

If I understand you correctly here, you have selectively quoted the OT, making your argument lack force, and sound more like a hit piece, with due respect. David asks God your exact question in the OT passage from II Kings that we discussed in this video.

24:17 And David said to the Lord, when he saw the angel striking the people: It is I; I am he that have sinned, I have done wickedly: these that are the sheep, what have they done? let thy hand, I beseech thee, be turned against me, and against my father’s house.

Again, if I’ve understood your argument correctly, this verse alone disproves your entire argumentation in this article. You contend that Marshall and myself have to explain why the Holy Father is not stricken with the virus but Alexander is, yet David himself asks this very question in the context of God’s wrath.

With respect,

Timothy

As I noted, these observations are only a tiny portion of my entire writing on the topic of both God’s judgment and disease. I’ve written many articles on both. I also stated that “the overall picture: taking all of the Bible into account, is far more complex and multi-faceted” and “I want to highlight one particular aspect of Marshall’s claims” [bolding presently]. I also cited you [from the videos], to be totally fair about this, saying, “This falls on many innocent souls who had nothing to do with any of this stuff.”

So I understand that. The main disagreement here is between you and Marshall and myself, along with all who believe in biblical inspiration, over against the modernist and liberal so-called Bible scholars.

My case here remains utterly unaffected by this critique, because it is of a particular nature. I think I explained it well enough (of course I always think that!). But to concisely summarize:

1) Taylor Marshall appealed to the OT teaching on judgment (mocking those who dismiss it), to explain and interpret the coronavirus.

2) He specifically applied it to the current situation as a judgment against the alleged “Pachamama” idolatry.

[claiming it is divine wrath, and that it’s because of the Vatican ceremony, are both sheer speculations]

3) I agree with this OT teaching on divine wrath, as one article of mine in particular, proves.

4) A key part of this judgment motif is that God (typically, but not always) judges individuals and groups for the sins that they themselves have committed. He “singles them out,” in other words.

5) #4 doesn’t fit the current state of affairs, under Marshall’s hypothesis (#2), insofar as the ones guilty of the alleged idolatry that is supposedly the initiating cause of the alleged divine judgment and wrath (especially Pope Francis) seem to be undergoing no great suffering.

6) On the other hand, the person most known for opposing the alleged idolatry (which in fact did not take place, as shown ad infinitum), Alexander Tschugguel, has himself contacted the virus.

This makes no sense under the paradigm you have set up. In effect, God would be judging the “Jeremiah” that He Himself has sent to warn about the coming judgment. Marshall mentioned in the video about the Jews being judged via the Babylonians, and losing their temple. Who was warning them about it? That was Jeremiah the prophet. And who is warning us today? Supposedly, the heroic Alexander Tschugguel, who fearlessly (after committing an act of theft) disposed of the alleged idols, Boniface-and Elijah-like.

Scripture teaches that in particular judgments, the ones committing the sins are judged; not the ones warning about the sins.

7) Therefore, the hypothesis of #2 (taking into account #4, which is entailed by #1), appears to be falsified, by Marshall’s own OT criterion.

8) Moreover, you two have argued that the cessation of Masses in Rome is part of God’s judgment for “Pachamama”. Thus, you yourself make a particular application of judgment in that case, yet you want to make an exception or create an “anomaly” when it comes to Alexander over against Pope Francis and all the other alleged wicked, apostate, heretical bishops.

Why? Extreme presumption and internal incoherence and inconsistency rule the day. I think you have to go back and reconsider your several false premises to see where your reasoning has gone awry.

I’m glad you brought up King David. In this instance, he did not suffer, and his people did. Sometimes that is how it is in Scripture. But of course, in the case of David’s murder and adultery, he did suffer terribly. One son died and another led a rebellion against him. Many other kings were struck down by God because of their sins.

So why wouldn’t God do this with Pope Francis, if he is so terrible?

I won’t even get into how utterly ridiculous it is to classify the temporary shutting-down of churches in a country [Italy] which currently has 35,713 coronavirus cases (the second-highest figure after China), with 2,978 dead so far (475 more since yesterday), in order to stop the spread of a super-infectious virus, as “God’s wrath.”

In fact, this is simply following biblical injunctions from the Mosaic Law, which indeed stopped the spread of infectious diseases 3000 years before modern science figured out germ theory and the laws of contagion.

If they didn’t do this during the Black Death, it was because they had no idea of how it was spread. It wasn’t necessarily heroic faith, but it had to do far more with massive ignorance.

A reasonable interpretation of the alarming spread in Italy is to note the fact that it has the third oldest average age in Europe, after Monaco and Germany (which is presently fifth in the world in numbers of infections), and the sixth-oldest population in the entire world.

We know that Coronavirus attacks older people exponentially more than young (virtually every one of the now 100+ victims in the US are over 50: most over 60, and the bulk of those 70 and older).

So the sensible and obvious thing to do is to stop public gatherings as much as possible, and that includes Masses. That’s not God’s wrath or “self-interdiction.” It’s a straightforward application of loving our neighbor, so that they won’t die from viral infection.

How is Alexander doing now? Have you heard news of any improvement yet?

[ received no reply, so I inquired on the Internet:

Alexander Tschugguel, 26, of Vienna, Austria, . . . has been hospitalized today due to having contracted the coronavirus.

Alexander has been at home in bed with fever for nine days and is very weak. He texted me yesterday only to say he was too weak to speak. Today, he was admitted to hospital, and first reports suggest that his life is not in danger. [3-18-20 on a reactionary site]

I had asked my readers to pray for him in my previous paper, and added: “Let’s continue praying. It sounds like he has some serious immune deficiency problems.” Then I found a message straight from Alexander himself:

After so many of you already know about my state of health I wanted to thank you all deeply for all the prayers and support I get.

It is now day 11 with the virus and up until now it did not get any better. After I have been in home quarantine until yesterday morning my wife and I decided that it got worse and that I have to go to the hospital. Now I am here and they take good care of me. Please continue to pray! Especially for the ones who got hit by the Virus as hard as me or even harder but who can not have all this help and this support. Let us always pray for the sick and old, for the ones who do not have families or friends which take care of them.

As soon as I am healthy again, God willing, I will write another update here.

Yours,

Alexander

Christ will win!

Ps:

I am sorry that I can not answer your private messages right now. It is too much.

Please continue to keep him in prayer]

***

Here is some more data about how God judges. According to Taylor Marshall and Timothy Flanders, coronavirus is His wrath for supposed idolatry in the Vatican, in the tree-planting ceremony. It would be very difficult to prove such a thing, but let’s accept it for a moment, for the sake of argument. It would mean that our loving God, Who became a man and died on the cross on our behalf, decided in His wrath to afflict (as of the latest statistics), over 222,000 people; 9,115 of them fatally, because of one ceremony in the Vatican (which I strongly believe — and have proven by fact and reason, many times –, was wildly and wrongly misinterpreted, and lied about by reactionaries, in violation of the Ten Commandments).

These figures include 8,154 cases in China, including 3,249 deaths, or 36% of all fatalities. Yet what would China have to do with a ceremony in the Vatican? That is not how God’s judgment works! I’ve already noted above the current figure for Italy, which has 33% of all fatalities. We now know that, according to a Bloomberg article (3-18-20):

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority. . . .

The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.

The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older . . . The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.

So, please note what this entails: we’re told that God is judging via the coronavirus. The biggest sin and alleged precipitating cause for this occurred in Italy. But did God go after the very ones who allegedly committed it (the pope, cardinals, bishops, and those who agreed with their acts?). No, not at all. Instead (in Taylor Marshall’s absurd scenario), God looked around for elderly people (average age of the dead: 79.5 years), and particularly those who already had two or three other diseases (high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease), and killed them, up to the tune of 33% of all worldwide fatalities. These are the people God in His omnipotence and providence decided to judge and kill by His wrath. That is supposedly just and loving.

Another of Taylor Marshall’s blasphemous theories is that God is also judging because the pope (so he pontificates) abandoned Chinese Christians. So who does God go after in retribution for that? Not Pope Francis, the alleged perpetrator, but . . . the Chinese (!): most of whom, no doubt (i.e., among the victims), are not even Christians: 3,249 deaths there, and 36% of all fatalities. That’s God’s judgment and wrath, you see! Does that make any sense? Of course not. It’s equal parts outrageous and absurd. It’s certainly not consistent with the God revealed in the inspired revelation of the Bible.

This is not only outrageously false and unbiblical, but literally blasphemous (how ironic, in the midst of a false charge that the pope and bishops were supposedly committing sacrilegious idolatry). If this is the nature of the God Whom Christians serve, count me out. I’m gone yesterday. Thankfully, it is not the God I know and the true God revealed in the Bible. He is fair and just in His judgments: terrible though they may sometimes seem from our perspective. If He judges a nation, it’s because most of the entire nation has gone astray, and are ripe for judgment, as part of the collective.

God used the Babylonians to judge even the Jews, the chosen people, after they massively engaged in idolatry and other sins and abandoned Him (Jeremiah chapters 49-52). But He also judged Babylon:

Isaiah 14:22-23 (RSV) “I will rise up against them,” says the LORD of hosts, “and will cut off from Babylon name and remnant, offspring and posterity, says the LORD. [23] And I will make it a possession of the hedgehog, and pools of water, and I will sweep it with the broom of destruction, says the LORD of hosts.”

Nations who opposed Israel became incorrigibly wicked, and God judged them:

Isaiah 19:17 And the land of Judah will become a terror to the Egyptians; every one to whom it is mentioned will fear because of the purpose which the LORD of hosts has purposed against them.

Isaiah 30:31 The Assyrians will be terror-stricken at the voice of the LORD, when he smites with his rod.

Isaiah 34:5, 9 For my sword has drunk its fill in the heavens; behold, it descends for judgment upon Edom, upon the people I have doomed. . . . [9] And the streams of Edom shall be turned into pitch, and her soil into brimstone; her land shall become burning pitch.

Jeremiah 47:1, 4 The word of the LORD that came to Jeremiah the prophet concerning the Philistines, before Pharaoh smote Gaza.. . . [4] because of the day that is coming to destroy all the Philistines, to cut off from Tyre and Sidon every helper that remains. For the LORD is destroying the Philistines, the remnant of the coastland of Caphtor.

Ezekiel 25:2-3 “Son of man, set your face toward the Ammonites, and prophesy against them. [3] Say to the Ammonites, Hear the word of the Lord GOD: Thus says the Lord GOD, Because you said, `Aha!’ over my sanctuary when it was profaned, and over the land of Israel when it was made desolate, and over the house of Judah when it went into exile;

This is what God does: He judges wicked nations (including His own chosen people, several times). When virtually the whole world became wicked in the time of Noah, He judged it, too. What He doesn’t do, on the other hand, is judge people who had nothing to do with one alleged sin, for that sin. He judges individuals or relatively smaller groups for their own sins, as I documented last time. Here are a few more examples:

2 Kings 9:33-37 He said, “Throw her down.” So they threw her down; and some of her blood spattered on the wall and on the horses, and they trampled on her. [34] Then he went in and ate and drank; and he said, “See now to this cursed woman, and bury her; for she is a king’s daughter.” [35] But when they went to bury her, they found no more of her than the skull and the feet and the palms of her hands. [36] When they came back and told him, he said, “This is the word of the LORD, which he spoke by his servant Eli’jah the Tishbite, `In the territory of Jezreel the dogs shall eat the flesh of Jez’ebel; [37] and the corpse of Jez’ebel shall be as dung upon the face of the field in the territory of Jezreel, so that no one can say, This is Jez’ebel.'”

Jeremiah 29:21-22 `Thus says the LORD of hosts, the God of Israel, concerning Ahab the son of Kola’iah and Zedeki’ah the son of Ma-asei’ah, who are prophesying a lie to you in my name: Behold, I will deliver them into the hand of Nebuchadrez’zar king of Babylon, and he shall slay them before your eyes. [22] Because of them this curse shall be used by all the exiles from Judah in Babylon: “The LORD make you like Zedeki’ah and Ahab, whom the king of Babylon roasted in the fire,”

Acts 5:1-10 But a man named Anani’as with his wife Sapphi’ra sold a piece of property, [2] and with his wife’s knowledge he kept back some of the proceeds, and brought only a part and laid it at the apostles’ feet. [3] But Peter said, “Anani’as, why has Satan filled your heart to lie to the Holy Spirit and to keep back part of the proceeds of the land? [4] While it remained unsold, did it not remain your own? And after it was sold, was it not at your disposal? How is it that you have contrived this deed in your heart? You have not lied to men but to God.” [5] When Anani’as heard these words, he fell down and died. And great fear came upon all who heard of it. [6] The young men rose and wrapped him up and carried him out and buried him. [7] After an interval of about three hours his wife came in, not knowing what had happened. [8] And Peter said to her, “Tell me whether you sold the land for so much.” And she said, “Yes, for so much.” [9] But Peter said to her, “How is it that you have agreed together to tempt the Spirit of the Lord? Hark, the feet of those that have buried your husband are at the door, and they will carry you out.” [10] Immediately she fell down at his feet and died. When the young men came in they found her dead, and they carried her out and buried her beside her husband.

1 Corinthians 11:27-30 Whoever, therefore, eats the bread or drinks the cup of the Lord in an unworthy manner will be guilty of profaning the body and blood of the Lord. [28] Let a man examine himself, and so eat of the bread and drink of the cup. [29] For any one who eats and drinks without discerning the body eats and drinks judgment upon himself. [30] That is why many of you are weak and ill, and some have died.

Revelation 2:12-16 “And to the angel of the church in Per’gamum write: `The words of him who has the sharp two-edged sword. [13] “`I know where you dwell, where Satan’s throne is; you hold fast my name and you did not deny my faith even in the days of An’tipas my witness, my faithful one, who was killed among you, where Satan dwells. [14] But I have a few things against you: you have some there who hold the teaching of Balaam, who taught Balak to put a stumbling block before the sons of Israel, that they might eat food sacrificed to idols and practice immorality. [15] So you also have some who hold the teaching of the Nicola’itans. [16] Repent then. If not, I will come to you soon and war against them with the sword of my mouth.

I simply can’t find in the Bible a “judgement” or “wrath” such as Taylor Marshall and Timothy Flanders posit in the present case. There are plenty of very widespread sins that God might conceivably judge (and on a very wide scale): abortion, homosexual acts, economic exploitation, making riches or power into an idol, pornography, sexual trafficking, drug dealing, sexual abuse, terrorism, racial and ethnic prejudice, sexism, on and on and on. He could incinerate the United States to ashes in the next hour and we could say nothing in our defense: due to abortion alone; not even getting into many other serious sins we commit and even sanction by unjust, immoral laws. It would be perfectly just for Him to do so.

But none of that is mentioned when Marshall and Flanders talk about God’s wrath: only one ceremony which they (along with legions of reactionaries) never understood in the first place; which was a Catholic ceremony, without any idolatry at all. See my many articles regarding it. Such are so many falsehoods currently being spread about Pope Francis. May God open the eyes and have mercy on the souls of those who broadcast them, unwillingly or willingly.

Ecclesiastes 10:20 Even in your thought, do not curse the king, . . .

Titus 3:1-2 Remind them to be submissive to rulers and authorities, to be obedient, to be ready for any honest work, [2] to speak evil of no one, to avoid quarreling, to be gentle, and to show perfect courtesy toward all men.

Acts 23:1-5 And Paul, looking intently at the council, said, “Brethren, I have lived before God in all good conscience up to this day.” [2] And the high priest Anani’as commanded those who stood by him to strike him on the mouth. [3] Then Paul said to him, “God shall strike you, you whitewashed wall! Are you sitting to judge me according to the law, and yet contrary to the law you order me to be struck?” [4] Those who stood by said, “Would you revile God’s high priest?” [5] And Paul said, “I did not know, brethren, that he was the high priest; for it is written, `You shall not speak evil of a ruler of your people.’”

***

Taylor Marshall: Pachamama “Idolatry” Judged by Coronavirus (Yet “Antichrist” Pope Francis Walks the Streets of Pandemic-Ravaged Rome Free of the Virus . . .) [3-17-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Mini-Debate on Laying Blame for Lack of Knowledge of Coronavirus, and Irresponsibility (vs. Jon Curry) [Facebook, 4-5-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

Unfortunately, Money Trees Do Not Exist: If you have been aided in any way by my work, or think it is valuable and worthwhile, please strongly consider financially supporting it (even $10 / month — a mere 33 cents a day — would be very helpful). I have been a full-time Catholic apologist since Dec. 2001, and have been writing Christian apologetics since 1981 (see my Resume). My work has been proven (by God’s grace alone) to be fruitful, in terms of changing lives (see the tangible evidences from unsolicited “testimonies”). I have to pay my bills like all of you: and have a (homeschooling) wife and two children still at home to provide for, and a mortgage to pay.

My book royalties from three bestsellers in the field (published in 2003-2007) have been decreasing, as has my overall income, making it increasingly difficult to make ends meet. I provide over 2700 free articles here, for the purpose of your edification and education, and have written 50 books. It’ll literally be a struggle to survive financially until Dec. 2020, when both my wife and I will be receiving Social Security. If you cannot contribute, I ask for your prayers (and “likes” and links and shares). Thanks!

See my information on how to donate (including 100% tax-deductible donations). It’s very simple to contribute to my apostolate via PayPal, if a tax deduction is not needed (my “business name” there is called “Catholic Used Book Service,” from my old bookselling days 17 or so years ago, but send to my email: apologistdave@gmail.com). Another easy way to send and receive money (with a bank account or a mobile phone) is through Zelle. Again, just send to my e-mail address. May God abundantly bless you.

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Photo credit: Queen Jezebel Being Punished by Jehu, by Andrea Celesti (1637-1712) [public domain / Wikimedia Commons]

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US Coronavirus Deaths: Elderly with Preconditions

March 13, 2020 By Dave Armstrong

Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Pandemic Stats (as of 10 AM ET, 3-13-20):

Confirmed cases worldwide: 137,066

Total deaths: 3,337 (2.4%)

Total recovered: 64,374 (47%)

***

Cases in US: 1701 (it was 1663 12 hours earlier)

Deaths in US: 40 (2.4%)

(31: Washington state, 4: California, 2: Florida, 1: Georgia, 1: New Jersey, 1: South Dakota)

22 (or 23) of the deaths (71% or 74%) in Washington (and 55% or 58%of all US deaths) occurred in one nursing care / rehabilitation center: Life Care Center of Kirkland. In Washington, as of 5:12 AM, 3-13-20, 60% of all cases (270 of 447) were in King County, and another 24% (108) in neighboring Snohomish County (84% in two counties). Journalist Sharyl Attkisson described ten additional deaths in Washington (newly reported on 3-13-20):

Two women in their 90s at Life Care Center died on March 6.

A woman in her 80s at Life Care Center died on March 6.
A man in his 70s at Overlake Medical Center died on March 4.
A man in his 80s at Swedish Issaquah hospital, died on March 9.

Woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions died on March 11.

Four Washington state deaths are from Snohomish County

A woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions died March 11.

Woman in her 80s with underlying health conditions died March 10.

Man in his 80s with underlying health conditions, died March 9 at the Josephine Caring Community

A man in his 40s with underlying health conditions died but the date has not been specified.

One Washington State death is from Grant County, a patient in his or her 80s.

As for the two deaths in Florida: “Both individuals were reportedly in their 70s and had recently returned from traveling abroad.”

One of the four deaths in California, in Los Angeles County, was “a woman over 60 who had underlying health conditions and had recently traveled extensively over the past month, including having a long layover in South Korea”.

A second of the four California deaths (in Placer County) was “an elderly adult with underlying health conditions . . . likely exposed to the virus while he travel[ed] in February on a Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico, officials said in a statement.”

A third death, from Santa Clara County was a woman in her 60s.

The fourth was in Sacramento County: “The person was described as being in their 90’s who was in an assisted living facility and had an underlying health condition.”

The one person who died in Georgia was a “67-year-old . . . man who . . . also had underlying medical conditions.”

The one person who died in New Jersey “was 69 . . . with a history of serious health problems, including diabetes, high blood pressure and emphysema, . . .”

The one person who died in South Dakota “was a man between the age of 60 and 69 . . . [with] underlying medical conditions.”

Since I first wrote this article (eight new deaths have occurred in a day), in Colorado, “A woman in her 80s with underlying health conditions has died.”

As of 3-14-20, 37 out of 48 total US deaths (77%) have been in Washington state (almost all, elderly persons, and most with other conditions).

Anyone can easily grasp what is going on here: All nine deaths outside of Washington (in the US) were persons at least 60 years old: most 70s or older; almost all had underlying health conditions, and a statistically significant number had recently traveled to other countries. 22 or 23 of 31 deaths due to the virus in Washington state were elderly residents of one nursing home.

I’ve looked up all these cases and have yet to find a single one (31 out of the 40 deaths in the US) where the person was younger than 60 (and was perfectly healthy otherwise, etc.).

Though the overall situation is very different in China, still it’s obvious that the elderly and already sick were and are at far greater risk:

Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

Let me hasten to add that, of course, I am not implying at all that elderly lives are more disposable or expendable, or less to be concerned about (I’m 61 myself!). My point is that flu and other viruses always attack the elderly and those with existing conditions far more disproportionately. Moreover, of 1,760 current cases in the US, only 1% (10) are “critical”; 99% (1,750) are “in mild condition.”

In other words, there is no reason for a nationwide panic. That’s not to deny the deeply and profoundly serious nature of what we face over the next few months at a minimum. We need to take sensible, rational precautions (most importantly for the elderly and those with any medical condition) — thoroughly wash hands, avoid unnecessary contact and large crowds, stay home if sick, do whatever else is being recommended by the experts in the field. But panic and hysteria and excessive, unwarranted fears aren’t going to help matters at all.

***

Similar articles by the reputable journalist Sharyl Attkisson closely reflect my own thinking (at least so far):

“Coronavirus: Facts vs. Panic” (updated 3-13-20)

“Older or Unhealthy: The first 48 U.S. coronavirus deaths in detail” (updated 3-14-20)

“UPDATED: The first 105 U.S. coronavirus deaths by state and age” (3-17-20)

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Addendum (3-14-20): “Kansas Coronavirus Death Involves Same Nursing Home Owner As Deadly Seattle Outbreak”. Excerpt:

The first person to die of COVID-19 in Kansas stayed at a long-term care facility in Wyandotte County owned by the national chain with a suburban Seattle facility tied to 22 deaths from the virus.

Friday’s news comes as Wichita reported its first case of the novel coronavirus, involving a man who had taken a Caribbean cruise. That brings the state’s total known cases to six.

Kansas Secretary of Health and Environment Lee Norman says the Wyandotte County man in his 70s who died Wednesday was staying at Life Care Center of Kansas City. It remains unclear how the virus reached the man, Norman said.

***

Alexander Tschugguel, Taylor Marshall, & God’s Wrath [3-19-20]

My Outlook & Goals During This Coronavirus Crisis [3-24-20]

Explanation of Coronavirus Statistics (Dr. JD Donovan) [3-26-20]

“Black Death” Mentality On Display at Patheos Catholic [3-26-20]

Dialogue: [Irrational?] Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus [3-27-20]

Dialogue on Leftish Reactions to Coronavirus, Part II [3-27-20]

Why Has Italy Suffered the Most from Coronavirus? (+ Reflections on the Propriety of Using the Term, “Chinese Flu” / Condemnation of Anti-Chinese Prejudice) [3-28-20]

Reply to Unfair Criticisms of Trump Re Coronavirus [4-4-20]

Mini-Debate on Laying Blame for Lack of Knowledge of Coronavirus, and Irresponsibility (vs. Jon Curry) [Facebook, 4-5-20]

Coronavirus: Chris Ferrara vs. Science & Historical Precedent (Social Distancing Was Used in the 1918 Flu Pandemic and Has Been Shown Again and Again to be Highly Effective) [4-7-20]

Will US Coronavirus Deaths Be Far Less than Predicted? [4-7-20]

***

(3-13-20; some additions and revisions on 3-14-20)

Photo credit: CDC/Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAMS [National Park Service web page]

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